108th Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 24 April, 2022

[Red Rick]

All the Ardennes specialists have their brains hardwired to no attacks before the final climb and taking the initiative as little as physically possible. That might have been Evenepoel's biggest asset today, hopefully the dynamics change like they have in Sanremo from days like today because an Amstel 2017/Lombardia 2016-esque parcours change is not imminent...

It's just the physiological nature of the race.

1 minute climbs are super anaerobic efforts by default and a Flandrien can just go all out on many of them and see what happens. Also if you attack before them you don't spend so much energy that you're *** if the chase behidn you and then fly up a hill.

There is no reason for climbers to attack early because if they cannot win on the RaF they cannot win anywhere.

Also I would argue that gaps in ability in 4-6 minute climbs are quite narrow, so it requires a near max effort to get much done, and it's hard to really destroy the peloton without near max efforts.

In de Ronde they do the first Pater about as quickly as the final one. In Fleche Wallone they do the final Mur over 30% slower the 2nd time than the last time.

 

[Netserk]

Fair point, but I think even if the climbers do dispatch of the heavier riders, they'll be reeled in on the run in. If prime Sagan or Cancellara break free on a Flanders climb, good luck bringing them back. What good is a 15 second gap with an 11k run in going to serve a whispy climber with Van Aert and co in hot pursuit?

Hence why I say the flat run in is way too long. 3-4k would be ok.

After the descent, the run in is just over 2 km. It was far longer in 2019, but no problem for the strongest rider then.

 

[jmdirt]

Lot of comment on the race scenario, no one looked at the wind? Going solo or in a small group was not an option today. This is why the race finished with a sprint with 10 riders. Teuns-Martinez-Vlasov would probably have been the podium without the wind. And what to say about external factors, without them podium was Pog - Rog - Alaf.

The winner did.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

And the organizers intentionally modified the parcours to prevent him from winning after 2017.

It's not the organiser's fault it's hard to win this race if you refuse to take turns

 

[Extinction]

My boy Pozzovivo, despite having crashed, quietly rode to the finish in the chase group. Sure, he is the proverbial nearly man, but he rocks nonetheless (and so much misfortune during his long career).

 

[Leinster]

Fair point, but I think even if the climbers do dispatch of the heavier riders, they'll be reeled in on the run in. If prime Sagan or Cancellara break free on a Flanders climb, good luck bringing them back. What good is a 15 second gap with an 11k run in going to serve a whispy climber with Van Aert and co in hot pursuit?

Hence why I say the flat run in is way too long. 3-4k would be ok.

I think as others have hinted above, the key is to make the middle 80kms harder, rather than mess with the run in. As we saw with the last few years in Ans (and with Flèche every year, and the old Amstel route) if you leave the final hill too close to the finish, then the attacks happen there.

Liege has never been set up for the pure mountain goats, if you’re looking for Purito vs Contador you’ve come to the wrong race. The recent winners of Liege (GT winners, 1-week stage race specialists, puncheurs) are exactly the kind of rider it’s always favoured.

 

[Velolover2]

These (Thier de Coo, Hezalles) would still come at least 60-70 km from the finish. If they were to remove RaF, they need to change and beef up the last section before Redoute. That section in the current version has too gentle climbs on too wide roads.

I'd remove the Haute (wide roads) and Roiser (long, chaser friendly) and go in a western direction after Stockeu. There is a large hill range to the south of Redoute.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's just the physiological nature of the race.

1 minute climbs are super anaerobic efforts by default and a Flandrien can just go all out on many of them and see what happens. Also if you attack before them you don't spend so much energy that you're *** if the chase behidn you and then fly up a hill.

There is no reason for climbers to attack early because if they cannot win on the RaF they cannot win anywhere.

Also I would argue that gaps in ability in 4-6 minute climbs are quite narrow, so it requires a near max effort to get much done, and it's hard to really destroy the peloton without near max efforts.

In de Ronde they do the first Pater about as quickly as the final one. In Fleche Wallone they do the final Mur over 30% slower the 2nd time than the last time.

It's a problem that's only become prevalent in the 21st century, around the same time as Amstel. Six years ago the common wisdom was that it was a cobbles versus asphalt thing, then the Amstel revamp disproved that theory. No point to find a new theory to try to fit the current divide when the final climb of the race is arguably the hardest, certainly for an attacker trying to hold off a chase, and the entire race, minus a few hills, is on really wide roads.

 

[OlavEH]

Liege has never been set up for the pure mountain goats, if you’re looking for Purito vs Contador you’ve come to the wrong race. The recent winners of Liege (GT winners, 1-week stage race specialists, puncheurs) are exactly the kind of rider it’s always favoured.

I liked the latest versions of LBL. Solo win by Fuglsang who were clearly the strongest hilly climber that year. And small groups with the strongest riders the last couple of years. Pog vs Rog vs Ala vs Van Aert is exactly what I prefer.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Actually Remco benefitted from having many domestics when he made his attack because the leaders would rely on their domestics to bring Remco back - Have to wonder whether Pogacar or Roglic would have allowed their domestics to do the work.

You've often seen Roglic lead the chase of a group?

 

[OlavEH]

I'd remove the Haute (wide roads) and Roiser (long, chaser friendly) and go in a western direction after Stockeu. There is a large hill range to the south of Redoute.

Yep, but these climbs looks to be exactly optimally aligned to add between Stockeau and Redoute. In that case you need to do a very long and mostly flat loop around to reach them?

 

[Leinster]

I liked the latest versions of LBL. Solo win by Fuglsang who were clearly the strongest hilly climber that year. And small groups with the strongest riders the last couple of years. Pog vs Rog vs Ala vs Van Aert is exactly what I prefer.

Yup. And of the Ans finishes, I liked Jungels’ solo win the best.

but also I have to be a fan of Dan Martin’s win, following chasers behind Hesjedal’s solo, and picking his moment.

 

[Jagartrott]

No comment on Remco’s right-way-up 13?

According to the commentators, he won his first pro-race with number 13 as well.

 

[Netserk]

Sadly climate action never comes first

Not when it is championed by clowns like today.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Yep, but these climbs looks to be exactly optimally aligned to add between Stockeau and Redoute. In that case you need to do a very long and mostly flat loop around to reach them?

The best option imo is to approach Stavelot from the east. Then Stockeu in full, Wanne from the opposite side, Hézalles, either side of Brume, Chevron, and then find the best route to Redoute, either focusing on narrow roads or through Lorcé, and after Redoute only Forges and maybe a second, similar hill.

Something like this.

Hézalles and Lorcé were both there in the 90s so it isn't too radical a departure from the history of the race.

 

[Big Doopie]

Fair point, but I think even if the climbers do dispatch of the heavier riders, they'll be reeled in on the run in. If prime Sagan or Cancellara break free on a Flanders climb, good luck bringing them back. What good is a 15 second gap with an 11k run in going to serve a whispy climber with Van Aert and co in hot pursuit?

Hence why I say the flat run in is way too long. 3-4k would be ok.

LBL is the all-rounder/GC rider monument. Not the climbers monument. Look at who has won here in the history.

 

[OlavEH]

The best option imo is to approach Stavelot from the east. Then Stockeu in full, Wanne from the opposite side, Hézalles, either side of Brume, Chevron, and then find the best route to Redoute, either focusing on narrow roads or through Lorcé, and after Redoute only Forges and maybe a second, similar hill.

Something like this.

Hézalles and Lorcé were both there in the 90s so it isn't too radical a departure from the history of the race.

This version would actually put Redoute only 17 km from the finish. It wouldn't be much more different than today where RaF is 13 km from the finish. You could add Colonster after RaF like someone suggested in the Van Aert thread last week, and RaF would be further awaw from the finish.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

According to the commentators, he won his first pro-race with number 13 as well.

I already posted a picture during the race of him becoming world Champion wearing bib 13.

 

[Leinster]

Who did a stupid move against the 4 main teams still with domestiques (Bahrein, Movistar, Ineos, Jumbo) and a strong headwind.

“Attack as late as you can, but always before your rivals,” or however that quote goes.

 

[Velolover2]

Yep, but these climbs looks to be exactly optimally aligned to add between Stockeau and Redoute. In that case you need to do a very long and mostly flat loop around to reach them?

I wouldn't mind a 270-280 km Liege tbh.

Stockeau - > Renardmont -> Cheneux > Chevron -> Hes Grevis -> Lorce -> Niaster -> Redoute.

You can design a route like that and keep it below the 280 km mark.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ouch!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518253993142726660

View: https://twitter.com/larrywarbasse/status/1518253993142726660

 

[Devil's Elbow]

This version would actually put Redoute only 17 km from the finish. It wouldn't be much more different than today where RaF is 13 km from the finish. You could add Colonster after RaF like someone suggested in the Van Aert thread last week, and RaF would be further awaw from the finish.

It would be different, because you have both the uncategorised hill to Hornay and Forges after Redoute rather than a mostly downhill route, plus the central section around Stavelot is both harder and closer to the finish. You could detour a bit into Liège, adding more easy climbs like the Amstel does with Bemelerberg, but I do think Redoute should be the final hard climb, the only question is whether you prioritise a longer finale after it, or try to facilitate attacks before it - this was obviously an attempt at the latter.

Colonster after RaF basically means admitting defeat and having the race be a two-climb affair every year. Would still be better than what we have now but certainly not the best you can get out of a redesign, even if you don't believe action prior to Redoute/RaF/whichever is your final hard hill is possible.

 

[Big Doopie]

Lol at everyone saying the chasers did not try hard enough. Lol and lol again.

If you do not put Remco in the red on the steeper gradients his signature move is to go on the shallower slopes when everyone else is recovering.

They tried to go with and failed.

They got closer when they started attacking. But they were going into the red while Remco simply stayed his course and so could recover.

Had Ala been with the chasers, imagine how stalled it would have been. Remco would have won easier.

Give credit where it is due. He rode the group of favorites off his wheel and pulled away from a group containing teams that had several riders.

Remco is one of the most exciting riders of this generation hands down.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Redoute is the only place in monuments more overrated than the Cipressa.

Evenepoel is the new Gabriele Colombo

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Congrats to Evenepoel on his great victory, first monument. The Bullet Man strikes! He attacked very hard at the end of a climb where gradients were shallower (his speciallity maybe?). He quickly gained about 30 seconds (doing some crazy watts for a few minutes) and then TT-ed his way to the finish like a bullet.