World Championship 2025: Men’s ITT, September 21

[HashRouge]

Maybe not enough mountain hiking? Moderate walk up a few % slope shouldn't be felt too much (unless you try running).

I dunno, I did take a footpath so it was steeper than following the road, and I'd walked up Hautacam the day before too. You should have seen me the following day scrabbling up some godforsaken goat track in the drizzle to watch stage 14.

 

[Brullnux]

None of the climbing should be particularly slow. And Pogacar doing the MTT on a roadbike is a bit of a red flag for me in regards to his affinity for his TT bike.

Good point. Hopefully he loses this TT so the UAE mafia can do something useful for once lobby for the end of TT bikes.

 

[Brullnux]

If this was in the 3rd week of a GC we know Pogi would smash this with a minute and more. It’s his best chance to win the WC ITT. In a one day race it can be close I guess, but I would still put my money on Pogi.

I also think Pogacar is favourite, but not sure where the bullishness comes from. He's never beaten Evenepoel in a non-MTT, and has only ever won one 'normal' TT (two if you count the one up to Perugia).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I dunno, I did take a footpath so it was steeper than following the road

Well, this changes things obviously.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I also think Pogacar is favourite, but not sure where the bullishness comes from. He's never beaten Evenepoel in a non-MTT, and has only ever won one 'normal' TT (two if you count the one up to Perugia).

By this way of thinking it's not a "normal" TT (680 vertical meters).

 

[Red Rick]

The more I think about it, the more I just think Pogacar cleans this easily. His WC ITTs in 2021 and 2022 weren't that bad, especially considering he probably was mainly peaking for Lombardia in those seasons.

And Evenepoel has never really crushed a TT this hilly.

 

[Peyroteo94]

None of the climbing should be particularly slow. And Pogacar doing the MTT on a roadbike is a bit of a red flag for me in regards to his affinity for his TT bike.

Tour de France 2024 Stage 21 (ITT) results

Tadej PogaÄar is the winner of Tour de France 2024, before Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. The stage from Monaco to Nice was won by Tadej PogaÄar.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Peyroteo94]

I will say this again. I can be totally wrong but it's hard for me to see anyone close to Pogacar in this TT.
30 seconds of margin at least.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The more I think about it, the more I just think Pogacar cleans this easily. His WC ITTs in 2021 and 2022 weren't that bad, especially considering he probably was mainly peaking for Lombardia in those seasons.

And Evenepoel has never really crushed a TT this hilly.

It really depends on form on a given day. I think Pogacar with the form from this Tour's flat TT wins it rather comfortably. He likely won't be that strong though. Evenepoel is also a bit of a question mark: he can be razor sharp after altitude training and then Pogacar can find it very difficult to win.

 

[Brullnux]

By this way of thinking it's not a "normal" TT (680 vertical meters).

That's true, though I was more thinking about gradients and the size of climbs. That said, the gradients are much tougher than I first thought.

 

[Berniece]

I already forgot that this happened. Great way to start the TT.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think the course should suit Evenepoel better than Pogacar despite what the initial look at the profile suggests. It looks to be mostly big wide roads, not technical at all (even the downhills), I would guess pretty much all of it in the tuck position except maybe the cobbled climb which, while not Kwaremont, is not exactly smooth either.

 

[Berniece]

I think the course should suit Evenepoel better than Pogacar despite what the initial look at the profile suggests. It looks to be mostly big wide roads, not technical at all (even the downhills), I would guess pretty much all of it in the tuck position except maybe the cobbled climb which, while not Kwaremont, is not exactly smooth either.

At what percentage do you think the cutoff is for tuck position? For example at the Dauphine, Evenepoel didn't do most of the climb in tuck position.

Also people are acting as if Evenepoel can't ride cobbles uphill when he showed he was good at it at Brabantse Pijl.

 

[AmRacer]

At what percentage do you think the cutoff is for tuck position? For example at the Dauphine, Evenepoel didn't do most of the climb in tuck position.

Also people are acting as if Evenepoel can't ride cobbles uphill when he showed he was good at it at Brabantse Pijl.

I would say average

 

[Salvarani]

I think the course should suit Evenepoel better than Pogacar despite what the initial look at the profile suggests. It looks to be mostly big wide roads, not technical at all (even the downhills), I would guess pretty much all of it in the tuck position except maybe the cobbled climb which, while not Kwaremont, is not exactly smooth either.

Yeah, the climbs doesnt look very hard and something Remco should handle

He is still the favorite

 

[KenFiamingo]

1500m altitude means reduced air resistance. Combine this with Remco's aero-skin and he'll be basically sucked into the finish. And with SQS impeccable weight management of Remco, this can't go wrong.

 

[Lequack]

Does anyone really expect Pog to beat Remco here? This is not the Tour de France.

 

[Squire]

1500m altitude means reduced air resistance. Combine this with Remco's aero-skin and he'll be basically sucked into the finish. And with SQS impeccable weight management of Remco, this can't go wrong.

I know you're being humorous, but wouldn't reduced air resistance favour the not-so-aero riders?

 

[Netserk]

I know you're being humorous, but wouldn't reduced air resistance favour the not-so-aero riders?

Yes.

 

[KenFiamingo]

I know you're being humorous, but wouldn't reduced air resistance favour the not-so-aero riders?

Surely, but not if you have nano-grade aero skin 🤫

 

[Berniece]

Does anyone really expect Pog to beat Remco here? This is not the Tour de France.

Almost everyone

 

[Berflamand]

Yes.

I have no clue about this stuff but could this have a significant impact on the aero (dis)advantage of the top TT riders or would that impact be negligible?

I'm very curious about this TT. I really have no idea what to expect. I feel like it's a TT unlike any we have seen in recent years. It's at altitude, it has a significant amount of altitude meters but the gradients are mostly shallow and it looks completely non-technical on big wide roads.

I guess a podium consisting of Remco, Pogi and Vine would make the most sense but I have no clue about the order. I do hope Remco comes out on top though.

 

[Berniece]

I have no clue about this stuff but could this have a significant impact on the aero (dis)advantage of the top TT riders or would that impact be negligible?

I'm very curious about this TT. I really have no idea what to expect. I feel like it's a TT unlike any we have seen in recent years. It's at altitude, it has a significant amount of altitude meters but the gradients are mostly shallow and it looks completely non-technical on big wide roads.

I guess a podium consisting of Remco, Pogi and Vine would make the most sense but I have no clue about the order. I do hope Remco comes out on top though.

It would be funny to see Vine take it thanks to the extremely wide roads and the course not being technical. I think he could've been close last year without the crash.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Not a fan of the course. I like my TTs to have some flat in them.

Agree - it's the opposite to 2013 editions Montecatini/Pistoia - Firenze.
Personally, I like the versions that have it all;
Short technical sections, steep ramps, fast descents, semi-technical descents, semi-long climbs and then most likely: 10k pancake flat pure straights in both ends, all the spicy stuff put in between.

 

[Netserk]

I have no clue about this stuff but could this have a significant impact on the aero (dis)advantage of the top TT riders or would that impact be negligible?

I'm very curious about this TT. I really have no idea what to expect. I feel like it's a TT unlike any we have seen in recent years. It's at altitude, it has a significant amount of altitude meters but the gradients are mostly shallow and it looks completely non-technical on big wide roads.

I guess a podium consisting of Remco, Pogi and Vine would make the most sense but I have no clue about the order. I do hope Remco comes out on top though.

I think changes in air resistance is of negligible importance between riders. How well the riders are currently adapted to altitude and less oxygen should matter far more.