- Sep 25, 2009
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like you, and we both said it before, i consider the ukrainian crisis a proxy war. the trick is not in recognizing who the proxies are, but who is behind Ukraine's actions. if in the beginning of the 'revolution' the main driver was the us (with europe interested mainly in the uki-eu economic association), now it is the eu -or more specifically germany - that are increasingly stepping, or at least trying to, into the purely european crisis. i believe, the europeans recognized the fundamental differences btwn the eu and american goals in ukraine. thus i think, vlad, on the one hand, is maneuvering to increase the distance btwn germany and the us, and on another, to spoil the eu appetite for sanctions via moscow's traditional connections and influence in south europe - greece, italy, slovakia, spain cyprus, bulgaria..even the czechs... . slovakia yesterday even declared they are ready to veto ANY new sanctions... to achieve these goals, vlad tries to play both his military and economic chips.blackcat said:Putin's foreign advisor worth listening to.
Even though i maintain a skepticism and distance, atleast it was not the shrill Beeb or CNN version...
what was Python's opinion?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cikvqdMRTTA#t=11
vlad's military options are the most dangerous to himself and to europe. that mike whitney article was too one-sided,. while it is true, the rebels are on the roll, it is also obvious they can't take kiev. the most vlad can achieve by infiltrating ukraine with the russian volunteers and special op, is to create another frozen conflict like in transylvania, south osetia etc...europe dreads frozen conflicts. thus vlad calculates, they may pressure poro to adopt such a state federalization model, where russia will maintain poilitical influence in the south east and the defacto brake on the nato membership.
should vlad fail to extract the sufficient concessions, i believe he is prepared, or at least tries to convey THAT to germany, that a further military escalation will follow. it may further split and radicalize the eu, create a black hole for the billions they are still to sink in to ukraine and, finally, undermine the fragile recovery and the banks...geramany knows all too well, their export oriented economy and the fragile ruling coalition may stall.
and on a more distilled level, why and how did europe sink into such a mess ?
in my firm opinion, it is b/c europe refused to see the 'economy stupid'. they refused to heed a reasonable request from russia in november 2013 that the'd like to have a say in the rate of ukraine's integration into europe. not only russia's economy was not ready to handle the influence of the clearly more advanced european standards, it would stand to lose almost overnight the whole economic braches that are based on inefficient, archaic post soviet methods...dont forget, just 2 decades ago it was one economic organism !
the way, i saw it - and still do - vlad and yanukovich asked for a breezing space or, and this is very important,for a sufficient economic compensation in case the rate of integration was determined in Brussels. it is easy to recall what they got for an answer. yanukovich was promised 500 mln (compare this to 17 bln post putsch) and vlad was told that the eu mechanism is not designed to handle a 3d party.
a less determined and more pliant politician would of course yield by now to the combined might of the west.
vlad is clearly made of a different cloth. thus i worry the worse is yet to come if germany fails to maintain political influence in europe over american geopolitical goals of containing russia in order to extend it's own domination.
it is just an opinion...
