World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28

[Cookster15]

a jetlag TT

First time I've read this. How many days before the TT did Pog fly into Kigali ?

And whilst its maybe a 12 hr flight there is no time zone difference in Rwanda which is the bigger issue on jet-lag.

 

[Escarabajo]

The slight altitude will bite some in the rear!

 

[Cycling111]

The reason I'm going with a gigantic gap is the route being much harder than last year. It's frankly unlike anything we've seen in the modern era.

I also think the TT doesn't translate well to the road race at all. Pogacar deleted everyone by unprecedented gaps in Montreal. I think that's much more telling than a jetlag TT.

The most comparable race to this road race is actually Strade Bianche, and he wins that one by minutes every year. And while Strade has the gravel, it only has half the altitude gain and is 50km shorter and not at altitude.

Some have said that one of the problems with the time trial is that he hasn´t done altitude camp.

I don't know how long he needs to acclimatize.

 

[Cycling111]

First time I've read this. How many days before the TT did Pog fly into Kigali ?

And whilst its maybe a 12 hr flight there is no time zone difference in Rwanda which is the bigger issue on jet-lag.

I guess he's referring to the travel to Canada.

 

[YavorD]

I don't think Pogacar will win this.
I do think he'll be the strongest, but the weakness of Slovenia would allow for some dangerous moves that would make the race hard for him.
I'm picking an "ousider" to win it. Carapaz or such.

 

[YavorD]

Also, I can't believe Pidcock has less votes than Jay Vine? Recency bias or something?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Honest question - given that modern classics are often won by long solos now, which should theoretically favor the best and boldest ITTers, Remco has won multiple classics and Worlds and has displayed strong abilities in long classics, why does the consensus still seem to be that Pogacar will win in a landslide? Just trying to reconcile that with watching Remco now down Pogacar, outperforming him on the flat and on the climbs, Pogacar trying to cling to Remco’s wheel in an undignified way, against the rules and in vein.

Is it because people suspect Remco’s endurance?
You think Pogacar is jet lagged?
You think Pogacar is just way worse on a TT bike than a road bike, whereas the reverse might be true for Remco?
You think group 2 syndrome will kick in with Pogacar off the front but not with Remco off the front?
Something else?

 

[red_flanders]

Also, I can't believe Pidcock has less votes than Jay Vine? Recency bias or something?

Form bias?

 

[Pippo_San]

I don't think he can lose this.
TADEJ ALL THE WAY (it even rhymes)

 

[houtdffan]

the flight shouldn't have been an issue.

All the top riders likely had flat beds in business class

 

[Monsi]

Honest question - given that modern classics are often won by long solos now, which should theoretically favor the best and boldest ITTers, Remco has won multiple classics and Worlds and has displayed strong abilities in long classics, why does the consensus still seem to be that Pogacar will win in a landslide?

That statement also still literally applies to Pogacar.

Just trying to reconcile that with watching Remco now down Pogacar, outperforming him on the flat and on the climbs, Pogacar trying to cling to Remco’s wheel in an undignified way, against the rules and in vein.

Just because that happened in the TT doesn't automatically translate to the RR, unless Pogacar really messed up in his prep and is in bad shape, which I find hard to believe because Pogacar was good in Montreal. The RR parcours really suits Pogacar a lot, especially that cobbled climb.

Is it because people suspect Remco’s endurance?
You think Pogacar is jet lagged?
You think Pogacar is just way worse on a TT bike than a road bike, whereas the reverse might be true for Remco?
You think group 2 syndrome will kick in with Pogacar off the front but not with Remco off the front?
Something else?

Question 1: I don't think anyone suspects Remco's endurance but I'd say Pogacar's is still better.
Question 2: I think so, couple that with Pogi not having any altitude camp.
Question 3: Not necessarily, but I'd say Pogi may be much more comfortable on a road bike. I mean, he's still one of the best time trialists in the world. He probably just doesn't train on a TT bike that much.
Question 4: If Pogi goes solo, I just think G2 syndrome kicks in a lot if Remco is in the chase group because everyone will cling on to Remco, especially after his dominant TT performance. The chances of Remco being frustrated when no one wants to help him is high. Someone else from Belgium needs to be in that chase group. If Remco is the lone Belgian, the only way he can catch Pogi imo is if he is able to drop the rest of the chase group and maybe have one companion who is willing to work with him (like Amstel this year). If it's the other way around (Remco in front, Pogi in the chase), G2 syndrome will also kick in. But if Remco is able to get separation from Pogi, then I just think Pogi is on a bad day and he won't win anyway. If Pogi is in good form, he will always follow any Remco attack.

 

[Cookster15]

but the weakness of Slovenia would allow for some dangerous moves that would make the race hard for him.
I'm picking an "ousider" to win it. Carapaz or such.

You may end up right Pog doesn't win but not for this reason. As for the weakess of Slovenia, they have Primož Roglič, Doman Novak and Matej Mohorič in their team. Not too shabby?

For Carapaz using your logic it would mean Ecuador is to be stronger than Slovenia? If Pogacar goes in a dangerous move who can stay with him? That is how you need to think. Perhaps a more likely outsider would be Alaphilippe (France) ? JA just won in Québec.

 

[Sciatic]

Honest question - given that modern classics are often won by long solos now, which should theoretically favor the best and boldest ITTers, Remco has won multiple classics and Worlds and has displayed strong abilities in long classics, why does the consensus still seem to be that Pogacar will win in a landslide? Just trying to reconcile that with watching Remco now down Pogacar, outperforming him on the flat and on the climbs, Pogacar trying to cling to Remco’s wheel in an undignified way, against the rules and in vein.

Is it because people suspect Remco’s endurance?
You think Pogacar is jet lagged?
You think Pogacar is just way worse on a TT bike than a road bike, whereas the reverse might be true for Remco?
You think group 2 syndrome will kick in with Pogacar off the front but not with Remco off the front?
Something else?

We know is a problem for any rider if you let Remco get a gap. But why in the world would Pogacar not follow if Remco tries to get away early? He’s not going to just ride him off his wheel. In fact Remco didn’t do himself a favor for the road race, because Pogacar will even be more attentive to him now that he sees what good form he has. And there is no MVDP here for him to pay close attention to. If Pogacar somehow hasn’t recovered from the Tour then that’s another matter.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't think he can lose this.
TADEJ ALL THE WAY (it even rhymes)

Then why vote Vino?

 

[red_flanders]

We know is a problem for any rider if you let Remco get a gap. But why in the world would Pogacar not follow if Remco tries to get away early? He’s not going to just ride him off his wheel. In fact Remco didn’t do himself a favor for the road race, because Pogacar will even be more attentive to him now that he sees what good form he has. And there is no MVDP here for him to pay close attention to. If Pogacar somehow hasn’t recovered from the Tour then that’s another matter.

It's extremely difficult to drop Pogacar, but it's not impossible. But yeah, Remco would have to drop or out-sprint him.

I honestly don't think this course is good for Remco, I don't see him winning. But it's not crazy talk to think it could happen.

 

[HashRouge]

Honest question - given that modern classics are often won by long solos now, which should theoretically favor the best and boldest ITTers, Remco has won multiple classics and Worlds and has displayed strong abilities in long classics, why does the consensus still seem to be that Pogacar will win in a landslide? Just trying to reconcile that with watching Remco now down Pogacar, outperforming him on the flat and on the climbs, Pogacar trying to cling to Remco’s wheel in an undignified way, against the rules and in vein.

Is it because people suspect Remco’s endurance?
You think Pogacar is jet lagged?
You think Pogacar is just way worse on a TT bike than a road bike, whereas the reverse might be true for Remco?
You think group 2 syndrome will kick in with Pogacar off the front but not with Remco off the front?
Something else?

I think it's two reasons. A lot of people are not convinced that Remco will be able to get a gap on Pogacar, whereas we know Pogacar has dropped Remco before. I'm sceptical that Remco would be able to launch a sneak attack, as Pogacar is normally pretty good at marking his man and I'd expect him to really keep an eye on Remco here. It's also that this course is so different to the TT, it's such a different kind of effort that there is no certainty that Remco's form will translate across to the RR. In theory Remco should be good on this course, but so should Pogacar. I honestly don't know though. I'm hedging my bets on Pogacar's form at the moment, and I still think there is a decent chance for someone like Carapaz.

 

[peterfin]

The reason I'm going with a gigantic gap is the route being much harder than last year. It's frankly unlike anything we've seen in the modern era.

I also think the TT doesn't translate well to the road race at all. Pogacar deleted everyone by unprecedented gaps in Montreal. I think that's much more telling than a jetlag TT.

The most comparable race to this road race is actually Strade Bianche, and he wins that one by minutes every year. And while Strade has the gravel, it only has half the altitude gain and is 50km shorter and not at altitude.

The route looks much harder but how hard will it actually be? We miss half the peleton. The quality of the teams is much lower than usual. And regarding the route: Remco compares most of the race a bit with the amstel gold race

 

[RedheadDane]

Is this some setting thing I'm unaware of?

I think whether or not you're seeing them depends on which kind of device you're on.
On my phone, I'm seeing the emojis.
On my computer, I'm just seeing those little two-letter country codes.

 

[search]

Is this some setting thing I'm unaware of?

I think whether or not you're seeing them depends on which kind of device you're on.
On my phone, I'm seeing the emojis.
On my computer, I'm just seeing those little two-letter country codes.

it's a browser issues. With Firefox for example, it works as it should, for others, there are add-ons to fix it

https://www.reddit.com/r/MicrosoftEdge/comments/vubnp6/addon_to_display_flag_emojis_instead_of_country

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/MicrosoftEdge/comments/vubnp6/addon_to_display_flag_emojis_instead_of_country/

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Climbs at Kigali don't look hard / long enough to better suit Pogacar

I find this a bit strange when we have seen Pogacar absolutely dominate RvV. He doesn’t need long, superhard climbs to drop everyone.

 

[Jan the Man]

I find this a bit strange when we have seen Pogacar absolutely dominate RvV. He doesn’t need long, superhard climbs to drop everyone.

Agreed - the length of the race and nature of the climbs (cobbled) if anything play to his hands given this particular field- that is not to say he will be on the same level of form.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

That cobbled climb is a major disadvantage for someone like Remco.

 

[Berniece]

That cobbled climb is a major disadvantage for someone like Remco.

You clearly didn't see Brabantse Pijl and the WC ITT this year

 

[Red Rick]

You clearly didn't see Brabantse Pijl and the WC ITT this year

Neither are great to predict how he goes on a cobbled climb 17 times in a 265 5000m desnivel race tbh.

In a TT he's gonna do everything relatively better because he adapts to the TT bike better and he's better at such an effort.

Jay Vine was by far the fastest on the cobbles and I don't think anyone is saying he's a favorite for Sunday now.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The cobbles seems pretty smooth on a wide road, I don't think Remco will have problems on this section in isolation. Short, steep and narrow or PR stuff where continuous positioning is critical is very different imo.