Will Gilbert complete the "ardennes triple" by winning liege?

[auscyclefan94]

Will Gilbert complete the "ardennes triple" by winning liege?

Discuss...

 

[Havetts]

Yes.

No discussion needed ^^

 

[Parrulo]

i would also go with yes. but last year gilbert also was the strongest guy (arguably) and didn't won. doesn't matter how strong he is if he doesn't follow the right move he won't win

 

[will10]

Do we really need a Liege thread alongside the Liege thread?

 

[Cobblestoned]

Yes. No discussion needed after todays performance. Close thread. Comes little bit late.

Ah, I see you voted "no", to stand out somehow.

 

[Parrulo]

Do we really need a Liege thread alongside the Liege thread?

this is a poll

but ya this will also get discussed a lot in the liege thread anyway

still good to have a poll tho ^_^

 

[El Pistolero]

I voted no

It's going to be hard. Just look at Cancellara this year.

 

[roundabout]

Yes. When even people like Vanendert can finish top-6 in Fleche he won't be outmanouvered.

 

[Parrulo]

I voted no

It's going to be hard. Just look at Cancellara this year.

too be honest i don't think people will pull a cancellara on gilbert. because the ardennes are full of tommeke/canc type of guys who want to win themselves and i bet the shlecks and the spanish armada guys prefer to lose to gilbert while trying to win themselves then letting the win go to a non favourite

 

[spalco]

No. Vino****ingcourov defends his LBL win.

 

[The Hitch]

I hope Leopard send Jens into the break at about 90k. Then look at Gilbert and say, bring this back yourself mate. I will be very upset if any of the other teams help Gilbert out. Just like Spartacus was forced to on cobbles, Gilbert, having owned everyone in some style, should be made to (though he does actually have a team to help him) get the victory himself.

 

[Moondance]

I think he'll do it.

Last year he was beaten by good teamwork by Vino and Contador, and Gilbert and not having strong teammates wen it mattered.

On the other hand, both Gilbert, and his domestiques, look in outstanding form, and are ready and capable to do damage.

Also, who's going to beat him? The Schlecks are good but not great, and the Spanish mountain goats (Sanchez, Anton, Rodriguez) have learned that they can no longer drop Gilbert at will when the gradient rises over 10%.

 

[El Pistolero]

I hope Leopard send Jens into the break at about 90k. Then look at Gilbert and say, bring this back yourself mate. I will be very upset if any of the other teams help Gilbert out. Just like Spartacus was forced to on cobbles, Gilbert, having owned everyone in some style, should be made to (though he does actually have a team to help him) get the victory himself.

Why else would they have Voigt in their team?

Voigt would be a cool winner, but he'll need someone like Vino with him to stay away at the end. And no one will let Vino go that soon. Who can you think of that would make a good pair with Voigt for the breakaway?

 

[Moondance]

I hope Leopard send Jens into the break at about 90k. Then look at Gilbert and say, bring this back yourself mate. I will be very upset if any of the other teams help Gilbert out. Just like Spartacus was forced to on cobbles, Gilbert, having owned everyone in some style, should be made to (though he does actually have a team to help him) get the victory himself.

Wasn't that Saxo's exact tactic last year?

 

[Cobblestoned]

No. Vino****ingcourov defends his LBL win.

Thats what I thought too, till around 16:30 today.
There is no way to win more impressive on the Mur and at Amstel.

I think even Vino felt a little pain today.

 

[Parrulo]

ya but gilbert will still have team mates with 90k to go. helll VDB2 will prolly still be there with 15k to go

 

[Ferminal]

No.

He will have to beat Vino, the Schlecks, Samu, Katusha.

Of course I will not be surprised if he wins, but the odds are stacked against him.

Even if they don't treat him with the same contempt as "they" did Cancellara, it will still be tough.

 

[Lanark]

Yep, he'll succeed Trebellin. I don't expect any Cancellara-scenario's (and I think the difference in power between Gilbert and the competition is bigger than it was between Cancellara and his competitors this year). The final of a race like LBL is quite short, nothing happens before the Roche-aux-Foucons, and it's only 20km from there, after that, there is not as much room for tactical games like in Paris-Roubaix, it's more a matter of strength, and they can't beat Gilbert there.

If they want to have a chance, they should make it a long and hard race, but that requires sacrificing your team, they'll be too scared to do that.

 

[El Pistolero]

No.

He will have to beat Vino, the Schlecks, Samu, Katusha.

Of course I will not be surprised if he wins, but the odds are stacked against him.

Even if they don't treat him with the same contempt as "they" did Cancellara, it will still be tough.

To be fair, he did do that twice already.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yep, he'll succeed Trebellin. I don't expect any Cancellara-scenario's (and I think the difference in power between Gilbert and the competition is bigger than it was between Cancellara and his competitors this year). The final of a race like LBL is quite short, nothing happens before the Roche-aux-Foucons, and it's only 20km from there, after that, there is not as much room for tactical games like in Paris-Roubaix, it's more a matter of strength, and they can't beat Gilbert there.

If they want to have a chance, they should make it a long and hard race, but that requires sacrificing your team, they'll be too scared to do that.

That favors Gilbert

 

[boomcie]

I voted no

It's going to be hard. Just look at Cancellara this year.

You know what we say in Belgium El Pistolet: "fear is a bad adviser".

 

[Ferminal]

To be fair, he did do that twice already.

Well, they are rather different races.

The favourites were not attacking from 40km out in AGR/Fleche.

In L-B-L you can guarantee that there will be attacks by the favourites at least by the Redoute, which is 35-40km to go. Gilbert will have to follow, chase himself and make some tough calls in the process. Even if he is the strongest it's not an easy win.

At least that is how they should ride it, if they let Gilbert get an easy ride to the St Nick then they deserve to lose.

I think I'm just repeating what I said the other day, I'm going down if he wins

 

[luckyboy]

Nah, everyone will be marking him and forcing Lotto to work..

Probably should've voted 'not sure' seeing how strong Vanendert + VDB are.

 

[Jan the Man]

I don't think he will win but hope that he does.

He has been incredibly impressive thus far all season. I think that to win three Ardennes in the week is very very hard and you need everything to fall into place.

I think he will be assisted by the fact VDB 2 and Vanderent are looking in very good shape and if they are able to stay in the peleton until the Roche aux Facons then he will likely be the winner.

If however Katusha and Schlecks isolate him before that point then he it may prove too difficult to contain those favourites. If however he is in a lead group come Ans then its game over for the others.

 

[El Pistolero]

Well, they are rather different races.

The favourites were not attacking from 40km out in AGR/Fleche.

In L-B-L you can guarantee that there will be attacks by the favourites at least by the Redoute, which is 35-40km to go. Gilbert will have to follow, chase himself and make some tough calls in the process. Even if he is the strongest it's not an easy win.

At least that is how they should ride it, if they let Gilbert get an easy ride to the St Nick then they deserve to lose.

I think I'm just repeating what I said the other day, I'm going down if he wins

Nah, I'm not expecting him to win either

But with Valverde and Tintin gone no one will be able to outsprint him in Ans. That's definitely in his favor. He can afford to ride defensively in LBL now. Last year and the year before he couldn't afford that.