Wiggins vs Nibali, Who is the Best Climber in a GT?

[del1962]

No one biting today? What a pity.

But, back on topic, after yesterdays show it is quite clear. Nibali will get slaughtered in the Giro, uphill and in the TT's. His only hope will be the descend of the Gavia-Stelivio stage.

Why is that, Nibali finished ahead of Rodriguez on the mountain top finish in T-A

I suspect that there will be only marginal differences between them on climbs

 

[wwabbit]

I think the more important question is this: Assuming that Nibali is better than Wiggins, is it enough for Nibali to make up on the time loss in the Time Trials?

I think even in the best case scenario for Nibali, it would be hard to see him pulling far ahead enough. Based on last year's tour, it is even arguable that Nibali isn't necessarily a stronger climber than Wiggins.

Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour of Oman did give Nibali some hope - it looked like Nibali had better form than Wiggins. Yesterday's Volta a Catalunya stage, however, shows that Wiggins hasn't really lost it in the mountains as he has been able to match Valverde and Rodriguez, and by extension he should be able to match Nibali in the mountains. This of course doesn't bode well for Nibali's overall chance in the GC.

 

[cineteq]

I think the more important question is this: Assuming that Nibali is better than Wiggins, is it enough for Nibali to make up on the time loss in the Time Trials?

That question doesn't belong here, sorry.

 

[JRanton]

I think the more important question is this: Assuming that Nibali is better than Wiggins, is it enough for Nibali to make up on the time loss in the Time Trials?

I think even in the best case scenario for Nibali, it would be hard to see him pulling far ahead enough. Based on last year's tour, it is even arguable that Nibali isn't necessarily a stronger climber than Wiggins.

Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour of Oman did give Nibali some hope - it looked like Nibali had better form than Wiggins. Yesterday's Volta a Catalunya stage, however, shows that Wiggins hasn't really lost it in the mountains as he has been able to match Valverde and Rodriguez, and by extension he should be able to match Nibali in the mountains. This of course doesn't bode well for Nibali's overall chance in the GC.

Nibali's best chance of taking significant time is in those short intensive multi-climb stages in the third week of the Giro (from memory there are two of them). That's when Wiggins is at his weakest.* Trying to attack Wiggins and his train when there's only one significant climb at the end of a stage is a waste of time and could well result in Nibali losing ground.

*Note that I don't think Nibali is particularly great at these stages either but it's his best chance anyway.

 

[airstream]

Nibali's best chance of taking significant time is in those short intensive multi-climb stages in the third week of the Giro (from memory there are two of them). That's when Wiggins is at his weakest.* Trying to attack Wiggins and his train when there's only one significant climb at the end of a stage is a waste of time and could well result in Nibali losing ground.

*Note that I don't think Nibali is particularly great at these stages either but it's his best chance anyway.

How do you see it? Nibali going solo from far out at Trecime stage and gaining 5 minutes?

I think the only stage that contains a certain danger for Wiggins is San Pellegrino-Giau-Trecime. He can generously lose 20-30 seconds there.

 

[Parrulo]

if you look at the first week of the giro, wiggo could certainly lose some time over those hilly stages a couple with steep hills followed by technical descents to the line.

before the time trial there are 5 stages more suited to nibali then to wiggins and where, if attacked hard by punchuers, wiggins could lose time.

ofc some will just say that wiggins is also better then nibali on hilly, classic like stages because of. . . well i am sure they find a reason, but i don't think he is, so nibali could certainly have a decent buffer before the time trial. something like 30 seconds on the road+ bonus from a couple of sprints would be enough to make 50 seconds on the way to the itt and leave him less then 1:30 behind wiggins after the itt with all the mountain stages to go and the bonus seconds they offer on the line.

 

[willbick]

Nib needs stages like the TA classic style stage when he took time out of froome. I dont know how many there are like that in the giro but presumably there are one or two. However, dont forget that in that TA stage everything fell perfectly for nibali with sagan pulling for him so they could stay away. WIthout such a strong rider on the flat i think they may have been caught or at least the time gain wudda been much smaller. I think wiggo is very much a diesel engine who struggles on v steep gradients and prefers long steady big climbs to short sharp up and downs

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Why is that, Nibali finished ahead of Rodriguez on the mountain top finish in T-A

I suspect that there will be only marginal differences between them on climbs

Prato di Tivo was full gas from the get go if you recall right. Yesterday was more or less 'softpedalling' up to 6K's to go.

If these climbs are somehow a measurement for this season only the Vuelta will be in contention.

Froome's last K in Tirreno was like Quintana's yesterday, numberswise. With the note Quintana was in the slipstream of Wiggo up till 300 meters to go. Nibbles is dead meat.

 

[airstream]

if you look at the first week of the giro, wiggo could certainly lose some time over those hilly stages a couple with steep hills followed by technical descents to the line.

before the time trial there are 5 stages more suited to nibali then to wiggins and where, if attacked hard by punchuers, wiggins could lose time.

ofc some will just say that wiggins is also better then nibali on hilly, classic like stages because of. . . well i am sure they find a reason, but i don't think he is, so nibali could certainly have a decent buffer before the time trial. something like 30 seconds on the road+ bonus from a couple of sprints would be enough to make 50 seconds on the way to the itt and leave him less then 1:30 behind wiggins after the itt with all the mountain stages to go and the bonus seconds they offer on the line.

Well yeah, classic hilly stages always decided a GT winner... Especially against Sky. )
Sorry. )))

I don't understand one thing - when Nibali managed to become a great bonus seconds hunter?

 

[Jan the Man]

if you look at the first week of the giro, wiggo could certainly lose some time over those hilly stages a couple with steep hills followed by technical descents to the line.

before the time trial there are 5 stages more suited to nibali then to wiggins and where, if attacked hard by punchuers, wiggins could lose time.

ofc some will just say that wiggins is also better then nibali on hilly, classic like stages because of. . . well i am sure they find a reason, but i don't think he is, so nibali could certainly have a decent buffer before the time trial. something like 30 seconds on the road+ bonus from a couple of sprints would be enough to make 50 seconds on the way to the itt and leave him less then 1:30 behind wiggins after the itt with all the mountain stages to go and the bonus seconds they offer on the line.

Even if that scenario plays out i.e. Nibali taking time from Wiggins in the first week, 50 seconds and Wiggins taking approx 2.20 from Nibali in the TT (I think it could be more given the length of the TT).

I do not see any evidence from last year's tour which indicates Nibali would be able to outclimb Wiggins in the proper mountain stages. That coupled with the disparity in the strength of each team means it will be tough on Nibali (assuming both are on top form)

 

[JRanton]

How do you see it? Nibali going solo from far out at Trecime stage and gaining 5 minutes?

I think the only stage that contains a certain danger for Wiggins is San Pellegrino-Giau-Trecime. He can generously lose 20-30 seconds there.

No, I would expect Nibali to attack on the final climb of those stages and possibly gain time. That's assuming that the earlier climbs have been ridden hard which should in theory take more out of the heavier, less natural climber in Wiggins.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

No, I would expect Nibali to attack on the final climb of those stages and possibly gain time. That's assuming that the earlier climbs have been ridden hard which should in theory take more out of the heavier, less natural climber in Wiggins.

Nibali is somewhat stuck between a rock and a hard place. Go too early and he risks Sky just reeling him in. Go too late and he won't pick up the time he needs to make to compensate for the TT. And in this scenario I am not sure there is some kind of Goldilocks ideal middle ground.

 

[SafeBet]

Well yeah, classic hilly stages always decided a GT winner... Especially against Sky. )

They could.
Unfortunately race organizers are not willing to put this kind of stages in a GT. Which is a pity, really. We saw the potential of such a stage in Sant'Elpidio (T/A).

 

[movingtarget]

Nibali is somewhat stuck between a rock and a hard place. Go too early and he risks Sky just reeling him in. Go too late and he won't pick up the time he needs to make to compensate for the TT. And in this scenario I am not sure there is some kind of Goldilocks ideal middle ground.

That is why it will be hard for him to win the Giro. Where can he gain good time ? Maybe on a descent close to the finish ? Wiggins has to have a bad day and lose a few minutes.

 

[The Hitch]

The rainbow jersey the Olympic ITT champion couldn't be arsed with?

He has been arsed about it in the past and never won it. Funny how Wiggins doesn't want to go for the tt that tony Martin isn't injured for.

 

[The Hitch]

These are all the TTs in 2012 where Wiggins and Martins both competed in:

Volta ao Algarve Stage 5 25.8km
1. Wiggins
2. Martin at 0:00

Paris-Nice Prologue 9.4km
2. Wiggins at 0:01
28. Martin at 0:25

Paris-Nice Stage 8 9.6km
1. Wiggins
25. Martin at 1:37

Critérium du Dauphiné Prologue 5.8km
2. Wiggins at 0:01
5. Martin at 0:05

Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 4 53.5km
1. Wiggins
2. Martin at 0:34

Tour de France Prologue 6.1km
2. Wiggins at 0:07
45. Martin at 0:23

Tour de France Stage 9 38km
1. Wiggins
12. Martin at 2:16

Olympic
1. Wiggins
2. Martin at 0:42

Tony Martin was injured for the last 3 of those. Same as canc. I'm surprised you don't realize that posting tt results where martin isn't even in the top 10 run totally counter to your point.

Besides before the injury Martin had a very slow start to the season as he wanted to peak for the summer.

Oh and one of those is an mtt anyway.

 

[The Hitch]

if you look at the first week of the giro, wiggo could certainly lose some time over those hilly stages a couple with steep hills followed by technical descents to the line.

before the time trial there are 5 stages more suited to nibali then to wiggins and where, if attacked hard by punchuers, wiggins could lose time.

ofc some will just say that wiggins is also better then nibali on hilly, classic like stages because of. . . well i am sure they find a reason, but i don't think he is, so nibali could certainly have a decent buffer before the time trial. something like 30 seconds on the road+ bonus from a couple of sprints would be enough to make 50 seconds on the way to the itt and leave him less then 1:30 behind wiggins after the itt with all the mountain stages to go and the bonus seconds they offer on the line.

there's also a mtt for Wiggins to get 30 seconds and a ttt where it would not be surprising for them to get a minute.

 

[Netserk]

there's also a mtt for Wiggins to get 30 seconds and a ttt where it would not be surprising for them to get a minute.

Lol whut?

 

[Afrank]

That is why it will be hard for him to win the Giro. Where can he gain good time ? Maybe on a descent close to the finish ? Wiggins has to have a bad day and lose a few minutes.

He'll have to look to gain time wherever time can be gained. Whether it's a hilly stage, MTF, HTF, or descent, he'll have to take chances and be ready to attack the moment he sees a weak spot in sky's armor. And even if doesn't actually see one he will still have to attack where he can.

He won't be the only one looking to beat Sky though, if the other GC contenders cooperate and join him in attacking Sky then they will have a better chance of taking time on Wiggins.

 

[JRanton]

Lol whut?

Indeed. Perfectly possible that Astana will gain a few seconds over Sky.

 

[The Hitch]

Indeed. Perfectly possible that Astana will gain a few seconds over Sky.

What am i missing?

Skys ttt team will include the

olympic time trial champion
his apparent successor in waiting - Richie Porte
the bronze medalist from the world time trial championships.
The Italian time trial champion.

all under what is apparently the greatest training programme in sports history (or change 1 word in there if you're a cynic)

Will Nibali have anyone better than these 4?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

What am i missing?

Skys ttt team will include the

olympic time trial champion
his apparent successor in waiting - Richie Porte
the bronze medalist from the world time trial championships.
The Italian time trial champion.

all under what is apparently the greatest training programme in sports history (or change 1 word in there if you're a cynic)

Will Nibali have anyone better than these 4?

Porte won't ride. Change of plans.

 

[airstream]

if you look at the first week of the giro, wiggo could certainly lose some time over those hilly stages a couple with steep hills followed by technical descents to the line.

before the time trial there are 5 stages more suited to nibali then to wiggins and where, if attacked hard by punchuers, wiggins could lose time.

ofc some will just say that wiggins is also better then nibali on hilly, classic like stages because of. . . well i am sure they find a reason, but i don't think he is, so nibali could certainly have a decent buffer before the time trial. something like 30 seconds on the road+ bonus from a couple of sprints would be enough to make 50 seconds on the way to the itt and leave him less then 1:30 behind wiggins after the itt with all the mountain stages to go and the bonus seconds they offer on the line.

how much time can Nibali gain on stages like these? Realistically.

 

[JRanton]

What am i missing?

Skys ttt team will include the

olympic time trial champion
his apparent successor in waiting - Richie Porte
the bronze medalist from the world time trial championships.
The Italian time trial champion.

all under what is apparently the greatest training programme in sports history (or change 1 word in there if you're a cynic)

Will Nibali have anyone better than these 4?

The latest news on Porte is that he won't ride the Giro.

Nibali will have some good guys. Kessiakoff and Brajkovic.

If we assume its Wiggins, Cataldo, Kiryienka, Henao, Uran, Lopez, Knees, Pate and Kennaugh then I don't see Sky taking more than 10-15 seconds in a 17.4km TTT over Nibali's Astana team.

 

[greenedge]

Is Cataldo that good an ITTer though???

Lopez seems very strong and Knees, Pate and Kennaugh can all do good rides- they will be Wiggo's flat powerhouses- if that is their team.