Wigwan said:
Well, Hesjedal was 4 minutes faster than Purito in the last TT at le Tour 2010.. If Ryder can survive the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, Purito don't stand a chance.
For the sake of furthering the discussion
- Hesjedal (51th) was 3:37 faster than Rodriguez (153rd) over 52km.
- The ITT in this year's Giro is 30km, which would work out to 2:05 to Hesjedals advantage
But is this ITT representative for Rodriguez?
Rodriguez placings (from CQranking) from ITTs per year, only 10+km and no mountain TTs:
2010: 7-41-153*-109*
2011: 13-121-33-39*-59-71*
2012: 6
* TT in a GT.
His worst placing was from the Tour 2010 (where he was 153rd), it is not, to me, obvious that his performance there is indicative of how he will do in this year's Giro.
And a specific comparison:
San Benedetto dello Tronto in Tirreno-Adriatico 2011 and 2012 (same course, 9.3km)
Winner 2011/2012: Cancellara 10:33 / Cancellara 10:36
Rodriguez 2011/2012: 121th, +1:41 / 59th, +0:52
My opinion: Rodriguez ITT looks a bit better this year than in the past. At maximum Hesjedal will take 2 minutes (if J-Rod bad, Hesjedal good form) but more likely it will be around a minute.
Also Rodriguez (best ever?) TTT makes me suspect that Katusha has been working in the wind tunnel for this season, which could be to J-Rods advantage.
(I may post again on this subject if the GC develops in that direction)