William Junior Lecerf

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He was involved in a couple of crashes the days before.

 

[Squire]

Assuming Lecerf doesn't go down (which might well happen), I think he will definitely overtake Armirail and possibly Ciccone and Bernal if their downward trend continues. Træen is not that likely to completely crack I think. He's a bit of a diesel. I only see Kuss as a possible threat from behind, but you never know with him.

Then there's always likely to be some random DNF from some guys who are going better. Gall seems to have some kind of problem now according to PCS.

So let's say he gets Armirail and one of Ciccone/Bernal, but not Træen. And then there's one random DNF. And Kuss/Tejada stay behind. That's a 10th overall. But yeah, I agree it will be difficult, because I'm not convinced of his three week durability.

So my calls were not too bad so far, but a bit all over the place.

Armirail cracked but then re-overtook Lecerf from the break. Both Ciccone and Bernal are out of it, so that was a solid call. Diesel Træen is still going strong. Kuss was definitely a threat, and now I think he will stay high on GC. Tejada was way more impressive than I thought. No random DNF so far for anyone else, luckily.

I guess we can write off a top 10 now. As @Red Rick says, he probably won't have the freshness to make up 10 minutes from breakaways. As a pro, Lecerf has always looked a bit more like a guy suited for shorter efforts anyway.

 

[Squire]

As @Red Rick says, he probably won't have the freshness to make up 10 minutes from breakaways.

Well, that aged well ...

 

[Samamba]

Might top 10 this Vuelta. Ok because of this break and because there's barely any riders left riding for GC, but it would still a good achievement at his age.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Might top 10 this Vuelta. Ok because of this break and because there's barely any riders left riding for GC, but it would still a good achievement at his age.

I still kind of doubt it. From the guys in front of him, the only one that i see dropping back, is Kuss (in case he has to pull for Vingegaard). On the other hand, Jorgenson, Tejada and Traeen are close behind. And i am uncertain his effort yesterday (losing 10 minutes) is anything but the writing on the wall. There are still three stages where he could lose minutes.

 

[Andre]

...but for now at least 9th and almost 8th. Great Vuelta thus far. We'll see if he hangs on in the third week

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

How is his ITT?

 

[Berniece]

How is his ITT?

Bad for someone going for GC's. He was 54th in Romandie when he was fighting for GC and his first top 10 position in a WT race.

 

[Red Rick]

Where he is in GC the TT doesn't matter one iota.

Matters much more to get into another big breakaway. And tomorrow is likely the only chance if at all.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I still kind of doubt it. From the guys in front of him, the only one that i see dropping back, is Kuss (in case he has to pull for Vingegaard). On the other hand, Jorgenson, Tejada and Traeen are close behind. And i am uncertain his effort yesterday (losing 10 minutes) is anything but the writing on the wall. There are still three stages where he could lose minutes.

One day later and he already lost a spot, and now has Jorgenson and Bernal breathing down his neck, with Tejada also too close to manage. There is just no way he finishes top 10 unless they let him in another break. He was lucky the stage was cut short.