World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If it were spring, I'd say Morgado could be the Dark Horse, but he's looked really bad in recent races.

The past 1.5 seasons i've caught myself thinking "ah right, that guy exists" very often. So far not living up to the hype.

 

[Berniece]

This one might come back and haunt you.

Because he won’t ride top 5?

 

[tobydawq]

How fancy with the flags in the poll.

 

[Red Rick]

How fancy with the flags in the poll.

Is this some setting thing I'm unaware of?

 

[Berniece]

Is this some setting thing I'm unaware of?

Nope, those are just emoji's and I took the time to do that because it's the world championship.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I've added the poll. If people wonder why Roglic isn't part of that list, it's because I just looked at the top 9 most favourable to win according to a betting site. I personally think Roglic will ride top 5.

I forgive you. Good that at least you added Pogacar to the list!

 

[Sciatic]

I added this thread to discuss this specifically. More than enough riders will go to Rwanda in the following days, and have shown to be in decent form. Look at Skjelmose in Luxembourg for example.

I think Pog will still be very good on Sunday. Apparently he's doing 2 hard trainings still in the next few days to get ready.

I very much appreciate your making the thread but posting it this far before the race could mean 5 days of “yes he will/ no he won’t”. Hopefully folks will also post about outsiders chances, rider quotes, and photos of cafe stops

 

[HashRouge]

I very much appreciate your making the thread but posting it this far before the race could mean 5 days of “yes he will/ no he won’t”. Hopefully folks will also post about outsiders chances, rider quotes, and photos of cafe stops

I think a good outsider like del Toro is going to win. I reckon there will be a big break with some good riders, and Belgium and Slovenia won't be able to bring it back. Del Toro will become UAE's new favourite and Pog will leave for EF or some other team with a more wholesome sponsor. The last bit is wishful thinking, but I do think someone like del Toro could take it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If we will be talking for five days about outsides, cyclist that didn't make it into the poll, then best to start with somebody like Roglič or Alaphilippe.

 

[peterfin]

I think a good outsider like del Toro is going to win. I reckon there will be a big break with some good riders, and Belgium and Slovenia won't be able to bring it back. Del Toro will become UAE's new favourite and Pog will leave for EF or some other team with a more wholesome sponsor. The last bit is wishful thinking, but I do think someone like del Toro could take it.

That is wishful thinking indeed I would go for Jay Vine as outsider.

 

[YellowSocks]

Remco will win. RBH being specialized in jerseys which are total graphic messes, not having to wear one should be enough motivation to win any race.

Just imagine you're being chased by a giant ugly jersey.

 

[HashRouge]

Remco will win. RBH being specialized in jerseys which are total graphic messes, not having to wear one should be enough motivation to win any race.

Just imagine you're being chased by a giant ugly jersey.

Ah, but Pog has the threat of wearing that oil-stained atrocity that UAE have, which is even worse. He won't want to risk winning Lombardia looking like he got caught in an oil slick in the Atlantic.

 

[YellowSocks]

Ah, but Pog has the threat of wearing that oil-stained atrocity that UAE have, which is even worse. He won't want to risk winning Lombardia looking like get got caught in an oil slick in the Atlantic.

I must say I find the UAE jersey decent from a distance.
From a distance, you know it's a RBH rider only because at first you can't tell his team. Absolutely no charisma.

 

[HashRouge]

I must say I find the UAE jersey decent from a distance.
From a distance, you know it's a RBH rider only because at first you can't tell his team. Absolutely no charisma.

I have to admit, I quite liked the Redbull Tour kit, that grew on me as the race went on.

 

[Mako]

I'm still under the impression that Pog underestimated the altitude of this whole thing.
Someone like del Toro who lived most of his live at 3000 m slm should be more used to it, but then again, I think the race is too long for him. There's usually not too many that can win a race of more than 250k.

Also too long for Primoz I'm afraid, but I would love to be proven otherwise.

Remco for the double it is.

 

[Pantani_lives]

An ideal scenario for Pogacar would be to have Sivakov in the early break. Then he gets away with Alaphilippe on the Mur de Kigali, about 100 km before the finish. They join the early break and Sivakov can pretend to work for Alaphilippe for a lap or three. Then Pog goes solo.

 

[Cookster15]

5* - Alaphilippe
4* - pogacar, pidcock
3*- evenepoel, Healy, Ciccone
2* - carapaz, madouas, del Toro, hirschi
1* - van wilder, storer, adria, fortunato, symonds

Thanks for your tips. Fixed the most obvious spelling errors. Never seen JA spelled that way, even in a hurry

 

[KZD]

I'm still under the impression that Pog underestimated the altitude of this whole thing.
Someone like del Toro who lived most of his live at 3000 m slm should be more used to it, but then again, I think the race is too long for him. There's usually not too many that can win a race of more than 250k.

Also too long for Primoz I'm afraid, but I would love to be proven otherwise.

Remco for the double it is.

Del Toro is from Ensenada at sea level. I do agree that the road race will be too long for him.

 

[Tim Cahill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970208776889499699

Juan Ayuso is here to win, his mentor and spiritual guide, 'Bala', in the car giving him sage words of advice like Yoda to young Luke.

 

[Cycling111]

Del Toro is from Ensenada at sea level. I do agree that the road race will be too long for him.

That's the problem Ayuso has had so far. He disappears in long races.

Roglic is also not as good as is in short classics.

I see no one has supported my idea about Pedersen. The problem is Mont Kigali, but Pedersen has overcome tough climbs in Paris-Nice. If he managed to survive Mont Kigali, a rider like Pedersen is more experienced in long and tough races than climbers who are used to do 150-200 kilometer stages.

 

[Cookster15]

He wasn't afraid to launch comically early last season, I don't see why he should be now. We've seen in Glasgow he can doa completely garbage TT and still be there at the tail end of a crazy road race, and that one didn't even really suit him.

Pogacar won last year's race by 30 secs from Ben O'Conner. Not sure but I get the feeling Pogacar was in better shape in 2024?

So not sure where predicting Pogi will win by 3'49 in front of Ciccone and Pidcock comes from?

More likely after what we saw in the TT and on this course is Remco is in the mix if not the rider winning by 3 minutes solo. Climbs at Kigali don't look hard / long enough to better suit Pogacar and altitude isn't high enough to worry Remco. JA the sentimental favorite.

The thing many haven't mentioned is Remco will be smarting after his failure at the Tour. To win the TT / RR jerseys at once would go a long way to erasing that disappointment. To hold both jerseys would really be something.

I still think Pogacar will win but am not confident. There is no scenario where I see Pogi winning by 3 minutes solo.

 

[Mako]

Del Toro is from Ensenada at sea level. I do agree that the road race will be too long for him.

My bad, I somehow had in mind that he was from Mexico City. Obviously wrong, thanks for correcting.

 

[Cycling111]

Pogacar won last year's race by 30 secs from Ben O'Conner. Not sure but I get the feeling Pogacar was in better shape in 2024?

So not sure where predicting Pogi will win by 3'49 in front of Ciccone and Pidcock comes from?

More likely after what we saw in the TT and on this course is Remco is in the mix if not the rider winning by 3 minutes solo. Climbs at Kigali don't look hard / long enough to better suit Pogacar and altitude isn't high enough to worry Remco. JA the sentimental favorite.

The thing many haven't mentioned is Remco will be smarting after his failure at the Tour. To win the TT / RR jerseys at once would go a long way to erasing that disappointment. To hold both jerseys would really be something.

I still think Pogacar will win but am not confident. There is no scenario where I see Pogi winning by 3 minutes solo.

He won the world championship by "only" 30 seconds because he attacked 100 kilometers from the finish , and O'Connor was in a group.
He wone Lombardia by more than 3 minutes.

I wouldn't say he won by just 30 seconds, without taking the context into account; we've already seen later the difference in Lombardia.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar won last year's race by 30 secs from Ben O'Conner. Not sure but I get the feeling Pogacar was in better shape in 2024?

So not sure where predicting Pogi will win by 3'49 in front of Ciccone and Pidcock comes from?

More likely after what we saw in the TT and on this course is Remco is in the mix if not the rider winning by 3 minutes solo. Climbs at Kigali don't look hard / long enough to better suit Pogacar and altitude isn't high enough to worry Remco. JA the sentimental favorite.

The thing many haven't mentioned is Remco will be smarting after his failure at the Tour. To win the TT / RR jerseys at once would go a long way to erasing that disappointment. To hold both jerseys would really be something.

I still think Pogacar will win but am not confident. There is no scenario where I see Pogi winning by 3 minutes solo.

The reason I'm going with a gigantic gap is the route being much harder than last year. It's frankly unlike anything we've seen in the modern era.

I also think the TT doesn't translate well to the road race at all. Pogacar deleted everyone by unprecedented gaps in Montreal. I think that's much more telling than a jetlag TT.

The most comparable race to this road race is actually Strade Bianche, and he wins that one by minutes every year. And while Strade has the gravel, it only has half the altitude gain and is 50km shorter and not at altitude.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The reason I'm going with a gigantic gap is the route being much harder than last year. It's frankly unlike anything we've seen in the modern era.

I also think the TT doesn't translate well to the road race at all. Pogacar deleted everyone by unprecedented gaps in Montreal. I think that's much more telling than a jetlag TT.

The most comparable race to this road race is actually Strade Bianche, and he wins that one by minutes every year. And while Strade has the gravel, it only has half the altitude gain and is 50km shorter and not at altitude.

Kimihurura is perfect for Pogacar from what I saw in the TT. It seems very tough.