“I have never admired Armstrong and never will.”

[Angliru]

Like the majority of Tour champions, no?

I can't see him getting a whole lot stronger, but I can see him being able to showcase that stregth a lot more.

Maybe not stronger, although as this is simply one's theory, it remains to be seen, but likely he will continue to grow wiser tactically and gain a better understanding of using retraint and efficiency in his riding. I believe he will always be an attacking rider though, it seems to be in his blood.

 

[Race Radio]

I also have a theory that he could be an earlier developer than other riders so won't see the improvements that others see in their late 20s. He's already made that leap.

Early developer? AC has not even started shaving.

Armstrong's development started when he began using Ferrari's "Training" schedule.

 

[franciep10]

Maybe not stronger, although as this is simply one's theory, it remains to be seen, but likely he will continue to grow wiser tactically and gain a better understanding of using retraint and efficiency in his riding. I believe he will always be an attacking rider though, it seems to be in his blood.

lol, anyway I think he could get better at sustaining those attacks and getting better in the time trial.

 

[Angliru]

lol, anyway I think he could get better at sustaining those attacks and getting better in the time trial.

Agreed. The future is bright.

 

[Sprocket01]

LOL
Yet, you and your fanboy mates confidently predict that, next year, a 39 YO is going to make a leap, that surpasses the physical levels, that brought him 7 TDFs.
Once again into the realms of science, meets fiction.
What parallel universe do you all come from?

I haven't even mentioned Armstrong. I said Contador is the overwhelming favourite. I just think this year's race was a bit misleading. A rider can look really comfortable when there is nobody close to him. If someone can put AC under a little bit of pressure then it might force him to make a few too many attacks and he could over cook it. We just don't know.

As for Armstrong, given this was his first year back he is bound to improve next year. The problem for him is that it's a moving target. But he knows this. You guys can support the favourite if you like, but I think that's boring - I'll be rooting for the wily old-timer underdog.

 

[Sprocket01]

lol, anyway I think he could get better at sustaining those attacks and getting better in the time trial.

I don't think this 8km prologue will suit AC. If he does manage to win that against the time trial specialists and sprinters then we really will know it's all over on the first day.

 

[Sprocket01]

A training race? Good spot to make errors and learn.

It wasn't really a training race. He tried to win it.

 

[franciep10]

I haven't even mentioned Armstrong. I said Contador is the overwhelming favourite. I just think this year's race was a bit misleading. A rider can look really comfortable when there is nobody close to him. If someone can put AC under a little bit of pressure then it might force him to make a few too many attacks and he could over cook it. We just don't know.

As for Armstrong, given this was his first year back he is bound to improve next year. The problem for him is that it's a moving target. But he knows this. You guys can support the favourite if you like, but I think that's boring - I'll be rooting for the wily old-timer underdog.

You must have a horrible memory because the 08 giro he wasn't in form ricco and di luca attacking every-time they hit a bump in the road to put him under pressure and he held on to win by a narrow margin, leading to one of the best giro that I've watched, where his lead was 4 seconds going into the final time-trial. As to Armstrong if he comes back next year and wins a meaningful race next year then we'll talk about him.

 

[franciep10]

I don't think this 8km prologue will suit AC. If he does manage to win that against the time trial specialists and sprinters then we really will know it's all over on the first day.

Well he beat wiggins in a pan flat time-trial at Paris-Nice, I don't think he beats spartacus though.

 

[Rupert]

Ironman 2011

...Heck, Armstrong knows what is up. Otherwise he would not be planning on doing an Ironman two months after the TdF.

I think that's 14 months, not 2...

 

[Mellow Velo]

As for Armstrong, given this was his first year back he is bound to improve next year. The problem for him is that it's a moving target. But he knows this. You guys can support the favourite if you like, but I think that's boring - I'll be rooting for the wily old-timer underdog.

Ain't about supporting the favourite, but pulling, what you try to pass off as logic, to bits. (It isn't hard, either)
In 12 months, Contador should improve, Schleck, Nibali Kreuziger, even Wiggins, should improve. Evans, Sastre and Menchov will rebound.
Armstrong isn't bound to improve. His age puts him firmly on the downward slope.
He'll do well to cling to his present form, while his fans continue to clutch at straws.

 

[derailleur]

"No, I think the main threat will b... disruption to your team, you ain't thinking.

 

[Publicus]

I haven't even mentioned Armstrong. I said Contador is the overwhelming favourite. I just think this year's race was a bit misleading. A rider can look really comfortable when there is nobody close to him. If someone can put AC under a little bit of pressure then it might force him to make a few too many attacks and he could over cook it. We just don't know.

So you must have missed Saxo Bank trying to blow him and all of the other contenders up at the base of Verbier and the Schleck Brother assault on Stage 17? That's real race pressure and he withstood all of it, and in the case of Verbier, blew the doors off of everyone.

Your point is well taken, but it's not as if he's never been under pressure before or consistently wilted under the pressure.

 

[derailleur]

Thats because Basso and Vino stopped doping. Armstrong did not.

I deduce you have no use at all for empirical evidence.

 

[Rupert]

Crosswinds

I think Lance twitted a bit too much of "AC has a lot to learn".

Lance has a long history of saying things better left unsaid, and twitter just makes it worse. If Contador is able to use and focus his anger into good performance (as Armstrong does), Armstrong is just hurting himself with his verbal jabs. Not that it makes a difference in the end, as long as Contador keeps his head and avoids bad luck, he is the clear faviorite.

Really though AC seems completely relaxed, mainly in the mountains. He knows he can ride away from pretty much everyone and that he can dictate the race, and generally makes a move at the right time.

Mostly agree with this, especially since you said "pretty much" and "generally." Important qualifiers, as Contador can (and will) surely improve his tactical thinking a bit... Never say "always" and never say "never..."

Sure you might think he leaves a bit to be desired on the flat roads, but next year he will actually have a team to look after him on the cobbles/windy plains.

You can bet he'll be acutely aware of missing a split in the first week, after the lesson learned the hard way last time.

 

[Publicus]

I expect this quote has already been printed out and pinned to bulletin boards in garages in Spain, Texas, and Colorado.

Watch your presumptions, Alberto. "Supporting" you was the only reason the dude didn't put more time into your skinny **** when he had the chance last year. He never once got a clear "go" to attack you.

And if you think Vino is going to be less of a disruption to your team, you ain't thinking.

LOL. Lance didn't support jack squat last year, he was supported. And he had every opportunity to assert himself on Arcalis or Verbier, but couldn't--nobody was holding him back in either instance (LA was already not listening to JB at Arcalis (it wasn't just AC)) . I won't bring up the subsequent stages because he was never in a position to assert himself or put more time into AC's skinny **** (hard to do that when you are riding behind someone).

But next year . . . .

 

[derailleur]

Who said AC isn't doping?

Prezacktly.

If LA was doping, AC was using the same stuff, and JB was bootlegging it into the team bus.

 

[derailleur]

I swear, some of these idolisers would expect LA to be beating the best 25-30 YOs in the world, were he still riding at 50.
No concept of the sport beyond this one man and his myth.

Expect it? No. Claim it couldn't happen? No.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle you excluded.

 

[ggusta]

I don't think this 8km prologue will suit AC. If he does manage to win that against the time trial specialists and sprinters then we really will know it's all over on the first day.

If he is stuck with Astana, he may not want to get the mj until later. What would be the advantage of winning the prologue. I think it would be better for AC, and more fun for all of us if LA wins the prologue. It would be maybe even more fun if another 'shack'er' wins the prologue.

 

[derailleur]

No, he thinks he is, and people who think they are bigger than the sport they compete in/oversee are the ones directly responsible for ruining it. Cycling is full of these people/organisations.

If Lance was bigger than cycling, he never would have returned. You can do a lot more for cancer if you don't have to worry about being a full-time professional athlete.

No, he is. He's much bigger than cycling. I'd bet most of the people who know of him have never bothered to turn on a live broadcast of a bicycle race and couldn't name even one other pro cyclist living or dead.

But by returning to cycling he raises the media heat on his foundation and on cycling. His foundation will get more worldwide exposure, and cycling will get ten to a hundred times more exposure in the U.S. (I am not being hyperbolic about those numbers; I'm making an educated estimate of the number of stories ESPN or SI do on cycling in a year when he is or isn't participating).

He was doing a lot for cancer while "retired", but he realized that his best means of focussing attention on himself and thereby putting attention on his foundation, was to return to the thing he, personally, does best. It also feeds his competitive urge, and being able to choose your battles to coincide with your skills is one way to maximize your chances of winning.

Or he could have spent his retirement logging into message boards and haranguing pro athletes in absentia. What a productive and satisfying life that must be.

 

[Sprocket01]

In 12 months, Contador should improve

But I'm saying that I have a theory that Contador has already made the leap that other riders do slightly later, therefore he won't improve by that much. The other riders around him could well have a better chance of improving than he does.

Armstrong isn't bound to improve. His age puts him firmly on the downward slope. He'll do well to cling to his present form, while his fans continue to clutch at straws.

Obviously his age is a concern, but he will only be one year older than he was this year, which was his first year back and he finished 3rd. We know it usually takes a year or two to get back up to that high level of form that it takes to do well in GC, so he is likely to be better, providing no more injuries. The problem for him is its a moving target where other riders are likely to improve as well.

 

[Sprocket01]

If he is stuck with Astana, he may not want to get the mj until later. What would be the advantage of winning the prologue. I think it would be better for AC, and more fun for all of us if LA wins the prologue. It would be maybe even more fun if another 'shack'er' wins the prologue.

Maybe. Even if he loses it he will only be down a few seconds over that distance. It's not important. But just saying if he were to win it, we'd know his form is so good the tour will effectively be over.

 

[BYOP88]

If he is stuck with Astana, he may not want to get the mj until later. What would be the advantage of winning the prologue. I think it would be better for AC, and more fun for all of us if LA wins the prologue. It would be maybe even more fun if another 'shack'er' wins the prologue.

No it's best LA comes nowhere near the MJ at any point in the race, cos if he held it for even one day, he would then say "The objective was to wear the jersey for one day and this shows what a 30whatever it is old can do in the fight against cancer this gives a global boost to my foundation blah blah blah blah".

LA has as much chance as me of wearing the MJ in next years Tour and i have no chance.

 

[Sprocket01]

On Armstrong. As someone mentioned right at the top of the thread, Armstrong will have a better mentality for training this year. He thrives on grudges and the hatred expressed against him, so the bust up with Contador, the drug allegations, the media pressure and the array of haters out there mocking his defeat, couldn't be better for him. The striking thing about LA for most of this year, before the tour, is how laid back he was. He was distracted looking. We didn't see glimpses of the old Lance until the Giro when he fell out with the press, but his training plan had already been compromised by then and there was no specific enemy. This year he'll have a really good focus right through the whole year. That can only work to his favour.

 

[derailleur]

He got 3rd...

2nd loser.

Most Improved.