If we were talking about 5-10 races, i'd agree. But for all riders we are talking about 60+ races so i think the sample size is adequate to see a clear pattern emerge. Plenty of classic-style stages among those stages as well. If as a GC rider you feel you have a chance there to take time, surely you take it.
Everything you are saying is correct with either some details either dismissed or omitted.
When you are racing for a trade team, everyone is working towards a goal that includes giving up your bike, pacing people back who pop, puncture or crash. Trade team riders break wind, get water,food, rain jacket (? Lol) . So now the rider pedigree paperwork still holds up but the teamwork and tactics subtlety change. And nobody wants to admit it but hiding is beneficial and in current WT peloton there is lots of parity and you can sit in a little bit, hide from the wind to some degree. In international races like this guys are going to immediately be blowing up all over the place and if good nations turn up the heat just a little more than half the field will fry off. I predict that there is a @20-25 rider selection within @100k and chase is unenthusiastic rolling behind them at 5+ minutes back..
I expect to see very little national pride from guys who pop and if you are normally good and start having a bad day DNF and climb in the car. Start enjoying air conditioning and eating snacks. Maybe some tiny countries , Africans are going to finish because but none of the western guys will hurt themselves chasing in this race.
You have nailed it. Australia has limited options in the RR. Too hard for Matthews, Hindley is an average one day races, Plapp could do OK, however, there best option may be Storer.
Slight deviation.. Michael Matthews despite being 100 years old knows how to race his bike, I have been constantly surprised at how well he finishes.He definitely doesn't have lots of starts this year but he has some decent results. Absolutely the darkest of dark horses