World Championships 2024: Men's Road Race (September 29)

[2WpK]

This is an easy call. Pogi will do exactly what Jan Christen did but will be able to finish it off.

 

[Lequack]

Campanaerts posted some Belgian tactics

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[spicelab]

I'm in the minority but I think MVDP's sprint is actually pretty suspect. Particularly a long sprint after a hard race. Don't see him beating Pog if they go to the line together.

 

[zlev11]

I think VDP is the big favorite. I never understood why people were saying this course had too much climbing for him, the climbs are short and steep just like Flanders and Amstel Gold. it's nothing like LBL or Lombardia and we've seen it play out that way in the races the last two days. the wildcard is Pogacar going long and the Dutch not having enough firepower to bring him back but they should get some help from Belgium.

 

[Rob5091]

This is an easy call. Pogi will do exactly what Jan Christen did but will be able to finish it off.

I too got vibes of this is a Pogi rehearsal. Climbs are n't long enough to leave it to the last lap so up the tempo and light blue touch paper on penultimate lap.
Make ma Pogi proud, Teddy, "look at me ma, top of the World!"

 

[Pantani_lives]

The beginning of the final lap is the obvious place to attack. It's still 20 km after those first two climbs, a good distance for a solo. Before that it's probably smarter to ride defensively and let the team control the race.

 

[Kwaremonster]

Pogacar and Evenepoel owe us one of the most anticipated duels (in hilly classics) of the last years. If this ends up in anything other than a photo finish, the results should be declared null and void.

 

[SHAD0W93]

For other Americans, will the race be shown on Peacock?

 

[rghysens]

This is an easy call. Pogi will do exactly what Jan Christen did but will be able to finish it off.

Looking at what happened this year, that would be highly likely. Barring crashes, I can not see Pog loose this race.

 

[Oldermanish]

Oh lawd he comin

This guy wins a two up sprint with anybody on this course. Except Roglic.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think VDP is the big favorite. I never understood why people were saying this course had too much climbing for him, the climbs are short and steep just like Flanders and Amstel Gold. it's nothing like LBL or Lombardia and we've seen it play out that way in the races the last two days. the wildcard is Pogacar going long and the Dutch not having enough firepower to bring him back but they should get some help from Belgium.

Well, Pogacar destroyed Van der Poel last time they met in Flanders, and this year's edition of Amstel showed that such a course might be just a little too hard for Van der Poel - or at least it's not where he is at his best - so even if the parcours is reminiscent of Flanders and Amstel, I don't see how Van der Poel is the favorite.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So will Teddy have his Kopecky today? Is MVP ready for that role?

 

[RedheadDane]

So will Teddy have his Kopecky today? Is MVP ready for that role?

Maybe he'll want to be Kopecky.
Winning, that is, not necessarily the same way.

 

[Jack_89]

So will Teddy have his Kopecky today? Is MVP ready for that role?

tbh, kopecky won thanks to the generous gift of longo borghini and vollering. they were far stronger, they had taken her off the wheel on the climbs but cause of the lack of collaboration of a couple of far less non-dangerous athletes ,they preferred to stop pulling with 15-20kms to go. shame on them, so kopecky rightly punished them.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Big change in wind direction compared to yesterday. Block headwind on Witikon.

Wind is weak but this isn't good news

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Big change in wind direction compared to yesterday. Block headwind on Witikon.

Worse for attackers but the wind should be rather weak in the afternoon: 2-3 m/s.

 

[tobydawq]

Big change in wind direction compared to yesterday. Block headwind on Witikon.

Pog always with the bad luck

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pog always with the bad luck

Bad luck merchant.

 

[Pantani_lives]

From the previous races we've learnt that it isn't necessarily the best climber who wins. I think Pogacar has about 30% chance to win, which means he also has 70% chance not to win.

One problem can be to control the race when a group of strong outsiders gets away: Van den Broek, Bardet, O'Connor, Powless... Maybe we'll get a surprise winner, like in the days of Vainsteins, Astarloa and Ballan.

 

[Jack_89]

Again the wind drama 🤣

 

[Heston]

Not expecting a very entertaining race. Pogacar will solo pretty easily, like Flanders last year.

Group 2 will do group 2 things and Remco will get frustrated and end up outside the medals.

VdP gonna get dropped bad and either get 30th place or DNF.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

This race is not just a bit, but massively longer than the races so far have been. I don't know if there really is a chance for a heavier rider here. If they do the round one or two more times, I don't think Behrens wins for example.

That being said:
Ramco and Pogi to sail away in tandem with 100k to go, just because they can.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This just ignores the dominance Pogacar and to a lesser extent Evenepoel have in one day races, even the not extremely hard ones.

In a normal one-day race (when super-teams can make the race very hard for lesser riders and chase down breakaways), I agree that the probability that one of Pogacar and Evenepoel wins is very high. Here instead we have national teams, which are generally weaker and the communication is also more difficult (no radios). Therefore, unpredictability of a WC RR is higher than in case of a standard monument (MSR aside).

 

[Salvarani]

Big change in wind direction compared to yesterday. Block headwind on Witikon.

If I speak!!!

 

[tobydawq]

Apparently, Skjelmose hurt his back this morning when rising from the breakfast table. I assume a nerve issue. He says they've tried everything to fix it but he feels horrible. He'll still start but doesn't seem to expect anything.

Great luck for the Danish team....