World Politics

[ScienceIsCool]

Re:

It's funny isn't it. As soon as there is something like this involving spies people start acting like Colombo.

It's pretty damn obvious who did it, especially when they actually tell you they will assassinate traitors.

Well, given it's so obvious I'm sure you can fill in the answers to the following hypothetical interview based on what's been reported so far:

Q1: How was it determined that the Skripal's were infected with a Novichok agent and which variant is it?
Q2: Who performed this analysis and how did they determine the origin of the chemicals?
Q3: How was the nerve agent administered, and why have so few people fallen ill - especially considering that it's many times more powerful than VX?
Q4: How difficult is it to synthesize Novichok, and who has the capabilities?
Q5: A Russian defector, Mirzayanov, has published the chemical structure for Novichok in a book so the formula is widely known. What would prevent someone from producing this nerve agent?
Q6: There have been a vast number of Russian defectors. Why was Kripal targeted and not someone like Mirzayanov?

I could go on, but these are super basic journalistic questions. All we get is some political waffle and straight to the escalations and confrontations.

John Swanson

 

[Tonton]

Wow!!! Unlike some threads here, there's a discussion, not links. people with brains vs. using other people's brains. That's good, so we can really talk about topics and not get...

"Guns don't kill people. People kill people"". People with sticks don't kill people, or at least not by the dozen.

Since Ukraine and the dying dude, there is no denying that Putin (KGB) will poison or kill anyone in his way. For those who disagree, are you real or part of this?

American forces were attacked and kicked the Russian ass in Syria. Trump is silent. For America to be "Great Again", we have to beat them up...we did. Trump is silent on this: an attack on US.

 

[Merckx index]

Q1: How was it determined that the Skripal's were infected with a Novichok agent and which variant is it?

Q2: Who performed this analysis and how did they determine the origin of the chemicals?

The symptoms of the Skripals would certainly suggest the possibility of a nerve agent, and that could be pretty much confirmed by testing for AChE in blood samples. AFAIK, it hasn't been reported who performed the analysis, but the how is not a secret. Our old friend mass spec on AChE: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28892361.

Q3: How was the nerve agent administered, and why have so few people fallen ill - especially considering that it's many times more powerful than VX?

As I said before, my guess is as a powder. Don’t overestimate the danger to others. Kim’s brother was assassinated in a freaking airport, interacted with people before he died, and still it seems no one else was affected. The Skripals were in an open space when they fell unconscious. They were in a restaurant before, but we don’t know how much close contact they had with others. Some people may very well have been exposed, but not to enough substance to experience acute effects. A certain fraction of AChE molecules have to be bound before the latter occur.

Q4: How difficult is it to synthesize Novichok, and who has the capabilities?

Probably not that difficult. Actors outside of Russia certainly could synthesize one of its forms.

Q5: A Russian defector, Mirzayanov, has published the chemical structure for Novichok in a book so the formula is widely known. What would prevent someone from producing this nerve agent?

See answer to Q4. Anyone with the resources probably could do it.

Q6: There have been a vast number of Russian defectors. Why was Kripal targeted and not someone like Mirzayanov?

I don’t think this question is really relevant to the question of who did this. You could just as well ask why anyone wanting to make this look like a Russian operation would target Skripal.

I could go on, but these are super basic journalistic questions. All we get is some political waffle and straight to the escalations and confrontations.

The media are reporting what they know, e.g., they have not been shy in pointing out that Novichok could be synthesized outside of Russia. I do wish there were more questions about why the apparent delay in the effects of the agent. Tracing the whereabouts of the Skripals prior to when they were found would certainly provide important clues as to when, where and how they were exposed to the agent. Since we're engaging in wild speculation, though, I'll point out it's possible the agent was administered to the Skripals when they were on the bench, and later planted in the restaurant. Why would the killer do that? I'm sure some people here can come up with reasons. Maybe there was even a botched attempt in the restaurant.

 

[aphronesis]

Wow!!! Unlike some threads here, there's a discussion, not links. people with brains vs. using other people's brains. That's good, so we can really talk about topics and not get...

"Guns don't kill people. People kill people"". People with sticks don't kill people, or at least not by the dozen.

Since Ukraine and the dying dude, there is no denying that Putin (KGB) will poison or kill anyone in his way. For those who disagree, are you real or part of this?

American forces were attacked and kicked the Russian *** in Syria. Trump is silent. For America to be "Great Again", we have to beat them up...we did. Trump is silent on this: an attack on US.

Yeah, the discussion really took flight over the course of the day; loads of facts now to hand.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I have some sympathy with Bullsfan22's post in so far as the red under the bed narrative is one some of us grew up with, but this time I think the Russians really did do it.

I think they want us to know they did it too. Just waiting to see what the hard calculation was.

Yes Putin is rubbing their nose in it. Russia has previous form with this sort of thing, the chemical was only produced in one Russian factory as even they admitted. A Russian election is happening so the anti West rhetoric can be ramped up. Putin is ex KGB and probably doesn't like turncoats very much. Sometimes the answer is the obvious one. Putin's poker face wasn't convincing in the nineties let alone now but the smirk is never faraway......only Putin would even think of something like this and if things get tougher for the London oligarchs he will be smirking about that as well. Every denial Putin has made recently about such things as systemic doping in Russian sports, Russia involved in the US elections and so on has proved to be wrong. About the only thing he was right about it seems was US involvement in Ukraine. And the New Cold War politics would be lapped up by Putin as he always looks so dreamy and sentimental when talking about the USSR. The breakdown of the USSR was one of the biggest tragedies on the 20the century according to Putin.

 

[aphronesis]

Hey now

"Put simply, it's a trade-off: The state disenfranchises its citizens, but in exchange, they are given a feeling of stability and reclaimed national pride. Don't get in the way, says the Kremlin, give us a free hand and we will protect you from economic need and ensure that you are respected in a hostile world.

Stability and national greatness: Those are the promises made by Putin's Russia. Deception and violence are its tools. "

Obama and Trump should (have gotten) get on this

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-vladimir-putin-system-russia-and-its-eternal-president-a-1197076.html

Fair warning, laptops receive the follwing

"Warum sehe ich SPIEGEL ONLINE nicht mehr?
Vermutlich haben Sie einen Adblocker aktiviert.

Sie haben gar keinen Adblocker oder bereits eine Ausnahme hinzugefügt?

Bitte prüfen Sie, ob Sie ähnliche Erweiterungen, Do-not-Track-Funktionen oder den Inkognito-Modus aktiviert haben, die ebenfalls Werbung unterdrücken. Hier finden Sie mehr Informationen.

Welche Bedeutung Werbung für SPIEGEL ONLINE hat, was wir für Ihre Sicherheit im Netz tun, wie unsere Redaktion arbeitet – Fragen und Antworten finden Sie hier."

Phones are clear.

I believe over the years adults on this forum have made any number of reasoned arguments as to why guns should be confiscated, registered, lockboxed, banned. The refrain is the fallback on the rural/tribal/ahistorical Constitution defense. Or the "I'm a trained, responsible professional" variety. Hey, I'm an excellent driver. If motor vehicles were de-escalated mostly out of the private sphere tomorrow, it wouldn't bother me in the least. Provided the state trained some competent operators for those that remained.

 

[macbindle]

Re: Re:

It's funny isn't it. As soon as there is something like this involving spies people start acting like Colombo.

It's pretty damn obvious who did it, especially when they actually tell you they will assassinate traitors.

Well, given it's so obvious I'm sure you can fill in the answers to the following hypothetical interview based on what's been reported so far:

Q1: How was it determined that the Skripal's were infected with a Novichok agent and which variant is it?
Q2: Who performed this analysis and how did they determine the origin of the chemicals?
Q3: How was the nerve agent administered, and why have so few people fallen ill - especially considering that it's many times more powerful than VX?
Q4: How difficult is it to synthesize Novichok, and who has the capabilities?
Q5: A Russian defector, Mirzayanov, has published the chemical structure for Novichok in a book so the formula is widely known. What would prevent someone from producing this nerve agent?
Q6: There have been a vast number of Russian defectors. Why was Kripal targeted and not someone like Mirzayanov?

I could go on, but these are super basic journalistic questions. All we get is some political waffle and straight to the escalations and confrontations.

John Swanson

Some of the answers to your questions have already been reported. Perhaps you should widen the scope of your sources of information

I'm 45 miles from the site of the attack. A mere 7 miles from there is the site of the UKs Chemical weapons research centre. They really didn't have to travel far to look onto it. Why weren't more people affected? Again, you've clearly missed the hundreds of military personel shutting off affected parts of the city.

If science is so cool perhaps you should try applying some

 

[Merckx index]

If the Russians didn’t do it, there seem to be only two other possibilities:

1) the British did it; or
2) some third party did it, with the aim presumably of fomenting strife between these two nations

I’m really not seeing why or how Britain did it. Wrt why, do they really want to start trouble with Putin? May has put herself in a really awkward place, throwing out an ultimatum to Russia, then being forced to take action when they predictably denied any involvement. As for how, as I pointed out upthread, doing this in a way that potentially endangers British citizens is not what you’d expect the government to do, when there are other ways that minimize the threat to innocent bystanders (e.g., tea laced with polonium).

So what about some third party, another state actor or rogue element? Could they synthesize or obtain Novichok? Probably, yes—though it would be easier to obtain some other nerve agent. Could they get it into Britain? Again, probably. Could they apply it to the Skripals and get away without being seen? Plausibly, yes.

So maybe it was a third party? The problem I have with this is if people on the internet are suggesting this, then for sure MI6 is aware of the possibility. Given that they don’t want trouble with Russia, if they had solid evidence that it was someone other than Russia, surely they would either announce this, or simply clam up and not accuse anyone. Really, given all the trouble this is causing, if there were any reasonable doubts about whether Russia did this, I would think the government would not be committing itself to any explanation.

 

[Robert5091]

N.Koreas Foreign Minister in Stockholm today for two days of talks, shopping, sight seeing etc.
https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/nordkoreas-utrikesminister-landar-i-stockholm-i-dag/

 

[Robert5091]

Putin himself said once that foreign policy is domestic policy - Sunday 18 March 2018, The 2018 Russian presidential election.

 

[Bustedknuckle]

Re: Re:

Eh? There are motives for both sides.

The UK may have staged the event in order to justify expelling 20 or so known spies...ahem...diplomats. Unlikely, as I said in my previous post.

The Russians may have carried out the attack in order to send a message. It might be a message to their own security service staff that if they betray Russia, the state will kill their entire family. Why might they do this? Perhaps the British have been turning other Russian agents into double-agents. Much more likely.

There is constant military tension between western European countries and Russia. Naturally this reflects in all aspects of the defence system.

That doesn't fit for a few reasons. First, if they were going to make an example of Skripal it would've been when he was first arrested. Did they? Nope. He got an 18 year sentence and received a full pardon before the spy swap he was part of. Second, my understanding is that there is a very long tradition by the east and west to NOT go after defected spies. It's just part of the game.

Also, the UK doesn't need such a roundabout, murderous scheme to eject any diplomats it deems to be spies. They can simply give notice to the ambassador that the following people will be arrested for espionage if they don't leave the country within the next month.

And military tension with Russia... That's a fairly recent phenomena that was non-existent shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Did you hear that the Ukraine now has a MAP and is on its way to becoming a full fledged NATO member? That's hardly the Russians who are being aggressive.

Again, I'd say start with at the end and work backwards. So start with a list of who might want a confrontation between the UK and Russia and start eliminating the suspects. None of this is in Russia's interests so I think we can safely rule them out.

John Swanson

BUT in putin's interest. Vlad has said many times the one thing he detests is betrayal.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Right, and have they found any 'evidence' linking the Russians to the DNC leaks or the election? I am still waiting...

Well, there was that whole indictment thingy. Plenty of evidence in there if you are willing to look. And someone with your self-described 'neutral' view of Russia should find no trouble admitting that there was meddling. I'll wait.....

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/16/17020774/robert-mueller-russia-troll-internet-research-agency-election-interference

The DNC part of it is still being investigated by the special counsel.

 

[macbindle]

UK Foreign Secretary has confirmed the UK would provide samples of the nerve agent used in the attack to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Macron asked that UK not indulge in "fantasy politics"....was then shown evidence of Russian involvement and has come out unequivocally in support of UK, as has Germany, and US.

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Right, and have they found any 'evidence' linking the Russians to the DNC leaks or the election? I am still waiting...

Well, there was that whole indictment thingy. Plenty of evidence in there if you are willing to look. And someone with your self-described 'neutral' view of Russia should find no trouble admitting that there was meddling. I'll wait.....

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/16/17020774/robert-mueller-russia-troll-internet-research-agency-election-interference

The DNC part of it is still being investigated by the special counsel.

That was a commercial click-bait farm with no ties to any government agency... It was a convenient piece of theater considering the indicted are all Russian nobodies working for minimum wage trying to generate trending articles for puppy photos, Clinton, Trump, and Black Lives Matter. They will never be extradited or arrested, which means that these 13 woeful indictments will never have to be tested in court.

Note also, that NONE of it has anything to do with the leaked DNC info that several people directly have involved have confirmed it was an insider leak and have hinted very heavily that it was Seth Rich, And way above all that is the notion that learning the truth about a political party and its machinations is a bad thing. A criminal thing. That used to be what journalism was all about!

John Swanson

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Re:

UK Foreign Secretary has confirmed the UK would provide samples of the nerve agent used in the attack to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Macron asked that UK not indulge in "fantasy politics"....was then shown evidence of Russian involvement and has come out unequivocally in support of UK, as has Germany, and US.

Well then why not share the evidence with everyone including Russia!? That might be a bit more compelling...

John Swanson

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Re: Re:

BUT in putin's interest. Vlad has said many times the one thing he detests is betrayal.

I think this is one of those cases where you have to separate the person from the nation. Putin is willing to endure some humiliation in order to put Russia first and advance its goals. Take the recent wholesale killing of Russian mercs in Syria. Basically no response. Compare that to a few Blackwater mercs hanging from a bridge. All of Fallujah got flattened over that one. Now just imagine what President Carrot would do!! Back on topic, I just don't think Putin would run the calculus and then decide to whack a traitor a decade later using the most ridiculous method possible.

John Swanson

 

[macbindle]

Re: Re:

UK Foreign Secretary has confirmed the UK would provide samples of the nerve agent used in the attack to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Macron asked that UK not indulge in "fantasy politics"....was then shown evidence of Russian involvement and has come out unequivocally in support of UK, as has Germany, and US.

Well then why not share the evidence with everyone including Russia!? That might be a bit more compelling...

John Swanson

I'm surprised you ask. In prior discussion you showed awareness of the nature and value of intelligence. Besides, what makes you think the UK government is interested in convincing you?

 

[macbindle]

Re: Re:

[quote="
do!! Back on topic, I just don't think Putin would run the calculus and then decide to whack a traitor a decade later using the most ridiculous method possible.

John Swanson

[/quote]

Again, you are failing to understand that it might be an act of desperation if there have been British espionage successes.

Nor can you see the more likely explanation that Putin wants to create a narrative of a Russia under attack in order to scare people into supporting him. It's hardly an unknown phenomenon.

Yes, I know he's likely to win the election, but the turnout is pretty meagre.

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Re: Re:

[quote="
do!! Back on topic, I just don't think Putin would run the calculus and then decide to whack a traitor a decade later using the most ridiculous method possible.

John Swanson

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2234481#p2234481

Again, you are failing to understand that it might be an act of desperation.[/quote]

Desperate for what, exactly? Putin's approval rating has been 80+ % for years. So it's not an election maneuver. The spy was pardoned and sent to the UK long, long ago so there's no urgency there. It's not like Russia is in the midst of a wave of whistleblower scandals, so there's no need to send a message to traitors. The economy is improving and Putin recently spent nearly 40 minutes talking about the successes, failures, and challenges yet to come. Deployment of new strategic weapons has reinforced the notion of MAD and Russia's willingness for self-defense. What desperation???

John Swanson

 

[aphronesis]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/dubious-polls-media-vladimir-putin-election-popularity-propaganda

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Re:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/dubious-polls-media-vladimir-putin-election-popularity-propaganda

American pollster, Gallup. Trust them? Are they dubious? No? Okay. https://www.rbth.com/news/2017/03/29/gallup-putins-popularity-in-russia-unfaltering_729738

John Swanson

 

[macbindle]

Re: Re:

[quote="
do!! Back on topic, I just don't think Putin would run the calculus and then decide to whack a traitor a decade later using the most ridiculous method possible.

John Swanson

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2234481#p2234481

Again, you are failing to understand that it might be an act of desperation.

Desperate for what, exactly? Putin's approval rating has been 80+ % for years. So it's not an election maneuver. The spy was pardoned and sent to the UK long, long ago so there's no urgency there. It's not like Russia is in the midst of a wave of whistleblower scandals, so there's no need to send a message to traitors. The economy is improving and Putin recently spent nearly 40 minutes talking about the successes, failures, and challenges yet to come. Deployment of new strategic weapons has reinforced the notion of MAD and Russia's willingness for self-defense. What desperation???

John Swanson[/quote]

You've decontextualised the word. 'desperate. I said desperate in the context of possible UK espionage successes necessitating an attempt to terrorise would-be turncoats. In that context, Skripal is ideal.

I've just read that Russia is now saying it didn't develop the nerve agent used. The UK hasn't supplied Russia with a sample so I'm at a loss to understand how it could know.

 

[aphronesis]

Re: Re:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/08/dubious-polls-media-vladimir-putin-election-popularity-propaganda

American pollster, Gallup. Trust them? Are they dubious? No? Okay. https://www.rbth.com/news/2017/03/29/gallup-putins-popularity-in-russia-unfaltering_729738

John Swanson

Are you asking a question? Are you asking if people believe Gallup? Are you (apparently) of the belief that things just happen in a vacuum? Or that one should only question life at the level of statecraft and leadership?

The fact that foreign pollsters come to similar numbers isn’t really the issue. It’s honestly baffling why anyone would keep arguing with things they don’t read. That’s probably a step below reading arguments one doesn’t grasp and then arguing with the one factual area one has knowledge of. Someone else did that recently in another thread.

 

[djpbaltimore]

That was a commercial click-bait farm with no ties to any government agency... It was a convenient piece of theater considering the indicted are all Russian nobodies working for minimum wage trying to generate trending articles for puppy photos, Clinton, Trump, and Black Lives Matter. They will never be extradited or arrested, which means that these 13 woeful indictments will never have to be tested in court.

Note also, that NONE of it has anything to do with the leaked DNC info that several people directly have involved have confirmed it was an insider leak and have hinted very heavily that it was Seth Rich, And way above all that is the notion that learning the truth about a political party and its machinations is a bad thing. A criminal thing. That used to be what journalism was all about!

John Swanson

And yet it consistently followed in lock step the party line of the Russian gov't. And Prigozhin was a close associate of Putin. Weird coincidence.... I guess......

Mindiyarov said he took a job at the troll factory in late 2014 because he was unemployed and curious. At the time, about 400 people occupied four floors of an office building and worked 12-hour shifts, he said. Most of the operation focused on the separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia, not political races in the West, he said.....“The world in those comments was divided into black and white: America was bad, Putin was good,” he said. “They praised whatever had to do with Putin and criticized anything related to America, ‘gay’ Europe, and so on. That was the principle of the work.”

http://time.com/5165805/russian-troll-factory-mueller-indictments/

As for the second part, that is not strictly true. Do you suppose that those pilfered DNC materials played no part in the disinformation campaign by those workers? It was a key part of the grift. The fuel to light the fire.

Thirdly, the Seth Rich story is unworthy of discussion. If people had any actual proof of his involvement, it would've been released. HIs parents are suing Fox for giving these allegations air time.

 

[macbindle]

As UK expels senior Russian agents, the White House follows suit: