World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28

[Red Rick]

Your ranking is very different to mine. Even despite your bias, I am surprised you rank roglic so highly. Can we really consider him more of a favourite in such a long, punchy race than piddock, Ciccone or Heally, for instance?

We should not.

The only caveat I have for Roglic is that he comes in more prepared than ever for a race like this, but that's about it. This sort of high attrition race does not normally suit him. Roglic is an outsider for the podium, and if he get 20th or worse it's not that much of a surprise.

For me the top candidates for 2nd are Pidcock, Ciccone and Healy.

 

[tobydawq]

Your ranking is very different to mine. Even despite your bias, I am surprised you rank roglic so highly. Can we really consider him more of a favourite in such a long, punchy race than piddock, Ciccone or Heally, for instance?

No.

 

[Berniece]

Exactly. Evenepoel thrives on routes that are hard enough to disturb a chase but not so hard it's all about the climbing and the rouleur sections still dominate the climbing. That's why he wins the Olympics. That's why he wins the WC in 2022 ahead of a bunch sprint for 2nd. That's why he comes back in Amstel after the only few hard hills. It's also why I think he should try to race RVV

This route, is not that at all. To me it's like if you look at how dead everyone is on the final Oude Kwaremont in RVV, and now we get that at altitude, with a steeper climb, with much more desnivel.

Evenepoel showed in Lombardia he can also do long, climb races. There is no one besides Pogacar that does this better. If Pogacar is now actually not at his best and Evenepoel is, we get a race.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Your ranking is very different to mine. Even despite your bias, I am surprised you rank roglic so highly. Can we really consider him more of a favourite in such a long, punchy race than piddock, Ciccone or Heally, for instance?

Due to elevation meters this will be a very select race in terms of who even can be considered a favourite before the race starts. And of course in that select group Rogla is one of the main ones.

 

[Low is rhe new high]

I'm the only one to think Remco and Pogacar will attack together and collaborate until Pogacar drops Remco in the end?

I believe they will be alone the last 30 k or so but I think it will end in a sprint which I hope Remco beats the odds and win.

 

[red_flanders]

So exactly recency bias then? A rider snows good form in races that suit him or preparational races and people pick him for the type of races he has zero results in (a bit like Ciccone before the Vuelta).

As far as the form goes, is Pidcock not in shape, did he underperform in the Vuelta?
And he, Pidcock, has much better one day results than Vine.

Agree on Pidcock form and palmares. Vine looks really strong right now is all I’m saying. I would think he bears watching/marking as much as anyone.

 

[Red Rick]

Agree on Pidcock form and palmares. Vine looks really strong right now is all I’m saying. I would think he bears watching/marking as much as anyone.

Vine has never done anything in one day races and prepared very specifically for this TT.

 

[Berniece]

I believe they will be alone the last 30 k or so but I think it will end in a sprint which I hope Remco beats the odds and win.

Only if he's smart enough to eventually say he won't take the lead anymore and sit on the wheel of Pogacar. Not like he did at Brabantse Pijl and AGR.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Juanito: "Would I sign up for silver now? No"

Teddy will have a fierce rival, won't he? But will the Spaniard have the legs to do anything?

'Would I sign up for silver now? No' – Juan Ayuso is only thinking about the rainbow jersey at the Road World Championships

'It's the one-day race I've been most excited about since I became a professional' says Spanish leader

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[hayneplane]

We should not.

The only caveat I have for Roglic is that he comes in more prepared than ever for a race like this, but that's about it. This sort of high attrition race does not normally suit him. Roglic is an outsider for the podium, and if he get 20th or worse it's not that much of a surprise.

For me the top candidates for 2nd are Pidcock, Ciccone and Healy.

Probably an equal chance with Roglic that he wins a small group sprint for a medal or rolls in 25th at 5 minutes.

 

[veganrob]

Agree on Pidcock form and palmares. Vine looks really strong right now is all I’m saying. I would think he bears watching/marking as much as anyone.

They both have the ability to disrupt things. Especially Pidcock.

 

[chickenlips]

I really hope Remco doesn't crash out, as I can't be bothered with all the "He didn't get any winter base training in" so it will wreck his early season form. Make him quit the Tour, and come back to win the world's ITT next year, making hime favourite for the RR and the Tour 26. I'm going for Skyelmose to throw a spanner in the works, but its a bit of a lottery unless Pog is on it.

 

[Berniece]

Come back to win the world's ITT next year, making hime favourite for the RR and the Tour 26

Quite the jump from WC ITT win to TDF'26 favourite

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Evenepoel showed in Lombardia he can also do long, climb races. There is no one besides Pogacar that does this better. If Pogacar is now actually not at his best and Evenepoel is, we get a race.

If Pogacar is under the weather the race is more open. I think then there are a few guys capable of winning it (Evenepoel heading the list but not necessarily an overwhelming favourite).

 

[chickenlips]

Quite the jump from WC ITT win to TDF'26 favourite

Yeah, brain fart for me, 27. 😂

 

[Berniece]

If Pogacar is under the weather the race is more open. I think then there are a few guys capable of winning it (Evenepoel heading the list but not necessarily an overwhelming favourite).

If there's no Pogacar I think this would be like LBL'23.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If there's no Pogacar I think this would be like LBL'23.

TBH, I'm not sure how good his current base is for a race with 5500 vertical meters. He could distance the rest or not.

 

[Berniece]

TBH, I'm not sure how good his base is for a race with 5500 vertical meters. He could distance the rest or not.

Good point, I can also see him collapse 3 rounds before the finish. But I'm assuming he's now actually ready, and in the right shape.

 

[topcat]

If Pog loses it will be because of jetlag/tiredness from the 2 year peak/Urska's cold. If Remco loses it will be because he trained specifically for the tt.
Alaphilippe won't make excuses, he will just shrug his shoulders and say comme d'habitude.
Rory Townsend is poised to be the first redhead home.

 

[Cycling111]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970446661399777381

View: https://x.com/cirogazzetta/status/1970446661399777381?t=PeETaylIMtGdZiWkpIY91A&s=19

 

[Berflamand]

If Remco wins / gets a gap, it will be despite that climb, and for sure in another place on the parcours. That climb is ideal to bridge a gap to Remco, it's ideal to make a gap by Pog, it's bad for Remco's ability to retain the lead while doing a solo. It's maybe not detrimental, but it's for sure not in his favour (steep, slow, powerclimb on cobbles).

Be assured I'm not here to talk Remco's chances down. I just think the climb isn't his thing. What I disagree with that others have mentioned, is that Remco couldn't get a gap. The main talent of Remco is that he can attack at any point in the race, preferably not on the steep sections where some other riders are probably as good or better, but on the flatter / slightly uphill or downhill sections (those places where no one can create any gap but Remco). That's his main talent and this course is great for that, if he has the legs.

I agree with your second paragraph but regarding your first paragraph, aren't we starting to overestimate the cobbled climb a bit because of the TT races? I mean, doing a cobbled climb on a stiff TT bike is very different from doing it on a road bike I would think. Also, for the TT Evenepoel had a single 62 chainring which they knew was a slight risk because if he ran out of power it would be too big a gear to overcome the climb. On the pictures you could see he was pushing a much bigger gear than Pogacar on the steep parts. This will be totally different in the Road Race.

The cobbles don't look nearly as hard as the cobbles of the Oude Kwaremont and the climb is not nearly as steep as Koppenberg or Paterberg for example. The steeper part only lasts for a couple hundred meters.

I'd like to see the first Road Races to know if the cobbles actually will make much of a difference.

 

[Netserk]

Don't understand why Ciccone is not listed in the poll, after winning San Sebastián, finishing second at Liège to Pogacar and third at Lombardia to Pogacar and Evenepoel in the past twelve months he has to be considered the third-best rider in the world on this sort of terrain.

His saddle sore/infection and bad end to the Vuelta makes me doubt him more than if he had abandoned halfway through.

 

[SafeBet]

Talking to RAI, Italian DS Marco Villa confirmed Pellizzari is ill and won't travel to Rwanda. Villa called Scaroni to check if he was available but Scaroni declined, saying he wants to focus on the EC as originally planned.

Good news is Giulio Ciccone feels good and healthy.

 

[Netserk]

Your ranking is very different to mine. Even despite your bias, I am surprised you rank roglic so highly. Can we really consider him more of a favourite in such a long, punchy race than piddock, Ciccone or Heally, for instance?

For a podium spot? No.

To beat Pogi? Yes.

 

[Red Rick]

For a podium spot? No.

To beat Pogi? Yes.

How much of that is tactical rather than Roglic being legit the best of the rest?