World Championship 2025: Men’s ITT, September 21

[solo80k]

The God King gets what the God King wants.

No flat sections, high altitude... I see no challengers against Pogacar here.

 

[SafeBet]

Really curious about Vine's performance, assuming he can stay on his bike for the whole TT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The God King gets what the God King wants.

No flat sections, high altitude... I see no challengers against Pogacar here.

Any non-technical section with a very shallow gradient (positive or negative) should be good for Evenepoel, given his aerodynamics.

 

[Berniece]

Any non-technical section with a very shallow gradient (positive or negative) should be good for Evenepoel, given his aerodynamics.

Due to the higher altitude it won't help him as much though. But there are around 18km's of shallow gradients in this ITT

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Due to the higher altitude it won't help him as much though. But there are around 18km's of shallow gradients in this ITT

It's also true that those sections should be time-weighted not distance-weighted i.e. 18 km sections favouring Evenepoel and 8 km sections favouring Pogacar could have similar total duration.

 

[Berniece]

It's also true that those sections should be time-weighted not distance-weighted i.e. 18 km sections favouring Evenepoel and 8 km sections favouring Pogacar could have similar total duration.

Yeah indeed, it's going to be close. I hope, that would give us the most fun race

 

[Red Rick]

None of the climbing should be particularly slow. And Pogacar doing the MTT on a roadbike is a bit of a red flag for me in regards to his affinity for his TT bike.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

There's an interesting aspect: how to optimize your performance on such a varying route? It's not just a constant execution of FTP (which would take place on totally flat route or on a long climb like Finestre/Ventoux).

On a mix of climbing/flat it probably makes more sense to generate more power during climbing where you can gain relatively more (because speed vs power relation is closer to linear there while it's something between square and cube root on deal flat road). Another factor favouring this tactics are downhills which enable for a short recovery. I would like to see some real examples of such comparisons (i.e. constant FTP vs above-below FTP mix) but not sure if any publications/experiments have ever been done.

 

[Berniece]

There's an interesting aspect: how to optimize your performance on such a varying route? It's not just a constant execution of FTP (which would take place on totally flat route or on a long climb like Finestre/Ventoux).

On a mix of climbing/flat it probably makes more sense to generate more power during climbing where you can gain relatively more (because speed vs power relation is closer to linear there while it's something between square and cube root on deal flat road). Another factor favouring this tactics are downhills which enable for a short recovery. I would like to see some real examples of such comparisons (i.e. constant FTP vs above-below FTP mix) but not sure if any publications/experiments have ever been done.

And how much are they influenced by other riders performances? Will they stick to their pacing plan, or explode.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And how much are they influenced by other riders performances? Will they stick to their pacing plan, or explode.

It's interesting. Another aspect is that on TT bikes their comfortable power is lower in aero positions so they have to generate less power on flat anyway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I back this. It's definitely an interesting aspect, pacing plan on such a varying route isn't easy and can differ significantly from rider to rider. I don't think they'll be affected much by others.

Im just assuming here, but given the nature of modern cycling, I believe every rider will have a pacing plan prepared in advance using AI to perfectly optimize their individual performance data aligned with every course detail to maximize efficiency. I know Pogacar and Sola at least use ''Anna'' for this entirely, which is highly praised for this purpose, and I assume most riders will have something similar and use it more or less slavic.

Think it was a bigger issue before all the data was aviable to this degree and not the least the use of the data to this extent, but im just assuming here.

To make such a tool perform the desired optimization a lot of input data is necessary. And I don't mean just simple power curves vs duration. The tool has to know how fast they recover from various efforts and what kind of effort they can produce for X minutes after another effort produced for Y minutes. I'm pretty sure the last aspect is just parametrized/estimated/interpolated somehow (they don't have so much detailed data) and the simulation high accuracy isn't guaranteed IMO.

 

[Berniece]

To make such a tool perform the desired optimization a lot of input data is necessary. And I don't mean just simple power curves vs duration. The tool has to know how fast they recover from various efforts and what kind of effort they can produce for X minutes after another effort produced for Y minutes. I'm pretty sure the last aspect is just parametrized/estimated/interpolated somehow (they don't have so much detailed data) and the simulation high accuracy isn't guaranteed IMO.

I would already be surprised if SOQ/Evenepoel/Belgium uses such tools if the right one exists

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I would already be surprised if SOQ/Evenepoel/Belgium uses such tools if the right one exists

I've worked on optimization algorithms for many years and would find it really interesting to know how to optimize such stuff on living organisms like Pogacar, especially what kind of effort/recovery data they input to make it work.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I would already be surprised if SOQ/Evenepoel/Belgium uses such tools if the right one exists

Indurain recently said that most important was to eat a sandwich before a climb. I suppose this is still Remco's basic pacing plan.

 

[AlpRaid]

Not sure why the worlds ITT is not representative of what ITTs are throughout the season.

Shouldn't it be limited to like 12 kms?

🙄

 

[kingjr]

Indurain recently said that most important was to eat a sandwich before a climb. I suppose this is still Remco's basic pacing plan.

If Indurain ate a sandwich, I think half a sandwich will do for Remco.

 

[Red Rick]

I've worked on optimization algorithms for many years and would find it really interesting to know how to optimize such stuff on living organisms like Pogacar, especially what kind of effort/recovery data they input to make it work.

It's Pogacar, so we're at the level of "just pedal harder" kinds of optimization while your manager talks about how aero your road bike is ignoring that your rivals are on literal TT bikes.

 

[Netserk]

I look forward to the Armirail vs. Van Wilder showdown. Tour-Vuelta is not the best prep, but should still be close.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Indurain ate a sandwich, I think half a sandwich will do for Remco.

Dont let poor Remco die from starvation. 4 sandwiches during the TT will do.

It's Pogacar, so we're at the level of "just pedal harder" kinds of optimization while your manager talks about how aero your road bike is ignoring that your rivals are on literal TT bikes.

So after a double portion of his beloved porridge "full gas, Teddy" is an optimal pacing plan?

 

[Sciatic]

Really curious about Vine's performance, assuming he can stay on his bike for the whole TT.

He seems to be able maintain his top form through the Vuelta to the end (based on still placing well on Stage 20 after pulling for Almeida) and it seems good timing that this comes so soon afterward.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Im just assuming here, but given the nature of modern cycling, I believe every rider will have a pacing plan prepared in advance using AI to perfectly optimize their individual performance data aligned with every course detail to maximize efficiency. I know Pogacar and Sola at least use ''Anna'' for this entirely, which is highly praised for this purpose, and I assume most riders will have something similar and use it more or less slavic.

Evenepoel has no need for that, he has people in his corner with Artificial Stupidity to tell him what to do.

 

[HashRouge]

None of the climbing should be particularly slow. And Pogacar doing the MTT on a roadbike is a bit of a red flag for me in regards to his affinity for his TT bike.

I know what you mean, but I honestly think that was just a reflection of how steep that TT was. I should know, I walked up the course that morning and it was an absolute pig! Even the supposed flat part seemed to climb up quite a lot!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Even the supposed flat part seemed to climb up quite a lot!

Maybe not enough mountain hiking? Moderate walk up a few % slope shouldn't be felt too much (unless you try running).

 

[Didinho]

If this was in the 3rd week of a GC we know Pogi would smash this with a minute and more. It’s his best chance to win the WC ITT. In a one day race it can be close I guess, but I would still put my money on Pogi.

 

[AmRacer]

There's no alien with a space helmet chasing Remco there.