Your local weather

[Koronin]

June is going to be wetter than our yearly total.

No kidding. Plus hurricane season just started. We need to dry out before any of those decide to show up.

 

[Jagartrott]

June is going to be wetter than our yearly total.

Where are you exactly?

I study climate change impacts. Last year, we started an experiment looking into effects of more persistent weather. The trend for dry periods to be longer but also wet periods to be more persistent when they occur, has only been emerging recently. Basically, you're getting less average weather, and more situations where the atmosphere is 'stuck' in one mode.

After the wettest February ever recorded here in Belgium, we basically got almost no rain for nearly 3 months (mid-March until early June). These patterns are becoming clearer and clearer in many mid-latitude regions, probably caused by decreasing temperature differences between the arctic (climate warming goes faster there because of all sorts of positive feedbacks) and the equator, leading to a wavier jet stream with blocking highs. There are likely other factors at play regionally as well.

Fascinating stuff, weather and climate.

 

[Koronin]

Where are you exactly?

I study climate change impacts. Last year, we started an experiment looking into effects of more persistent weather. The trend for dry periods to be longer but also wet periods to be more persistent when they occur, has only been emerging recently. Basically, you're getting less average weather, and more situations where the atmosphere is 'stuck' in one mode.

After the wettest February ever recorded here in Belgium, we basically got almost no rain for nearly 3 months (mid-March until early June). These patterns are becoming clearer and clearer in many mid-latitude regions, probably caused by decreasing temperature differences between the arctic (climate warming goes faster there because of all sorts of positive feedbacks) and the equator, leading to a wavier jet stream with blocking highs. There are likely other factors at play regionally as well.

Fascinating stuff, weather and climate.

Don't know about dry and wet periods being longer, but I do know that hurricanes are getting stronger and larger.

 

[jmdirt]

Where are you exactly?

I study climate change impacts. Last year, we started an experiment looking into effects of more persistent weather. The trend for dry periods to be longer but also wet periods to be more persistent when they occur, has only been emerging recently. Basically, you're getting less average weather, and more situations where the atmosphere is 'stuck' in one mode.

After the wettest February ever recorded here in Belgium, we basically got almost no rain for nearly 3 months (mid-March until early June). These patterns are becoming clearer and clearer in many mid-latitude regions, probably caused by decreasing temperature differences between the arctic (climate warming goes faster there because of all sorts of positive feedbacks) and the equator, leading to a wavier jet stream with blocking highs. There are likely other factors at play regionally as well.

Fascinating stuff, weather and climate.

Boise Idaho USA. We had a dryish winter, dry spring and so far wet June. Its one thing to be rainy, but the obvious crazy part is the amount that falls per hour. There are no sprinkles, its torrential.

 

[Koronin]

Heat wave and humid. Basically it's hot enough that the A/C can't keep up.

 

[Koronin]

Well it's that time of year and we have a hurricane headed this way. Originally they were saying it would be here Monday, now it's looking more like Tuesday. However it should be a tropical storm instead of a Cat 1 Hurricane. So basically that means it will be a prolonged summer storm more than anything else.

 

[Koronin]

We survived with tree branches down, some fence damage and it appears my tomato plants didn't make it. Also lost power last night. Got it restored about 12 hours later. It is NOT fun being in the eastern eye wall of a hurricane. Those are the winds that knocked out power for basically the entire county I live in.

 

[jmdirt]

We survived with tree branches down, some fence damage and it appears my tomato plants didn't make it. Also lost power last night. Got it restored about 12 hours later. It is NOT fun being in the eastern eye wall of a hurricane. Those are the winds that knocked out power for basically the entire county I live in.

I hope that you are still good! The news footage looks awful!

 

[Koronin]

I hope that you are still good! The news footage looks awful!

Thanks. I'm fine. Last I checked about 2,000 of the 60,000 plus customers of the electric company I have still don't have power. But we started the day with almost full power outage. Only damage I saw for my property is the downspout that goes into the rain barrel broke, one section of fence that was broken from Florence and hadn't yet been repaired is not fully broke and some downed tree branches. Tomorrow I'll venture out as I have a job to do and by tomorrow all the main roads should be fine. I suspect the closer you get to the base and the beach the damage will be worse. The farther you go south to where the storm made landfall the damage is going to be worse. Oak Island looks horrible. It sounds like Wilmington didn't fair that well either. My manager for my main job lives there and we're supposed to have a zoom meeting this week, but as I didn't hear from her today, I'm sure they don't have power. Wilmington is about an hour and 15 minutes or so south of us. The harbor is closer to an hour 30 minutes south of us. That's where the battleship North Carolina museum is docked.

 

[RedheadDane]

I know this is gonna seem like nothing after Koronin's woes, but... it's so hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooot!
I know, 28 Celsius (82 Fahrenheit) isn't much compared to some places, but I wasn't built for this heat.

 

[Cookster15]

Don't know about dry and wet periods being longer, but I do know that hurricanes are getting stronger and larger.

You do know? Compared to when? Is this based upon feelings, news reports or actual data? My understanding is actual data shows tropical storm frequency and severity for the globe is not increasing and in fact has fallen slightly. But if you read a little into the science this makes sense. The IPCC predicts the poles will heat faster than the tropics. If this occurs then the atmospheric pressure differential will fall and therefore wind speeds will reduce as the poles warm faster than the tropics.

The science also says climate change is making the world wetter overall even if drought may be experienced in some regions.

The climate models have a built in assumption that warming from CO2 will be magnified by feedbacks from water vapor trapping heat in the upper troposphere. This increased humidity will increase rainfall overall even if drought is experienced in some regions. The warming effect for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration by the year 2100 is only 1.1C - source IPCC. The rest predicted is due to the assumed warming of these humidity feedbacks.

 

[Koronin]

You do know? Compared to when? Is this based upon feelings, news reports or actual data? My understanding is actual data shows tropical storm frequency and severity for the globe is not increasing and in fact has fallen slightly. But if you read a little into the science this makes sense. The IPCC predicts the poles will heat faster than the tropics. If this occurs then the atmospheric pressure differential will fall and therefore wind speeds will reduce as the poles warm faster than the tropics.

The science also says climate change is making the world wetter overall even if drought may be experienced in some regions.

The climate models have a built in assumption that warming from CO2 will be magnified by feedbacks from water vapor trapping heat in the upper troposphere. This increased humidity will increase rainfall overall even if drought is experienced in some regions. The warming effect for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration by the year 2100 is only 1.1C - source IPCC. The rest predicted is due to the assumed warming of these humidity feedbacks.

Like the severity of hurricanes that have been hitting the US over the past several years.

 

[Koronin]

I know this is gonna seem like nothing after Koronin's woes, but... it's so hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooot!
I know, 28 Celsius (82 Fahrenheit) isn't much compared to some places, but I wasn't built for this heat.

Sorry it's hotter than normal there for you. It was in the 90's F here before the hurricane. Yesterday upper 80's today mid 80's with a wonderful thunderstorm. However, understandable. Depending on where are live and what we are used to different temperatures are going to feel different for each of us.

 

[Koronin]

Well it appears that the Gulf coast is going to get hit by two different hurricanes at on the same day. That's a new one. If anyone here is in the path of either of these, stay safe.

 

[Cookster15]

Like the severity of hurricanes that have been hitting the US over the past several years.

Actually, global data suggests otherwise. Perception and reality.

 

[Koronin]

Actually, global data suggests otherwise. Perception and reality.

2005 4 hurricanes hit the US. 2017 4 hurricanes hit the US 2020 will have a minimum of 3, which will include two hitting very likely on the same day. We aren't close to being done with hurricane season yet.

40 Years of Data Confirm Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger. Climate Models Were Right

The most powerful storms on our planet have grown substantially stronger, and almost forty years' worth of hurricane satellite imagery suggest a warming planet might be fuelling the changes.

www.sciencealert.com

Long-term data show hurricanes are getting stronger

In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study involving an analysis of nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.

www.sciencedaily.com

 

[Cookster15]

2005 4 hurricanes hit the US. 2017 4 hurricanes hit the US 2020 will have a minimum of 3, which will include two hitting very likely on the same day. We aren't close to being done with hurricane season yet.

40 Years of Data Confirm Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger. Climate Models Were Right

The most powerful storms on our planet have grown substantially stronger, and almost forty years' worth of hurricane satellite imagery suggest a warming planet might be fuelling the changes.

www.sciencealert.com

Long-term data show hurricanes are getting stronger

In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study involving an analysis of nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.

www.sciencedaily.com

Yes the Atlantic ACEs confirm this. However, Eastern Pacific ACE's show only 4 of the 14 years since 2006 were above normal. 4 years in this period were below normal ACE. Easily Googled. So the linked story is only right for part of the globe.

 

[Koronin]

Yes the Atlantic ACEs confirm this. However, Eastern Pacific ACE's show only 4 of the 14 years since 2006 were above normal. 4 years in this period were below normal ACE. Easily Googled. So the linked story is only right for part of the globe.

So you don't disagree with this:

Like the severity of hurricanes that have been hitting the US over the past several years.

They are more powerful. Thus proving that perception of those of us who live in the eastern seaboard of the US ARE experiencing more powerful hurricanes.

 

[Cookster15]

So you don't disagree with this:





They are more powerful. Thus proving that perception of those of us who live in the eastern seaboard of the US ARE experiencing more powerful hurricanes.

You are talking about the US. I am talking global. Climate models try to predict global trends.

 

[Koronin]

You are talking about the US. I am talking global. Climate models try to predict global trends.

I've always been talking about hurricanes hitting the US's eastern seaboard. Those ARE stronger. Date proves they are stronger.

 

[Cookster15]

I've always been talking about hurricanes hitting the US's eastern seaboard. Those ARE stronger. Date proves they are stronger.

That's fine. I just wanted you to be aware of the global research. You might also like to think about the story you quoted which claimed the data in the Atlantic proves what the climate models predicted. Yes it does in the Atlantic. But not the globe. Anyhow, this thread is about weather, not climate so we should be mindful.

 

[Koronin]

That's fine. I just wanted you to be aware of the global research. You might also like to think about the story you quoted which claimed the data in the Atlantic proves what the climate models predicted. Yes it does in the Atlantic. But not the globe. Anyhow, this thread is about weather, not climate so we should be mindful.

True and hurricanes are definitely part of the weather where I live. Isaias just went through here a few weeks ago causing a lot of damage. Now it appears the path of Laura once it hits in the gulf will come up this way and we could very well get rain from it.

 

[Cookster15]

True and hurricanes are definitely part of the weather where I live. Isaias just went through here a few weeks ago causing a lot of damage. Now it appears the path of Laura once it hits in the gulf will come up this way and we could very well get rain from it.

Good luck. In Australia where I live I am in no direct danger from tropical cyclones which only threaten our relatively unpopulated tropical north. But in America's populated regions you cop some worrying weather.

Whilst hurricanes are bad I find your tornados truly terrifying. In April 2011 I was in Minnesota in for a business trip during the so called "super outbreak". We were out one evening and noticed flashes of lightening in the distance but didn't think anything of it. But next day there were news reports advising three people lost their lives in a Tornado just 30 miles from where we were! Next day a huge storm passed overhead when I was in my room. I watched it from my window. The hotel lobby even called my room to advise I could move to the lobby if I felt safer there. I don't know how people can live with the possible threat of these things! What makes this worse is these things can come in the night when you are sleeping!

 

[Koronin]

Good luck. In Australia where I live I am in no direct danger from tropical cyclones which only threaten our relatively unpopulated tropical north. But in America's populated regions you cop some worrying weather.

Whilst hurricanes are bad I find your tornados truly terrifying. In April 2011 I was in Minnesota in for a business trip during the so called "super outbreak". We were out one evening and noticed flashes of lightening in the distance but didn't think anything of it. But next day there were news reports advising three people lost their lives in a Tornado just 30 miles from where we were! Next day a huge storm passed overhead when I was in my room. I watched it from my window. The hotel lobby even called my room to advise I could move to the lobby if I felt safer there. I don't know how people can live with the possible threat of these things! What makes this worse is these things can come in the night when you are sleeping!

I grew up with tornadoes. I'm originally from Ohio. They get one every few years. The one I'll never forget was in 1985. It bounced multiple times with tons and tons of destruction. The closest it came to our house was about 2 miles where it touched down on the top of the hill fully destroying a power substation and a roller rink. Took about 4 days to get power restored. that one picked up homes off their foundation and moved them in tact down the road. Right before it touched down there was hail and then it felt like all the air was being sucked out of the area. However, it the tornadoes in the plains that do the most damage, typically. That's because everything is flat and once they touchdown they can just go for miles and miles along the ground. Where in hilly or mountainous east or west they are more likely to bounce. One big difference is tornadoes leave a lot of damage, but in smaller paths than hurricanes. Also hurricanes can spawn tornadoes.

 

[Koronin]

The second hurricane to hit the Gulf coast this week is going to be extremely dangerous. It's a strong cat 4 now and could still become a Cat 5. Predictions are for huge storm surge of up to 20 feet. I hope those in it's path have evacuated. This one is Hurricane Laura. The other one, Marco was basically a rain event.