Will vino go for the win in the giro ?

[python]

And there are also those 10% percent "walls" and inevitable "crisis day" that Vino tends to have on virtually each Grand Tour (including the Vuelta he won) he's in.

Aaand the team roster that was announced today doesn't look very inspiring i'm afraid to say.

Of course there are Gasparotto and Grivko and Tiralongo and maybe Jufre, but apart from these guys... I don't know. I just don't know.

And Max Iglinsky (who could easily be a second captain for GT) is missing out and is left for the Tour...

IF he'd win, against all these odds... That would be an amazing feat.

Stage win or two feels like a safe bet, that i am sure of.

two comments on those things i hilited above that make vino's intentions a bit clearer:

(i) cant recall where but someplace i analyzed vino's climbing at trentino. he stayed virtually even with ricco to the mtf of stage 4. after the initial attack, vino and ricco climbed at the same rate up a10% wall. and being a power rider, vino kept up with ricco and pozzo (probably top 5-7 climbers in the sport) with ease on a 6% grade. that's awesome and is an indication of vino's serious preparation for the mountains of the giro.
(ii) as i understand it, grivko is the late addition. he is probably the best motor on astana after berto and vino. guys like him are invaluable to control the peloton on flat and rolling stages. perhaps vino is very serious about getting as well as he can - even winning if the opportunity is there.

 

[icefire]

Is that possible on Tenerife? My knowledge of the place is sketchy at best but I have the impression everything except the park is quite low. Just asking.

There's only a narrow strip of low land in the South. The rest of the island is basically the skirt of Mt Teide (3718m, 12198 ft). The park has a kind of plateau surrounding Mt Teide on its west,south and east sides all above 2000m (~6500ft). There are 5 different access roads that merge into the main one that crosses the park with a top height above 2300m (~7500ft). Google maps with the 'terrain' view activated shows the level curves very well.

Go to http://climbbybike.com/ and enter 'Teide' in the search box if you're curious about the climbs. The island has also lots of shorter climbs with steeper gradients.

 

[Galic Ho]

Much as I would like it if Vino could compete with the elite on the climbs at this year's Giro I can't help but think back to his form prior to his suspension and how even then he had major difficulty staying with the gc contenders in the mountains. Plus his team would be better served with him at most chasing stage wins at the Giro and saving something for supporting Contador in the mountains of the Tour. I have a feeling he'll need Vino's experience and aggressiveness to counter Saxo Bank, Liquigas and Shack.

Liquigas and the Shack have been absent in every race Contador has been in and dominated this season. The Tour will change nothing. Basso? Hmmppphhh! Yeah, the Astana boys are going to lose sleep over crazy Ivan and his LordShip the mighty LA.

When I see Liquigas live up to this hype and work as a team, then and only then will I believe they have a chance. They have done nothing last year or this year to convince me they can get a rider onto the podium at the Tour. Contador can outride every rider both the Shack and Liquigas field on his own in both the hills and ITT. Worse, is that he has magnificent form and so does Vino. Do Liquigas and the Shack (Horner does not count)? Aggressiveness? Yeah, as I said dude, I'll believe it when I see it. Liquigas should have shown some last year. They didn't. We all know the Bruyneel/Shack play book. It won't work against the Schlecks and Contador. So that leaves Saxo, who we know can and do make a showing in the Tour. 1/3 is not bad, at least that means there will be a race.

As for the Giro. I still think Sastre will win. But I can see Vino being a major pain in the patella and making the podium. So who to demote? Pellizotti or Evans? Pellizotti for me.

1. Sastre
2. Evans
3. Vino
4. Pellizotti.

Cadel is the floater. If he thinks he won't win he can slow down and fall back and aim for the Tour. Cadel's form seems to be too good to be true, but the same can be said about Vino. Does Evans form from last week remind anyone of the Dauphine last year? Firing/peaking too early? In that case maybe Franco is a better option than Vino or Evans. I have been saying for a while that I think Cadel is aiming for the Tour but have been hoping I am wrong. Weirdly my above reasoning is based on me being wrong and Evans aiming for the Giro. I'll change that now and say that his form suggests the Giro is his aim and I'll stick with him for second. I also think the hilly ITT will be won by Pellizotti. Anyway, the Giro will be interesting.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

When I see Liquigas live up to this hype and work as a team, then and only then will I believe they have a chance.

I don't know, i watch Tour of Romandie and they're showing great team work there and they do support their leader(-s) Sagan (Kreuziger) very well.
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[Fred Thistle]

if he can
of course

 

[python]

one unnamed pt team rider believes vino will win.

 

[Oldman]

sorry for quoting myself but since i started this thread a lot has happened. vino unexpectedly won at trentino and liege and showed such a form that many including me did not expect.

did those latest victories change his odds of winning the giro ?

for bookmakers, yes, but not fore me. i think he can podium if he keeps the climbing legs fresh but as some noted on another thread, he may have peaked too early.
and i remain convinced vino digging too deep at the giro can screw his recovery for the tour. he knows that.

That he's likely peaked is the most excellent point. What could really be interesting is if he choses to back off in the Giro. Would that mean he's more interested in the Tour? He's only got so many starts left as a GT podium contender.

 

[Andrichuk]

That he's likely peaked is the most excellent point. What could really be interesting is if he choses to back off in the Giro. Would that mean he's more interested in the Tour? He's only got so many starts left as a GT podium contender.

I think he wants to win the Tour but I don't think he can beat an on form AC. He also truly does care about the team too.

 

[Oldman]

I think he wants to win the Tour but I don't think he can beat an on form AC. He also truly does care about the team too.

It is his team. There are others on the list behind AC he can't beat but I can't say what the man's mindset could be, given the current situation. He's got to know his profile is high and the UCI is looking for scalps.

 

[python]

I think he wants to win the Tour but I don't think he can beat an on form AC. He also truly does care about the team too

exactly and he knows it.

the embrace he received from berto after his win at liege tells me there is 100% understanding between them who is who at the tour.

when i started this thread i genuinely believed that vino's goals at the giro are limited. i'm not so sure now. i think he is aiming as high on the gc as possible reappraising his plans each morning as he shakes those old legs.

we'll have to see. but having seen him climbing the 10% walls along with ricco i have to say perhaps vino may have counted on getting another notch later.
his tt advantage over sastre and basso is a given. his climbing parity against those two is a fair bet.

so it could be evans vs vino at the end.

 

[richwagmn]

I've always liked Vino. I love his attacking style. Maybe those attacks aren't always well thought out but it makes for good racing. I see a little of Vino in AC too. Sometimes AC attacks because... well... he can.

In contrast, LA's style always put me to sleep. His tour wins were so boring. Every attack was calculated.

Yea, Vino's going for the win. I look forward to Vino vs Evans in the mountains.