World Championship 2025: Men’s ITT, September 21

[Red Rick]

I think changes in air resistance is of negligible importance between riders. How well the riders are currently adapted to altitude and less oxygen should matter far more.

It's gonna make downhills and flats faster and the uphills slower.

 

[Berniece]

It's gonna make downhills and flats faster and the uphills slower.

Why the uphills slower?

 

[Netserk]

Why the uphills slower?

Less oxygen.

 

[Red Rick]

Less oxygen.

The tipping point isn't gonna be 0% gradient though, I'd guess it's somewhere between 2 and 3%.

 

[Red Rick]

Okay guys, I dug deep into the science.

This WC being practically at the equator, it means that gravity is weaker due to the larger centrifugal force and the bulge of the Earth meaning you're further away from the Earth's core, g is only 9.77 instead of 9.81, and therefor Evenepoel should easily win and if he doesn't he has absolutely no excuses.

 

[Berniece]

Less oxygen.

I understand part, I just didn't understand why Red Rick said faster on flat sections but slower uphill. His follow up post explained it.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I think changes in air resistance is of negligible importance between riders. How well the riders are currently adapted to altitude and less oxygen should matter far more.

Above ~1,500 m above sea level as is the situation for upcoming worlds, you can only just start to have measurable effects compared to a similar event at sea level, especially if you are not acclimatized.

It seems like 1995 Duitima has been completely forgotten here?

The route between Tunja and Duitima took place between (afair) 2550-2850 m above sea level.
Consequently MUCH harder for the body, especially in longer efforts: VO2max drops, you get higher heart rate (for a given power), you increase pulse and lactic acid faster, and recovery often takes longer and therefore performance-limiting for even well-trained elite level.

Regarding the aerodynamics and an extremely streamlined low-slung style like Remco vs. a much more upright position.
In a strong headwind, Remco has a colossal advantage.
In thin air and calm, the possibility of total air intake, VO2 max and overall total oxygen intake has a colossal advantage in the latter terrain.

The 2025 Rwanda ITT is not the 1995 Duitima ITT.
And if there turn out to be strong headwinds, Remco will still have a much greater advantage in Rwanda than if he were in his prime in a 1995 Duitima ITT.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Okay guys, I dug deep into the science.

This WC being practically at the equator, it means that gravity is weaker due to the larger centrifugal force and the bulge of the Earth meaning you're further away from the Earth's core, g is only 9.77 instead of 9.81, and therefor Evenepoel should easily win and if he doesn't he has absolutely no excuses.

So, those who can't copy Remco's low TT position will not be able to clinge to Earth and are deemed to be lost in space?
Sounds like a thriller!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Okay guys, I dug deep into the science.

This WC being practically at the equator, it means that gravity is weaker due to the larger centrifugal force and the bulge of the Earth meaning you're further away from the Earth's core, g is only 9.77 instead of 9.81, and therefor Evenepoel should easily win and if he doesn't he has absolutely no excuses.

10/10

Even Fatco should crush Pogenheimer on those hills!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I understand part, I just didn't understand why Red Rick said faster on flat sections but slower uphill. His follow up post explained it.

Less oxygen mean less power. When climbing it's very important (gravity is the main opponent so speed decreases almost proportionally to power on steep sections). However, on flat speed decreases more slowly vs power (between square and cube root) and it's compensated by thinner air (less resistive force so speed can actually rise a bit despite lower power).

 

[Berniece]

And if there turn out to be strong headwinds, Remco will still have a much greater advantage in Rwanda than if he were in his prime in a 1995 Duitima ITT.

Wind is expected to be between 22-28km/h

 

[KenFiamingo]

Okay guys, I dug deep into the science.

This WC being practically at the equator, it means that gravity is weaker due to the larger centrifugal force and the bulge of the Earth meaning you're further away from the Earth's core, g is only 9.77 instead of 9.81, and therefor Evenepoel should easily win and if he doesn't he has absolutely no excuses.

Larger centrifugal force?! That doesn't bode well for Remco's cornering!

 

[KenFiamingo]

So, those who can't copy Remco's low TT position will not be able to clinge to Earth and are deemed to be lost in space?
Sounds like a thriller!

Stefan Kung better wear a space suit.

 

[AmRacer]

So, those who can't copy Remco's low TT position will not be able to clinge to Earth and are deemed to be lost in space?
Sounds like a thriller!

Remco won't be chased by an alien in a space helmet.

 

[HashRouge]

Does anyone really expect Pog to beat Remco here? This is not the Tour de France.

Honestly, I don't even know anymore. One comment someone says it's really hilly, the next someone says it's not that hilly at all. So now I have no idea.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Wind is expected to be between 22-28km/h

This is actually a very strong wind for equatorial area. Usually it's much weaker and I don't see such strong wind in forecasts. Elevated area of the WC can increase wind speed and of course thunderstorms as well (if they occur).

 

[Berniece]

This is actually a very strong wind for equatorial area. Usually it's much weaker and I don't see such strong wind in forecasts. Elevated area of the WC can increase wind speed and of course thunderstorms as well (if they occur).

I checked windy, because the Rwanda meteo forecast is a bit ***. They supposedly have 5-days forecasts but it was empty

 

[AlpRaid]

Wonder if anyone is going to use a Rog Tokyo Olympics strategy of going full gas on every climb, but freewheeling resting on every descent. I remember him passing riders on every climb, but then being caught periodically on the downhill by the rider he had just passed.

 

[Heston]

Bookmakers have Pogacar as favorite. Maybe time to put money on Remco at favorable odds.

 

[nightowl]

Honestly, I don't even know anymore. One comment someone says it's really hilly, the next someone says it's not that hilly at all. So now I have no idea.

It’s the same amount of climbing as Tokyo but 3.6km shorter. 2021 Vuelta stage 21 was 6.8km shorter but with the same climbing/km.

I don’t know if I’d call either of those super hilly, but they definitely qualify as hilly TTs more than flat.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Wonder if anyone is going to use a Rog Tokyo Olympics strategy of going full gas on every climb, but freewheeling resting on every descent. I remember him passing riders on every climb, but then being caught periodically on the downhill by the rider he had just passed.

Maybe. It probably makes sense to go at 105-110% of one's threshold on climbs and 90-95% elsewhere cause one can gain relatively more on climbs (due to laws of physics) plus descents can provide a short recovery.

 

[Red Rick]

Wonder if anyone is going to use a Rog Tokyo Olympics strategy of going full gas on every climb, but freewheeling resting on every descent. I remember him passing riders on every climb, but then being caught periodically on the downhill by the rider he had just passed.

That's not how Roglic races those TTs at all. He actually keeps some back on the uphill and then has the most left to give on the downhills.

 

[tobydawq]

Okay guys, I dug deep into the science.

This WC being practically at the equator, it means that gravity is weaker due to the larger centrifugal force and the bulge of the Earth meaning you're further away from the Earth's core, g is only 9.77 instead of 9.81, and therefor Evenepoel should easily win and if he doesn't he has absolutely no excuses.

Science should give you a slap in the face for using the term centrifugal force.

I wonder if the different magnetism some rider described was the reason that Remco went very fast on a climb in Tour of Norway a few years ago will also be prevalent here.

 

[Red Rick]

Science should give you a slap in the face for using the term centrifugal force.

I wonder if the different magnetism some rider described was the reason that Remco went very fast on a climb in Tour of Norway a few years ago will also be prevalent here.

Now you have me digging through old /r/askscience threads about Newtons correspondence, thanks. And no it's still widely accepted.

Otherwise we might as well go with the classical understanding of gravity being wrong. Which is why I'm never a serious person, I as I usually fail to understand the gravity of the situation

 

[AlpRaid]

That's not how Roglic races those TTs at all. He actually keeps some back on the uphill and then has the most left to give on the downhills.

Not what he did in Tokyo. Just saying. It was commented on at the time, not just here, but by the "experts".