Will Contador struggle without Bruyneel

[Hugh Januss]

How about if I define "Extreme Natural Talent" as talent that is strong enough to beat the current crop of dopers?

C'mon, its possible....Alberto....Andy....c'mon...

5% possibility, OK?
I would like to believe it too, but I have read about the performance boost available from EPO and increased hct.

 

[Polish]

5% possibility, OK?
I would like to believe it too, but I have read about the performance boost available from EPO and increased hct.

Top 5%...95th percentile...that seems about right for a definition of "Extreme Talent Alone"

I will take that.

Finger Bang Bang!

 

[Oldman]

How about if I define "Extreme Natural Talent" as talent that is strong enough to beat the current crop of dopers?

C'mon, its possible....Alberto....Andy....c'mon...

This discussion is losing sight of how and when they dope.Guys that train harder will win if all other elements are equal. Since all of these GC guys are close to 1-2% apart on ability they all train as hard as possible. That's where the testorerone, HGH, etc. come into play; so they can recover and train some more. EPO is the finish that allows application of that hard-earned power. The process takes alot of time and careful planning to not get busted. While it's possible a natural talent could hit a one day performance and catch the other "natural talents" off their game and legitimately win;that doesn't happen in a 3 week GT. I'd wager it hasn't happened since...never.

 

[Polish]

This discussion is losing sight of how and when they dope.Guys that train harder will win if all other elements are equal. Since all of these GC guys are close to 1-2% apart on ability they all train as hard as possible. That's where the testorerone, HGH, etc. come into play; so they can recover and train some more. EPO is the finish that allows application of that hard-earned power. The process takes alot of time and careful planning to not get busted. While it's possible a natural talent could hit a one day performance and catch the other "natural talents" off their game and legitimately win;that doesn't happen in a 3 week GT. I'd wager it hasn't happened since...never.

I am defining, with the help of Hugh Janus, a group of "Extremely Talented" riders that are a cut above those with enough "natural talent' to make it onto the start line at the TdF.

The Top 5%, the 95th percentile, comes out to 9 riders out of 180 staters.
Those top 5% have enough "Extreme" Natural Ability to win the TdF.
The Top 9 based on current Unibet odds are:

Contador, Schleck, Armstrong, Evans, Wiggins, Basso, Gesink, Valverde, and Menchov

I would argue that if all 9 rode clean - one of them would win the TdF.
Any of the other 171 riders with natural talent, even if doped, would not win IMO.

Of course, if any of the top 9 are doping things get complicated.
Maybe those top 9 can make a Gentleman's Agreement to ride clean?
And that brings us back to the original post - will Contador struggle to win.

 

[Oldman]

I am defining, with the help of Hugh Janus, a group of "Extremely Talented" riders that are a cut above those with enough "natural talent' to make it onto the start line at the TdF.

The Top 5%, the 95th percentile, comes out to 9 riders out of 180 staters.
Those top 5% have enough "Extreme" Natural Ability to win the TdF.
The Top 9 based on current Unibet odds are:

Contador, Schleck, Armstrong, Evans, Wiggins, Basso, Gesink, Valverde, and Menchov

I would argue that if all 9 rode clean - one of them would win the TdF.
Any of the other 171 riders with natural talent, even if doped, would not win IMO.
Of course, if any of the top 9 are doping things get complicated.
Maybe those top 9 can make a Gentleman's Agreement to ride clean?
And that brings us back to the original post - will Contador struggle to win.

You'd be surprised how many water carriers are real close in talent to their GC captains and would become very active (still doped) given the opportunity. You'd have to have the top 20 TT'ers and climbers clean to make it a possible honest, undoped win; if then.

 

[Polish]

You'd be surprised how many water carriers are real close in talent to their GC captains and would become very active (still doped) given the opportunity. You'd have to have the top 20 TT'ers and climbers clean to make it a possible honest, undoped win; if then.

I agree with you Oldman, but for the sake of arguing I will stick to my guns
IE, one the "top 9", if all clean, would a have a better shot at winning than any of these guys doped up to the eyeballs...

Rasmussen, Sanchez, Nibali, Leipheimer, Sastre, Klöden, Kreuziger, Schleckf, VandeVelde,Vinokourov, Pellizotti, Martin...They might get close to winning, even make it to Paris in Yellow, but would have to dope so heavy they would get busted and astericked.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I am defining, with the help of Hugh Janus, a group of "Extremely Talented" riders that are a cut above those with enough "natural talent' to make it onto the start line at the TdF.

The Top 5%, the 95th percentile, comes out to 9 riders out of 180 staters.
Those top 5% have enough "Extreme" Natural Ability to win the TdF.
The Top 9 based on current Unibet odds are:

Contador, Schleck, Armstrong, Evans, Wiggins, Basso, Gesink, Valverde, and Menchov

I would argue that if all 9 rode clean - one of them would win the TdF.
Any of the other 171 riders with natural talent, even if doped, would not win IMO.

Of course, if any of the top 9 are doping things get complicated.
Maybe those top 9 can make a Gentleman's Agreement to ride clean?
And that brings us back to the original post - will Contador struggle to win.

As I am sure you know since you are not stupid, just obtuse, I was not saying the top 5% were clean. I was giving you a 5% chance that there was a guy who was so talented that he could beat all the others on dope without resorting to doping himself.
Your list of top nine "clean" guys is good for a laugh but that is about it. Really? Armstrong, Basso, Valverde, Menchov? Any of them really? haha.

 

[cotterpin]

man, there must be a lot of patriotic Italians wagering to get Basso into the top nine oddswise.He hasn't shown much since his "extraterrestial" days.

 

[Psalmon]

In one post Tour interview, Bruyneel, after criticizing Contador for his going against the team's strategy during the tour, said that inspite of all of that he wouldn't rule out working with Contador in the future. I unfortunately can't remember where I read the interview.

I agree I wouldn't be surprised to see things turn back around between AC and JB, but I think Lance would probably have to be out of the picture. What a head-spinning turn around in attitude it was after Lance re-arrived.

My understanding is that Simoni's relationship with the owners and now that the not so little Prince no longer contends for GT overalls, may make Lampre ok for him. I hope Gibo comes back to Lampre with the freedom to make breaks and seek stage wins. He has too much class for the Rock.

 

[poupou]

I would argue that if all 9 rode clean - one of them would win the TdF.
Any of the other 171 riders with natural talent, even if doped, would not win IMO.

EPO and blood doping history says you are wrong.

Apply it to track USA team of JO, they never were conteders but they won with just a few blood transfusion. Imagine what they could have done on a long doping program allowing "hard"-work and training harder that natural human limit

Just have a look to the second Moser's hour record, a old man coming back after a few years to beat the world record.

ANd what would have done a clean Riis in 1996 !

Every science study on blood doping say you are WRONG ! That is not difficult to search for such publications.
Even the riders like Andreu, Skibby, Menthéour, Zulle, ... recognize that EPO is a HUGE advantage.

 

[gatete]

EPO and blood doping history says you are wrong.

Apply it to track USA team of JO, they never were conteders but they won with just a few blood transfusion. Imagine what they could have done on a long doping program allowing "hard"-work and training harder that natural human limit

Just have a look to the second Moser's hour record, a old man coming back after a few years to beat the world record.

ANd what would have done a clean Riis in 1996 !

Every science study on blood doping say you are WRONG ! That is not difficult to search for such publications.
Even the riders like Andreu, Skibby, Menthéour, Zulle, ... recognize that EPO is a HUGE advantage.

Different kind of riders those from 96 than these present, I think in all fairness these guys are more equal in talent (my oppinion)

 

[Oldman]

Different kind of riders those from 96 than these present, I think in all fairness these guys are more equal in talent (my oppinion)

Poupou's point is that a rider lacking power can train it with PEDs and become a better TT'er when he's a light climber. Likewise a good all'rounder can shed a little weight and become a climber with the a blend of the same sauce. The riders in your top nine have a wide spectrum of talents that need to be blended into a complete, 3-week recovery machine.
Take that away from them and you'll find the next guys on each team's list, using PED's; will kill the top nine. Period. Having a 10% advantage on hematocrit is immense.

 

[Mellow Velo]

man, there must be a lot of patriotic Italians wagering to get Basso into the top nine oddswise.He hasn't shown much since his "extraterrestial" days.

No, two, top five GT classement, since his return, obviously wouldn't qualify him for a top nine spot.
I guess that makes Armstrong lucky to make the list, too.