Worlds Copenhagen 2011

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think I will double post (from Thor-thread) a comparison between Geelong and Copenhagen finishes because I think it will be an interesting talking point:



"No, my argument was that a 5% climb leading up to a sprint and a sprint with 5% grade is two different things.

Consider the 2010 UCI world's profile as seen on Podium Café

So the gradient from 15.1km to 15.8km is roughly 20m/700m = 2.86%

For 2011 Worlds from official site:

Roughly about 20-25m in a bit less than 500m so close to 5%.

So my points are
1) Hushovd didn't win 2010 worlds because he is a excellent sprinter if the gradient is 5%. He won because 1a) Better sprinters were out of contention because of the 800 meter, 12% hill on the course 1b) Because he was a better sprinter than the remaining riders on a very easy (2.9%, 700m) uphill sprint.

2) Where and when did Hushovd win a uphill sprint in 5% (let's say 4-6% gradient)? Has he ever done so? Can you provide some proof of this? What arguments are there that the Copenhagen course will shed the better sprinters in the same way that the Geelong-climb did?

I feel a lot of classic's riders can win in Copenhagen - Freire, Cancellara, Gilbert as well as the sprinters. Hushovd is there but I would say there are hotter candidates."

not entirely true, the finish didn't ramp up until the last 200m(I was at the end on the womans race), I'd say the last 100-150m were close to 4-5%. It was a pretty decent kick to the end actually. Certainly the riders felt it at the end. Good finish for hushovd.

There was a finish in the tour a few years ago, i don't remember the gradient where he won.

As for gilbert and this year, I'm not sure the gradient will be enough to drop the other strong fast guys, we will see but.
I'm not sure I agree this suits valverde, again not steep enough to gap the other fast guys.

on a whole, I think this course appears a little easier. No real steep bits. If one of the sprinter teams can control the race and tempo ride it should be a mass sprint.

I can't pick a winner at this point.
Goss is a chance maybe.

 

[meandmygitane]

not entirely true, the finish didn't ramp up until the last 200m(I was at the end on the womans race), I'd say the last 100-150m were close to 4-5%. It was a pretty decent kick to the end actually. Certainly the riders felt it at the end. Good finish for hushovd.

There was a finish in the tour a few years ago, i don't remember the gradient where he won.

As for gilbert and this year, I'm not sure the gradient will be enough to drop the other strong fast guys, we will see but.
I'm not sure I agree this suits valverde, again not steep enough to gap the other fast guys.

on a whole, I think this course appears a little easier. No real steep bits. If one of the sprinter teams can control the race and tempo ride it should be a mass sprint.

I can't pick a winner at this point.
Goss is a chance maybe.

I tried to analyze that to the best of my abilities but according to the course profile (which of course is subject to uncertainties) the last 200 meters was steeper but still under 4% - 700 meters of 5% gives Gilbert the chance of sprinting all the way too the line instead of going kilometres and kilometres before the start.


See the "Thor is not happy..."-thread for a couple of supposed sprints with 5% climb - they have so far been proven that they were 2-3%.

Maybe you think of the stage where there was a bump of 6.6% over 500 meter BEFORE the flamme rouge?

Copenhagen's finish is a different caliber than Geelong: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeE5aWZY8pE&t=13m47s
The last kilometre. roughly, you can see the finish climb on the hill in front and it looks pretty darn steep!
I've read a dane saying that it is actually 6% for 500meters..

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Profiles can be misleading, for certain the last 200m was much tougher then the previous 500m.

As for thor, I am not sure what the gradients were to be honest, just barely remember an uphi;l sprint where cav really failed. so if it were 2-3% I can't argue

I just think if there are enough riders there at the end, and some sort of organization is apparent at the end gilbert will have little to no hope. A train can power up the first couple hundred meters leading out big men, and not allowing anyone to get away early.

The end might be harder, but the course on a whole is certainly not, and a big organized group will eliminate the slightly better finish. Last year finish was great because the group was small and we saw plenty of attacks.

I personally hope we see some chaos before the last 500m tho, with dozens of little brave attacks, causing confusion. Hopefully they really ride this hard, a team like belgium will want a bit of chaos should help both gilbert and boonen.

 

[M Sport]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeE5aWZY8pE&t=13m47s
The last kilometre. roughly, you can see the finish climb on the hill in front and it looks pretty darn steep!
I've read a dane saying that it is actually 6% for 500meters..

I think 4% at most, more like high 3's though. Has anyone seen a Garmin profile or mapped it in ride with GPS or similar? That will tell you the gradient.

The course is so easy though it's going to end with lot's of team's sprint trains heading into that rise at full pace with relatively fresh sprinters at the back. It's a lottery at this stage, it's one to start predicting half way through the Vuelta.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think 4% at most, more like high 3's though. Has anyone seen a Garmin profile or mapped it in ride with GPS or similar? That will tell you the gradient.

The course is so easy though it's going to end with lot's of team's sprint trains heading into that rise at full pace with relatively fresh sprinters at the back. It's a lottery at this stage, it's one to start predicting half way through the Vuelta.

this.

the course is too easy, this finish would be more selective in a small tired group.

 

[greenedge]

Could Gilbert win in a group of 30???? Uphill sprint?????. The race is determined by who crosses the line 1st. There is usually some recognition made about the strongest rider, but what is the point if he does not attack. Last yr Gilbert was and he got the accolades.Anyone can soft-pedal. Cav got dropped in that worlds is the reason why people are going off at him. But i am not going off at sprinters winning WC's. Besides if even 2 riders go to the end there is still a sprint.

Instead of arguing let's decide countries tht might be able to control the race. I would say favourites are Cav, Goss, Pozzato, Pettachi, Thor, Freire/ all sprinters. Therefore those teams have to control the race.

 

[NickBVK]

Obviously it's still early season yet but Goss has gotta be #1 for Australia provided he has no injuries. Much faster speed than Haussler, Davis, Renshaw etc who have all expressed their desire to be the leader.

Chuck Haussler or Davis in a break for sure just in case but Goss is the man.

 

[boomcie]

Obviously it's still early season yet but Goss has gotta be #1 for Australia provided he has no injuries. Much faster speed than Haussler, Davis, Renshaw etc who have all expressed their desire to be the leader.

Chuck Haussler or Davis in a break for sure just in case but Goss is the man.

When Haussler is in top shape I think he can take Goss. He's wicked fast.

 

[Ferminal]

Haussler isn't consistent enough.

But that shouldn't mean both don't go.

The ideal situation is Renshaw leading out Goss for the main sprint, whilst having Haussler on Goss' wheel. Alternatively Haussler could go for an "M-SR 2009" leaving Renshaw and Goss to do their thing. Realistically though Renshaw will not make the finish, so you would have Haussler leading out Goss.

If they don't take Renshaw, Sutton or Davis may be contenders to lead out.

Team:

Goss
Haussler
Renshaw/Sutton/Davis
Evans
O'Grady
Hayman
The final 3 spots could be given to any number of workers (Sulzberger, Rogers, Clarke, Meyer, Cooke, Roberts, Wurf etc)

 

[Cimber]

Would be nice to see more of Copenhagen. It seems mostly parkland & housing estates.

You need to go for the ITT to see Copenhagen, as it will take place in the center of Copenhagen. Except from the start of the road race you will not see Copenhagen. The actual circuits will take place north of Copenhagen in a suburban area.

 

[Tuarts]

Australia has a ridiculously long line of talent who can sprint so there's no shortage there. Add a couple of the TT/Track guys and they can have a 9 man HTC train happening. Why would they take Evans to this?

 

[boomcie]

Australia has a ridiculously long line of talent who can sprint so there's no shortage there. Add a couple of the TT/Track guys and they can have a 9 man HTC train happening. Why would they take Evans to this?

For reeling in the early break?

 

[Jamsque]

Australia has a ridiculously long line of talent who can sprint so there's no shortage there. Add a couple of the TT/Track guys and they can have a 9 man HTC train happening. Why would they take Evans to this?

Why would they NOT take Evans? Worlds isn't just about taking the right guys for the finale, you need a squad with experience and endurance. Cuddles has both of those in abundance. No, he won't beat the likes of Haussler or Goss in a straight sprint, but he will be in the front group no matter how hard the course is raced and he will be relatively fresh after 250km.

Unless he ends his season after the Tour de France I think Australia would be crazy not to take him.

 

[Ferminal]

Covering attacks at the end of the race, being an option if the race is surprisingly hard or the sprinters fall into trouble. Even if the course is dead flat I think it would be wise to take your strongest man over 250km. And stronger he is... by a fair margin (Goss and Haussler are probably next strongest and will be in the squad anyway).

 

[Cimber]

I don't mind optimism, and especially from a national coach, but I think a certain guy from Isle of mann would beg to differ.

Its an uphill finish and after seeing Petacchi's win in Turkey on a much tougher climp it could very well be Petacchi who take it.

World champs should never be flat without any difficulties.

At least make a flat race along a coast or something then to make it extra windy. Or try to include small twisty roads in the race.

Flat races without any difficulties are useless. And people who can only win on courses like that don't deserve to be a world champion.

One difficulty that is always there: the length. Also this year does finish uphill so it wont be just your average tour de france 1st week sprinter stage

the course is too easy, this finish would be more selective in a small tired group.

After 250+ km the peloton will be tired.

Copen-where????? They should be thankfull that cycling will show up!! .

Hehe then consider that Herning (small town) gets the Giro-start next year (0;

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Could Gilbert win in a group of 30???? Uphill sprint?????. The race is determined by who crosses the line 1st. There is usually some recognition made about the strongest rider, but what is the point if he does not attack. Last yr Gilbert was and he got the accolades.Anyone can soft-pedal. Cav got dropped in that worlds is the reason why people are going off at him. But i am not going off at sprinters winning WC's. Besides if even 2 riders go to the end there is still a sprint.

Instead of arguing let's decide countries tht might be able to control the race. I would say favourites are Cav, Goss, Pozzato, Pettachi, Thor, Freire/ all sprinters. Therefore those teams have to control the race.

arguing? What is the point of a forum if we cant discuss something like, how we think a race might unfold.

also a 2man sprint, a 30 min sprint and a mass sprint differ so greatly.

anyway
I agree with boomcie. I like haussler on a finish like this also. haussler is too good to make goss's puppet, let them both go for it.

@ferminal; I'm not sure that this course is hard enough to get rid of renshaw. He should be up there at the end. If he is useful or not is another story.

 

[meandmygitane]

I think 4% at most, more like high 3's though. Has anyone seen a Garmin profile or mapped it in ride with GPS or similar? That will tell you the gradient.

The course is so easy though it's going to end with lot's of team's sprint trains heading into that rise at full pace with relatively fresh sprinters at the back. It's a lottery at this stage, it's one to start predicting half way through the Vuelta.

You have to take into account that from the left-hand turn it's already uphill, and then you see the hill in the background.

I can say this, I don't trust what people "think" the gradient is, just by looking at a photo or seeing a video.

Consider Worlds 2010: This is what people claim to be upwards to 5%:
From the finish looking back in Google streetviewFrom the side in the steepest part
From the absolute bottom

How steep would you say it is judging from the first picture, the second, the third respectively? You just can't guess from the pictures.

My whole point was that sprinters and classic's specialists could win it and it favors a broader spectrum of rider types than last year.

My guess is that Cavendish won't since he got +9s on that 2010 Vuelta-finish, Farrar matched Gilbert but still couldnt sprint ahead of him in false flat..

 

[meandmygitane]

Could Gilbert win in a group of 30???? Uphill sprint?????. The race is determined by who crosses the line 1st.

Yes. Yes. And Yes.

To repeat: Yes! Yes! And of course!
Please watch the sprint in Vuelta 2010 stage 19.

 

[taiwan]

I'm liking Goss. If the finish is too flat to advantage Gilbert, he's the man. See his Giro stage last year or the GP Plouay.

 

[just some guy]

the other thing will Cav have a full team to back him up.

 

[maltiv]

the other thing will Cav have a full team to back him up.

Perhaps, but mostly because of Ben Swift. They still need more points though, so Cav has to start doing something soon.

By the way, if Norway is qualified with 3 riders, do we then get 3+1, because Thor is defending champion, or do we only get 3 riders?

 

[Jamsque]

I don't think Cav's team will matter, the finish looks much too hard for him.

 

[Fus087]

Well, as I live in Copenhagen and have ridden the course several times, I'll put in my 2 cents.

http://www.climbs.dk lists Geels Bakke as 575 m at 3,7%.
From my experience, it certainly isn't near the 5% some have been throwing out there.

The profile once again:

The hardest "climb" will be Søllerød Slotsbakke (from 2,7 km to 3,2 km). 6% according to http://www.climbs.dk, and with two turns on the uphill, so you can't see the top of the hill from the bottom.
The uphill at 5,1-5,7 km is not particularly steep, but mean (in my opinion, but compared to any pro I suck bigtime).
The long downhill from 5,7 km to 7,5 km isn't one straight downhill, there's a short bridge over the highway in the start - but even I can speed over that in a big gear without problems. Otherwise, this is where the peloton will really get up to speed.
And speed is what it's about. There will certainly be attacks (it's the Worlds, for crying out loud), but the 6 km run-in to the final uphill are mostly on wide roads and not at all challenging (to a pro), so a determined peloton should be able to catch a break from a last-lap attack on Slotsbakken here.

The last turn will be at about 700-800 m to go, from there you can see the line. The gradient on the final 575 m is slightly lower in the start and rises a bit on the later part, and there is no real flat in the end - it may flatten out a bit, but the line is pretty much at the top of the hill.
Last year the final stage of the Tour of Denmark ended with 4 laps on the circuit, and a break made it, with Roulston taking the win. But they really only just made it, some of the escapees were caught by the sprinters.

The uphill finish is longer than you'd maybe think, a sprinter who goes too early could certainly "die" and be overtaken. To be honest I can't see a "pure" sprinter win this one - no Petacchi (and certainly no Guardini), and Cavendish isn't likely either.
In my opinion Freire, Hushovd (again) and the like are better guesses. Goss could certainly do it, Boonen too. The finish is great for Breschel, but I'm skeptic whether his form will get good enough after his knee problems.
Gilbert won't be an option in the sprint at least, it's too flat for him.

To prevent a mass sprint, you'd have to have some guys with a decent time trial get a gap on the last lap(s), and they'd have to work together to extend their gap from Slotsbakken to the second highway bridge (at 9,4 km). An obvious candidate would of course be Cancellara; but especially Cancellara I can also imagine get a jump at the roundabout at ~2 km to go and stay away.

 

[Kvinto]

I don't think Cav's team will matter, the finish looks much too hard for him.

Finish isn't too hard for him, but the route will definitely be too hard because there will be more than 1 lap with more than 1 ascent. For the most of sprinters those ascents are easy but Cav can get dropped even if its very easy climb. But, theoretically, if he'll be in the first group on the finish he can win. As I understand the final accent is 500m(5%), but he won this:

it's Stage 11 of Tour de France 2009 and it's 500m, (199-169)/500=0.06=6%.
Again, it's not a proof that he can win WC2011, but only that he can win on such a finish profile.

 

[El Pistolero]

You guys are overrating this finish. Philippe Gilbert already went there and said it wasn't a WC for him at all.