106th Ronde van Vlaanderen: April 3rd, 2022

[Netserk]

At this rate Pogs sprint might be getting as overrated as Gilberts 2011 season. MOst particularly because it's based on a sprint he didn't even win and where the best sprinter he beat was Mauke Bollema.

Huh? It's based on his winning sprints of Liège 2021, Laruns (Tour 2020), and Cullera (Valenciana 2020).

 

[ice&fire]

How can you forget Pog outspring TGFM in Lombardia '21?

 

[hayneplane]

Laporte would have had a great chance of Devoldering his way to the win with Wout in the race but if he is out he can still win but it becomes much less likely.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

VDP wasn't in top top form when Asgreen beat him in a sprint last year. I don't see any way in which Pogacar outsprints him.

I do see a way in which Pogacar gets away in some cat and mouse games and then solo's to the win.
I don't see a way in which Pogacar drops the more explosive guys straight up on a climb. Not in Flanders.

 

[Lequack]

Pog needs to learn from Campanaerts.

 

[johnymax]

Dont think he is. Don’t think any of the top contenders is to be fair. Only remember that van der poel had an empty tank in Yorkshire in heavy conditions.

I think Pogacar sometimes suffers (slightly) in very hot conditions, but don’t remember seeing him in snow to be honest…

Pogi loves the cold and the rain, he'd like the snow too, I'd imagine.

 

[Red Rick]

Huh? It's based on his winning sprints of Liège 2021, Laruns (Tour 2020), and Cullera (Valenciana 2020).

He beat Ardennes style climbers. Not Flandrien style riders who also win bunch sprints or close enough. And Alaphilippe hasn't won any significant flat group sprint in ages.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I think Pogi will beat MVDP on Sunday because Pogi can go all the way for 260kms, whereas the distance will be too long for Mathieu. Mathieu lacks training, still. Pogi had perfect preparation.

In 300kms MSR, this was no problem, because the first 250kms were quiet. In Flanders, it‘ll be full gas from kilometer 80 or 100 on.

I expect Pogi will drop Mathieu deep in the finale.

In fact, I expect Pogi to perform one of his soul-destroying moves. Remember, Pogi destroyed Dumo‘s soul in PDBF, so that Dumo was unable to ride a bike race for months, soon afterwards. Fausto got destroyed in Lombardia, 2021. Now, in Flanders 2022, it could be Mathieu who‘ll become Pogi‘s next victim.

I could imagine that Roodhooft and Mathieu will call Niermann and Wout ten times during Saturday, to make Wout come and ride RVV. Mathieu will need Wout to cover Pogi‘s attacks on Sunday. Just like it was in San Remo…

 

[topcat]

Am I crazy to think that Pogacar could beat VdP in a sprint after making the race as hard as possible?

Yes

 

[johnymax]

I agree with Red Rick here. I think Pogi's sprint is getting a bit overrated. He is very strong, the best among climbers, but no way he beats riders like MvdP or Wout.
Anyway, if Wout doesn't feel well, my prediction:

1. MvdP
2. Mohorič
3. Pogi

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Pogacar outsprinted Masnada on lombardia after 260km. He is very very fast

 

[Netserk]

He beat Ardennes style climbers. Not Flandrien style riders who also win bunch sprints or close enough. And Alaphilippe hasn't won any significant flat group sprint in ages.

"it's based on a sprint he didn't even win and where the best sprinter he beat was Mauke Bollema."

What were you talking about?

 

[search]

Tokyo, I guess

 

[Netserk]

Tokyo, I guess

Ah, I really should have recognised that. It still isn't his most impressive sprint, but it's informative for De Ronde as well.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think Pogacar will win in a two way sprint against MVP. This is beyond stupid because MVP is way faster but Pogacar has the best endurance and recovery in the peloton. The weather will play a role too and Pogacar is a beast on cold temperatures

 

[jaylew]

Laporte would have had a great chance of Devoldering his way to the win with Wout in the race but if he is out he can still win but it becomes much less likely.

I was leaning on picking he or Benoot if Wout was racing . I just don't see Mathieu chasing with Wout just sitting on his wheel for any significant amount of time and I don't think he has teammates that will make it deep into the race.

 

[YavorD]

In a two man sprint, I can see Pog beating MVP. Depending of the way the race unfolds, if both stay clear and in the last km Pog stays on his wheel..
However if after Patererg there is a 4-5 man group with MVP, Pogacar's only chance is going solo.

P.s. Sounds mad that the current TdF winner is a top favorite in Flanders...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

That makes sense for a retrospective evaluation, not a prospective evaluation. The latter is the context of this conversation.

Was Froome a favourite to win the 2018 Giro? Not by past results in the race, but they were clearly not the best information to base your expectations on.

I get your point but I don't think your Froome example is a very good one. The discussion was whether you should look at results or performances when judging a rider's potential in a race. Looking at Froome's previous results in the Giro, no you wouldn't make him a favorite for the Giro 18. But you wouldn't make him a favorite when looking at his previous performances in the race either.

You'll always have to have a retrospective look at a rider to judge his potential. There's really no other way around it. You can then emphasize results or performances - or both. Some emphasize performances more heavily and that's fine, I understand why. I just tend to emphasize results - and probably more so than most.

 

[AlfaLum]

VDP wasn't in top top form when Asgreen beat him in a sprint last year. I don't see any way in which Pogacar outsprints him.

I do see a way in which Pogacar gets away in some cat and mouse games and then solo's to the win.
I don't see a way in which Pogacar drops the more explosive guys straight up on a climb. Not in Flanders.

Everytime van der Poel doesnt win he was just not in top form right?

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I agree with Red Rick here. I think Pogi's sprint is getting a bit overrated. He is very strong, the best among climbers, but no way he beats riders like MvdP or Wout.
Anyway, if Wout doesn't feel well, my prediction:

1. MvdP
2. Mohorič
3. Pogi

Indeed, Mohoric will be strong.

Mohoric himself only talked about his risk tolerance and his seatpost all the time, after San Remo. What neither Matej nor someone else spoke about: Mohoric, in the meantime, has become one of the strongest stage hunters and one-day-specialists in the peloton, especially in the last time. I expect him to be very dangerous in the next weeks.

Now that he has won a monument, additionally, he will benefit from San Remo a lot. Plus, Bahrain‘s lineup for Sunday is really strong, with Haussler, Tratnik and Teuns all able to work for Mohoric also deep in the finale…

 

[YavorD]

I get your point but I don't think your Froome example is a very good one. The discussion was whether you should look at results or performances when judging a rider's potential in a race. Looking at Froome's previous results in the Giro, no you wouldn't make him a favorite for the Giro 18. But you wouldn't make him a favorite when looking at his previous performances in the race either.

You'll always have to have a retrospective look at a rider to judge his potential. There's really no other way around it. You can then emphasize results or performances - or both. Some emphasize performances more heavily and that's fine, I understand why. I just tend to emphasize results - and probably more so than most.

Fair point about Froome, however, DNF is a result, but the performance before (or even circumstances in particular) is what really matters in a prospective PoV. DNF while fighting for the win worths more than DNF while in the 7th group, doesn't it?
To use a proper example, take a look at Danny Van Poppel's last results in RVV They are, I think, better than Alaphilippe's. Would he be a more important rider for the race solely based on results?

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I agree with Red Rick here. I think Pogi's sprint is getting a bit overrated. He is very strong, the best among climbers, but no way he beats riders like MvdP or Wout.
Anyway, if Wout doesn't feel well, my prediction:

1. MvdP
2. Mohorič
3. Pogi

I feel like Pidcock is being underrated even though he’s sort of off form but he still looks fine, I’ll put him 3rd behind MVDP and Mohoric.

 

[AlfaLum]

Asgreen is underrated!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Everytime van der Poel doesnt win he was just not in top form right?

Well he clearly wasn't from the moment he left Tirreno. Same with Van Aert. They over exerted themselves in that extreme edition.

In fact both 2020/2021 have not been great years for Vdp. In 2020 he *** up the corona period and was overtrained when the races got going.

In 2021 he overdid it in the Tirreno and killed his best form there.
And in the Autumn he was riding with back issues and a poor preparation so yes. I'd say since 2019 he only had very short periods were he was actually in top form

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The question for Pogacar isn't positioning or knowing the course for me. It's whether or not the course is hard enough for him to have any advantage over Van der Poel here anywhere and I don't really think so. He may get a more tactical win though.

I definitely think Pogacar's sprint can be competitive against MVP, especially after a long difficult race.