WT - Amstel Gold Race - Sunday 14 April 2013

[Roderick]

Chavanel beat Gilbert in a sprint at Paris Nice. Wonderful sprinter Chavanel. Gilbert is not the sprinter he used to be. He wins alone or usually he does not win. Gerrans is very good in uphill sprints as he has shown before and even on the flat is pretty good. His only chance against Sagan would be in an uphill sprint. Gilbert outsprinted Rodriguez for a stage in the Vuelta but once again Rodriguez is not a sprinter on the flat but very strong on the hills and Gilbert was very strong that day hitting his peak for the World's last year.

The only reason why Chavanel won that sprint is because Gilbert had to start sprinting at 300m from the finish

 

[Camulos]

The only reason why Chavanel won that sprint is because Gilbert had to start sprinting at 300m from the finish

This.
10 char

 

[movingtarget]

The only reason why Chavanel won that sprint is because Gilbert had to start sprinting at 300m from the finish

I know that but Gilbert used to do better in sprints, group sprints. I just think in these races Gerrans has the sprint to win, of course he is no bunch sprinter. I see Sagan as a level above Gilbert as far as sprinting goes but I don't see Gilbert being superior to Gerrans. He might be stronger when he is in form but not a better sprinter. I still think Sagan would find it much easier to win Amstel than LBL. If Rodriguez has the form he had last year I can't see him being beaten at Fleche, he is just so good on those types of climbs.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

Kolobnev for second

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Kolobnev for second

Nice little earner.

 

[Shardi]

Kolobnev for second

Actually a high chance of this if he is on form.

 

[greenedge]

If Rodriguez has the form he had last year I can't see him being beaten at Fleche, he is just so good on those types of climbs.

True- but if Gilbert is on his 2011 form he will probably beat him.

 

[Pippo_San]

Surely this was what you meant right? I fail too imagine a scenario in which Sagan doesn't win. Other than him crashing, of course.

First cycling axiom: "At the end of the race, Sagan wins".

Easy peasy.

 

[delbified]

sagan skilled PR but has had a tough campaign so far. he can't keep winning, as good as he is. i tip a winner who has held fire during the cobbled classics, as this race has produced in previous years.

 

[movingtarget]

True- but if Gilbert is on his 2011 form he will probably beat him.

If Gilbert is in his 2011 form he is unbeatable but that's a big if.

 

[manafana]

delighted my match wont clash with this, this shoudl be way more open than the classics so far really can argue for a few.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I had a dream this night that Sagan won and Ulissi was second. Some rather unknown were third. Ulissi and the one I don't remember the name of (he probably doesn't exist) from a late break and then Sagan went solo and caught the two of them.

So basically that how it's gonna play out

 

[RHRH19861986]

I had a dream this night that Sagan won and Ulissi was second. Some rather unknown were third. Ulissi and the one I don't remember the name of (he probably doesn't exist) from a late break and then Sagan went solo and caught the two of them.

So basically that how it's gonna play out

I didn´t want to write it down here, in this thread, because I thought no one would care, or wouldn´t just believe it, or whatever. But if you write about your last night´s dream, and if you´re serious, I write it down, and I am (!) serious:

I had the dream last night that an Euskaltel rider (no special name) won a road race (no special one). I didn´t check Castilla y Leons´s result yesterday evening, so I had no clue.

This is serious. Maybe it´s because I read the CN de Galdeano worrying article yesterday morning.

Sorry for being of topic. Feel free to create a thread about cycling dreams, I guess this would be entertaining.

 

[Red Rick]

I think a breakaway might win. I don't think anyone is gonna help Sagan to get it all back together, especially if BMC sends someone up the road, and I think he won't have many teammates left in the final.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Btw I looked at the course in detail now. And besides the 34 categorized climbs there are also about 10 climbs that aren't given a name or official count as climb. I've done these plenty of times while riding the tourist version. Some are very short and pretty steep, some 1/2km long and 2/3/4%, not much, but you do feel it at the end of the day.

The interesting bit is that the distance of the Gold Race is now shorter, but it has about the same amount of climbs as it had, maybe even 1 or 2 more if I looked correctly. So while the finishing lap is easier, the race is actually harder once again.

It's still going to be a race of attrition. Waste your powers too early and you're completely done for. If it's a boring race and 50 riders go into the last 3 climbs, you can count on 40 of those riders are practically dead and have no energy to attack, they'll be happy they can still follow...
It's the reason why Amstel is such a closed race, riders drop every hill and everyone except the best are dead at the final 20km...

I fear it's still going to be the same this year, more hills in less km.. yikes.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1. Sagan
2. Gilbert
3. Rodriguez
4. Mollema
5. Cunego
6. Valverde
7. Quintana
8. Hesjedal
9. Henao
10. Moser

 

[movingtarget]

Btw I looked at the course in detail now. And besides the 34 categorized climbs there are also about 10 climbs that aren't given a name or official count as climb. I've done these plenty of times while riding the tourist version. Some are very short and pretty steep, some 1/2km long and 2/3/4%, not much, but you do feel it at the end of the day.

The interesting bit is that the distance of the Gold Race is now shorter, but it has about the same amount of climbs as it had, maybe even 1 or 2 more if I looked correctly. So while the finishing lap is easier, the race is actually harder once again.

It's still going to be a race of attrition. Waste your powers too early and you're completely done for. If it's a boring race and 50 riders go into the last 3 climbs, you can count on 40 of those riders are practically dead and have no energy to attack, they'll be happy they can still follow...
It's the reason why Amstel is such a closed race, riders drop every hill and everyone except the best are dead at the final 20km...

I fear it's still going to be the same this year, more hills in less km.. yikes.

I will go out on a limb and say Gerrans after some good rides in the race previously and two stage wins in the Spanish stage races in the past few weeks. This could be his chance especially if Sagan's form starts to dip. Watch out for Voeckler also starting to look good.

 

[Carols]

Last night I had a dream.....

I was standing at the finish line and a small group sprinted for the win. It was taken by #106. Frantically I'm trying to find the roster to see who 106 was.

Fast forward in the dream. I weighed myself and I weighed 106!!

Next AM in the dream I was at a ITT and the winner had a time of 1:06.

So in reality the dream was about '106'. This AM back in reality my scale said 115, my normal weight and I just looked up #106. It is Quintana!!! Think I'll have a little wager on that lad

 

[staubsauger]

Hopefully Thommy V ist trying soming epic in the finale. Otherwise it might end up in a sprint between Sagan and Gilbert for sure.

 

[jens_attacks]

Btw I looked at the course in detail now. And besides the 34 categorized climbs there are also about 10 climbs that aren't given a name or official count as climb. I've done these plenty of times while riding the tourist version. Some are very short and pretty steep, some 1/2km long and 2/3/4%, not much, but you do feel it at the end of the day.

The interesting bit is that the distance of the Gold Race is now shorter, but it has about the same amount of climbs as it had, maybe even 1 or 2 more if I looked correctly. So while the finishing lap is easier, the race is actually harder once again.

It's still going to be a race of attrition. Waste your powers too early and you're completely done for. If it's a boring race and 50 riders go into the last 3 climbs, you can count on 40 of those riders are practically dead and have no energy to attack, they'll be happy they can still follow...
It's the reason why Amstel is such a closed race, riders drop every hill and everyone except the best are dead at the final 20km...

I fear it's still going to be the same this year, more hills in less km.. yikes.

any idea about thomas dekker's form? hoping for a good result here?

it will be extremely hard to beat sagan...gotta tire his team all the way to the finish and it might happen but in the sprint, i can't see it

 

[brilleaben]

My birthday is on sunday. My wish is for Nicki Sørensen to win. I consider it very realistic.

 

[Descender]

Last night I had a dream... this race was actually interesting for a change.

 

[Netserk]

Last night I had a dream... this race was actually interesting for a change.

Did it have a downhill finish?

 

[woodenswan]

a few weeks ago i dreamed that im racing a lad. it was a tightly contested sprint finish. i've managed to beat him, and then.. ahmm.. it turns out, he was.. he turned into.. Paris-Nice. the race to the sun. the whole.. race. he was the race itself. lets just say it was a lil confusing.

thx for sharing, woodenswan

anyways.. i hope it will be at least as close as it was on wednesday. but yeah. Sagan.

 

[podiumgirl]

Although for one reason or another he has never done well in this race, after 33-34 climbs and 250k, an on-form Balaverde could be there if it comes down to a sprint (something that he is still pretty good at). He's looked pretty skinny and has had good results so far. Prolly Sagan, and although I like his personality and style and recognize his immense talent, I'd prefer someone else. If everyone watches Sagan, Moser will do...