Worlds Warm-up: Who will win it

[Moondance]

EBH. The man has the form and while his record in in 200km+ classics is limited, he did finish 2nd and 1st in two consecutive Giro stages this year, both of which were well over 200km.

He might have to fight hard if the Italians start to pull hard for Cunego (or whoever) but if a small group (5-15ish or so) make it to the finish together, which is what I expect, EBH outsprints them all.

 

[Moondance]

I would like Henrich Hausler

He's going to have to work very hard in his living room to win it though.

 

[wheels55]

The climb before the finish is followed by a straight, quite open road, as far as I could tell from the video below. You need to have something left in the legs, if you want to stay away solo. The last climb however doesn't appear to constiute a watershed, from what I am seeing, it's not long and steep enough.

Mendrisio parcours

Thanks for that link - that was cool.

 

[flicker]

Haussler

I am sorry I forgot about the nationality ? of Haussler. It would be awesome to see him win though.
The winner will be ItI or Spain. Maybe Sammy Sanchez? Or it could be one of Cuegos decoys.

 

[Moondance]

I am sorry I forgot about the nationality ? of Haussler. It would be awesome to see him win though.
The winner will be ItI or Spain. Maybe Sammy Sanchez? Or it could be one of Cuegos decoys.

No, nothing about nationality. Germany simply didn't select him.

 

[flicker]

Sorry I thought that Haussler claims to be Aussie and Deutsland says no you are German thus 1 year of sitting out for H.
I would have loved to see Haussler race though, he really goes all out to win!

 

[Moondance]

Sorry I thought that Haussler claims to be Aussie and Deutsland says no you are German thus 1 year of sitting out for H.
I would have loved to see Haussler race though, he really goes all out to win!

The issue has nothing to do with what the Germans say or don't say, is where Haussler is licenced to ride with the UCI. All his pro career Haussler has ridden with a German licence, which means if he wants to ride in the Worlds, he can only do so for Germany.

Now I don't know how you go about changing your UCI licence, but I'm pretty sure Steffan Wesemann changed from Germany to Switzerland a couple years back, but he was a long-term resident of Switzerland, married to a Swiss woman and was a naturalized Swiss citizen. Either way, since it's probably a pretty big hassle, Haussler has already said he's sticking with Germany for now.

 

[thehog]

Difficult to predict- Last year, Ballan surprised everybody with that killing attack- so I'm not going to discount him at all. Cunego is on paper the favorite, but someone like Gerrans can spoil the victory-perhaps Samuel Sanchez or Kim kirchen-even the Schleck brothers can do a great battle, if the race situation is on their favor....

Only one Shleck riding. Frankie is in hossy having his dicky knee worked on.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

EBH. The man has the form and while his record in in 200km+ classics is limited, he did finish 2nd and 1st in two consecutive Giro stages this year, both of which were well over 200km.

He might have to fight hard if the Italians start to pull hard for Cunego (or whoever) but if a small group (5-15ish or so) make it to the finish together, which is what I expect, EBH outsprints them all.

I think Hagen will never be in that 5-15 man group sorry.

In the ENECO Tour hardest stage, which isn't even close to Mendrisio, he was in super form and...probably the weakest of the front group, as such was clear on the Doodeman/Cauberg. It was his team which brought him back and prevented worse. And that was against guys as Flecha, Posthuma, Van Avermaet...
I simply cannot see him survive. It's impossible and beyond any logic.

Only a weak race would help Hagen.

 

[Moondance]

I think Hagen will never be in that 5-15 man group sorry.

In the ENECO Tour hardest stage, which isn't even close to Mendrisio, he was in super form and...probably the weakest of the front group, as such was clear on the Doodeman/Cauberg. It was his team which brought him back and prevented worse. And that was against guys as Flecha, Posthuma, Van Avermaet...
I simply cannot see him survive. It's impossible and beyond any logic.

Only a weak race would help Hagen.

Never ever, or just not this year just quite yet?

 

[ridelikethewind]

I was about to post to let you know who is going to win but decided to keep it to myself and put some money on at the bookies - don't want to shorten the odds.

As a matter of interest has anyone who has posted put their money where there mouth is?

 

[blaxland]

I don't see Gerrans doing squat. There is a big difference winning stages in grand tours and winning one day races...a huge difference!! I don't even see him cracking the top 10. Is this just nutt hugging or do people really think he has a chance?

not sure what nutt hugging is but,gerrans performances this year top 10 finishes in liege and fleche will give him lots of confidence..I also think the aussies have a very strong team this year with more than one card to play.

 

[BeachBum]

Cunego main fave, Sanchez, Valverde, Schleck the Younger-- podium comes from those 4.

Since 2001, Italy or Spain (with Boonen in '05 as exception) has produced the road WC, plus the 2 Olympic road champions. Italy and Spain consistently have a plan, and they execute it. All other countries playing catchup and/or spoiler.

YMMV.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't see Gerrans doing squat. There is a big difference winning stages in grand tours and winning one day races...a huge difference!! I don't even see him cracking the top 10. Is this just nutt hugging or do people really think he has a chance?

+1
Unfortunately i agree, he won't be able to acclerate away from everyone om a climb, he won't beat valv or cunego in a sprint and their will be no breakaway group stay away from the get-go. Australia's best chance is evans.

 

[il_fiammingo]

+1
Unfortunately i agree, he won't be able to acclerate away from everyone om a climb, he won't beat valv or cunego in a sprint and their will be no breakaway group stay away from the get-go. Australia's best chance is evans.

I don't see how Evans is Australia's best chance. He is hardly capable of winning a stage race where performing consistently is more important than having finishing skills. And now he should do it in a one day race against killers like Cunego/Valverde/Gilbert?? I prefer to put my money on Gerrans who acts more clever in a race winning position IMO.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't see how Evans is Australia's best chance. He is hardly capable of winning a stage race where performing consistently is more important than having finishing skills. And now he should do it in a one day race against killers like Cunego/Valverde/Gilbert?? I prefer to put my money on Gerrans who acts more clever in a race winning position IMO.

gerrans won't even be there at the finish.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't see how Evans is Australia's best chance. He is hardly capable of winning a stage race where performing consistently is more important than having finishing skills. And now he should do it in a one day race against killers like Cunego/Valverde/Gilbert?? I prefer to put my money on Gerrans who acts more clever in a race winning position IMO.

If you were betting on which of the two would be top10 you would probably pick Evans, but to win it, Gerrans is a better chance.

 

[Angliru]

He clearly doesn't have the pedigree of Schleck, Sanchez, Cunego, Valverde, Gilbert or even Evans. But he has a habit of winning races when given a sniff, when some better riders always find/found a way to come in second - eg Hoste, Flecha, Boogerd, Evans etc.

This is primarily in breaks in stage races and not versus any of the elite you mention above.

I'm going with Valverde who has been sniffing at a WC gold for almost 6 years.
He has the climbing ability, endurance and the best finishing kick among the climbers that are likely to make the selection at the finish. Schleck has no sprint and isn't likely to be given any latitude to mount one of his escapes. Gilbert is aggressive but seems to lack the ability to make his attacks at the proper time--they're usually a couple of km's too early. Evans just doesn't win one day races--no tactical savvy to go with his otherwise elite level talents. Sanchez and Cunego are the primary threats to Valverde. Plus a Valverde win will definitely p*** a world of people off!

 

[Angliru]

These may not be that credible, but how about outsiders worth mentioning for the Worlds?
Kirchen, Scarponi, Freire have hardly been mentioned. Boom, Fedrigo, Duque... Am I going too far? Anyone in with a shout who hasn't been metioned?

Since you reintroduced Freire into the equation he has way of coming up with WC and big one day race wins when it is least expected. Plus he said he is focused on doing well in the Worlds, as are many others, but no one, and I mean no one, has his history of success in the World's. Add to that his record of being able to finish in the top 10 of LBL on occasion which would make his presence in the final group of riders contending for the win quite intimidating to some. If he and Valverde and even Sanchez are all still in the mix it may cause a tactical panic among the other teams. Having 3 riders with climbing, ability, smarts and strong finishing kicks has me leaning towards the Spanish reclaiming the gold from the Italians.

As far as Gerrans goes, I guess if Laurent Brochard can win a worlds so can he.

 

[Walshworld]

The Little Prince and Valverde's beard

Hard to argue against Cunego. If they ride hard for him, he's got the form and he's not afraid to attack. I could see Sanchez doing something but the bad Valverde press might prove a disruption for the Spanish team. Did you see Alejandro in his fake beard, staying incognito? Twisted Spoke at http://walshworld.wordpress.com/

 

[blaxland]

gerrans won't even be there at the finish.

i hope your not right auscyclefan cause i just put a bet on gerrans to win the worlds....i think cadel will be to tired from the vuelta to be the main aussie favourite...congratulations to jack bobridge u23 world tt champion,,

 

[auscyclefan94]

i hope your not right auscyclefan cause i just put a bet on gerrans to win the worlds....i think cadel will be to tired from the vuelta to be the main aussie favourite...congratulations to jack bobridge u23 world tt champion,,

i hope i'm wrong as well

 

[TRDean]

i hope your not right auscyclefan cause i just put a bet on gerrans to win the worlds....i think cadel will be to tired from the vuelta to be the main aussie favourite...congratulations to jack bobridge u23 world tt champion,,

I hope you didn't put too much down on Gerrans!! Never bet with your heart...use your head.

 

[Bala Verde]

With such a team car, I know who is going to beat the competition....

http://twitpic.com/itgeb

 

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