Worlds Copenhagen 2011

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Nov 30, 2010
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Fus087 said:
Well, as I live in Copenhagen and have ridden the course several times, I'll put in my 2 cents.

http://www.climbs.dk lists Geels Bakke as 575 m at 3,7%.
From my experience, it certainly isn't near the 5% some have been throwing out there.

According to google earth, and I don't know how reliable their elevation figures are, the steep part of the climb is 400m long at an average of a bit under 6%. My guess is that for an in-form pro sprinter, it's not long enough or steep enough to be a big factor.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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Fus087 said:
Well, as I live in Copenhagen and have ridden the course several times, I'll put in my 2 cents.

http://www.climbs.dk lists Geels Bakke as 575 m at 3,7%.
From my experience, it certainly isn't near the 5% some have been throwing out there.

The profile once again:


The hardest "climb" will be Søllerød Slotsbakke (from 2,7 km to 3,2 km). 6% according to http://www.climbs.dk, and with two turns on the uphill, so you can't see the top of the hill from the bottom.
The uphill at 5,1-5,7 km is not particularly steep, but mean (in my opinion, but compared to any pro I suck bigtime).
The long downhill from 5,7 km to 7,5 km isn't one straight downhill, there's a short bridge over the highway in the start - but even I can speed over that in a big gear without problems. Otherwise, this is where the peloton will really get up to speed.
And speed is what it's about. There will certainly be attacks (it's the Worlds, for crying out loud), but the 6 km run-in to the final uphill are mostly on wide roads and not at all challenging (to a pro), so a determined peloton should be able to catch a break from a last-lap attack on Slotsbakken here.

The last turn will be at about 700-800 m to go, from there you can see the line. The gradient on the final 575 m is slightly lower in the start and rises a bit on the later part, and there is no real flat in the end - it may flatten out a bit, but the line is pretty much at the top of the hill.
Last year the final stage of the Tour of Denmark ended with 4 laps on the circuit, and a break made it, with Roulston taking the win. But they really only just made it, some of the escapees were caught by the sprinters.

The uphill finish is longer than you'd maybe think, a sprinter who goes too early could certainly "die" and be overtaken. To be honest I can't see a "pure" sprinter win this one - no Petacchi (and certainly no Guardini), and Cavendish isn't likely either.
In my opinion Freire, Hushovd (again) and the like are better guesses. Goss could certainly do it, Boonen too. The finish is great for Breschel, but I'm skeptic whether his form will get good enough after his knee problems.
Gilbert won't be an option in the sprint at least, it's too flat for him.

To prevent a mass sprint, you'd have to have some guys with a decent time trial get a gap on the last lap(s), and they'd have to work together to extend their gap from Slotsbakken to the second highway bridge (at 9,4 km). An obvious candidate would of course be Cancellara; but especially Cancellara I can also imagine get a jump at the roundabout at ~2 km to go and stay away.

Thanks for your input, I don't feel that I have "thrown" anything out there, I have calculated grades using the best available information I had.

It would seem that the profile on the offical pages are not exactly trustworthy...

Using kms.dk and using the altitude+coordinates I get 4,3% for the last 400m (exact 394m, 16,9m altitude gain, from where the picture is taken from your site ).

From Hjortholmsvej it is 500m and alt. gain of 20,6m = 4,0%


Still feel that a rider like Gilbert might jump the field, but obviously it doesn't look as great as the official profile.

Maybe I'm totally wrong.


I might add that it's strange that the course isn't ridden the opposite way, the hill seems steeper that way around...
 
Jul 2, 2009
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meandmygitane said:
2) Where and when did Hushovd win a uphill sprint in 5% (let's say 4-6% gradient)? Has he ever done so? Can you provide some proof of this?

Stage 6 of the 2009 Tour de France in Barcelona.
 
Nov 30, 2010
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Captain_Cavman said:
According to google earth, and I don't know how reliable their elevation figures are, the steep part of the climb is 400m long at an average of a bit under 6%. My guess is that for an in-form pro sprinter, it's not long enough or steep enough to be a big factor.

Measuring all over again, I've now got 324m at an average of 7%. This is trickier than I thought.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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Kvinto said:
Finish isn't too hard for him, but the route will definitely be too hard because there will be more than 1 lap with more than 1 ascent. For the most of sprinters those ascents are easy but Cav can get dropped even if its very easy climb. But, theoretically, if he'll be in the first group on the finish he can win. As I understand the final accent is 500m(5%), but he won this:
PROFILKMS.gif


it's Stage 11 of Tour de France 2009 and it's 500m, (199-169)/500=0.06=6%.
Again, it's not a proof that he can win WC2011, but only that he can win on such a finish profile.

Here is a better one with the last 500meters: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z93g6usXsbQ&t=4m28s

Seems that the climb flattened off the last 200 meter?

Looks like the profile or the numbers are wrong for that picture btw, counting pixels it seems more likely 189m than 199m for the finish line, which would make it around 4% but of course it might be the profile that is wrong and not the numbers


On google streetview it looks rather tame the last 200m Look here the steep part seems to be before entering Place du maréchal de lattre de tassigny

Interesting that Thor Hushovd gets beaten on what is supposedly his favourite type of finish ("slaaaag oppoverbakke").
 
Jan 3, 2011
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El Pistolero said:
You guys are overrating this finish. Philippe Gilbert already went there and said it wasn't a WC for him at all.

Ye I dont think its tailormade for Gilbert. Its probably better for a guy like Boonen. Tbh I think its kinda tailormade for Boonen. He is used to do long races and he is a fast guy who can do shorter hills.

Its one of those finishes which can easily be overrated but just as easily underrated. I mean it might not be tough enough for Gilbert but it might very well be too tough for Cavendish. A lot of the riders who have done the circuit have been a little surprised saying that it is not as flat as they thought.

Its suited for guys like Freire, Boonen and Thor more than a pure sprinter like Cav.
 
Dec 27, 2010
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That video of the finish rules out Cav for me. There might be enough for Gilbert to work with.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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will10 said:
That video of the finish rules out Cav for me. There might be enough for Gilbert to work with.

Problem is the course on a whole aint tough enough.
There will be a biog group tacking this, I assume with trains, and the lead outs will destroy the chances of a guy like Gilbert. I suspect he knows this also.

hitchie piti?
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Gilbert doing lead out for Boonen may be smart. Gilbert certainly can break some legs if he starts leading out full pace with 500 meters to go.
 
Dec 27, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
Gilbert doing lead out for Boonen may be smart. Gilbert certainly can break some legs if he starts leading out full pace with 500 meters to go.

Yeah, including Boonen's.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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theyoungest said:
Freire is actually not that great on this type of finish.

Yeah. Vuelta a Pais Vasco 2010 - stage 2.

Last km is 40m altitude gain=4% (http://vueltapaisvasco.diariovasco.com/2010/etapas/etapa2-zierbana-viana.htm)

1. Valverde (who was ofc suspended)
2. Freire
3. Gavazzi +1s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvkHEwv2F18

I'd say he's got a chance.

More of that style of 'fing: Tirreno-Adriatico 2008, stage 6
T06_castelfidardo_ukm.jpg

Last km is 4,1% with 6,2% the last 500m.

1. Freire
2. Pozzato
3. Di Luca
Watch the last 2km in the link from steephill.tv from R A I, great cycling, attack by Cancellara.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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meandmygitane said:
Yeah. Vuelta a Pais Vasco 2010 - stage 2.

Last km is 40m altitude gain=4% (http://vueltapaisvasco.diariovasco.com/2010/etapas/etapa2-zierbana-viana.htm)

1. Valverde (who was ofc suspended)
2. Freire
3. Gavazzi +1s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvkHEwv2F18

I'd say he's got a chance.

More of that style of 'fing: Tirreno-Adriatico 2008, stage 6
T06_castelfidardo_ukm.jpg

Last km is 4,1% with 6,2% the last 500m.

1. Freire
2. Pozzato
3. Di Luca
Watch the last 2km in the link from steephill.tv from R A I, great cycling, attack by Cancellara.

Tirreno stage doesn't say that much. On a finish like that Gilbert would have powered away from the likes of Pozatto and take at least a second or 2 out of him.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
Tirreno stage doesn't say that much. On a finish like that Gilbert would have powered away from the likes of Pozatto and take at least a second or 2 out of him.

Wasn't the climb too easy for Gilbert at 4,3%?

But my point was that Freire can do well on many types of finishes - from flat to ~5-6%, so if there is a sprint he should be up there with the best. His 6th place in the >3% finish at last years world wasn't that great maybe..

If there is an attack from a reduced field I think Gilbert (yes, I'm still that naive), Cancellara could do it.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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meandmygitane said:
Wasn't the climb too easy for Gilbert at 4,3%?

But my point was that Freire can do well on many types of finishes - from flat to ~5-6%, so if there is a sprint he should be up there with the best. His 6th place in the >3% finish at last years world wasn't that great maybe..

If there is an attack from a reduced field I think Gilbert (yes, I'm still that naive), Cancellara could do it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vtU1Br4SRc

Most impressive sprint I've seen in a while.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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May 25, 2010
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*Major bump*

If things are at the end of August as they are now here are the country allocations:

1 TOP TEN UCI WORLDTOUR


SPAIN 9
ITALY 9
AUSTRALIA 9
BELGIUM 9
GERMANY 8
LUXEMBOURG 6
NETHERLANDS 9
USA 9
UK 6
FRANCE 9

2 AFRICA TOUR

MOROCCO 6
ERITREA 3

3 AMERICAS TOUR

COLOMBIA 6
VENEZUELA 6
BRAZIL 3
ARGENTINA 3
CHILE 3

4 ASIA TOUR

IRAN 6
JAPAN 3
KAZAKHSTAN 3

5 EUROPE TOUR

RUSSIA 6
SLOVENIA 6
POLAND 6
UKRAINE 6
TURKEY 6
LITHUANIA 3
DENMARK 3
PORTUGAL 3
CROATIA 3
AUSTRIA 3
ESTONIA 3
CZECH REPUBLIC 3
BELARUS 3
BULGARIA 3
SWEDEN 3
LATVIA 3

6 OCEANIA TOUR

NEW ZEALAND 3

7 WORLD TOUR - INDIVIDUAL

CANADA 3
SLOVAKIA 3
SWITZERLAND 3
IRELAND 3
NORWAY 3
***
COSTA RICA 1


8 CONTINENTAL TOURS - INDIVIDUALS

ALGERIA 1
***
URUGUAY 1
BOLIVIA 1
CUBA 1
***
SERBIA 1
HUNGARY 1
ROMANIA 1

PELOTON SIZE: 214
==================================================

Just a note, they are the riders they can ride with, most can nominate more riders (such as 14 into 9) beforehand. Pretty big peloton, not sure if there's a cap on it at all. Anyone want to check that all this is correct - nearly missed Norway, they just missed out on rule 1 and 5. :eek: