You may end up right Pog doesn't win but not for this reason. As for the weakess of Slovenia, they have Primož Roglič, Doman Novak and Matej Mohorič in their team. Not too shabby?
For Carapaz using your logic it would mean Ecuador is to be stronger than Slovenia? If Pogacar goes in a dangerous move who can stay with him? That is how the other you need to think. Perhaps a more likely outsider would be Alaphilippe (France) ? JA just won in Québec.
Well, Roglic isn't the most reliable team mate, is he? And someone said he may even join moves.
As for Novak and Mohoric, they've been questionable all season long.
As for Carapaz, why would you use the same logic?
Pogacar is the maaassive favourite. His team will have to control, Carapaz isn't. Ecuador doesn't need to do anything.
And since I expect the other teams to attack with their B and C options, I can totally see Carapaz joining such a move.
And yes If noone stays with Pogacar, he probably wins. But if someone (Alaphilippe, Pidcock, Evenepoel....) stays with him after his initial attack, and they have a team mate up front, would they work
with for Pogacar? No, I don't think so. That group simply doesn't cooperate, and I don't see how Pogacar would just ride with all these riders on his wheel not taking turns.