114th Il Lombardia (1.UWT) // 15th of August 2020

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I could see Bird being around last year's spring level. But I think there's several guys who can be that level or beat it in specific races. I heavily favor Roglic over him in races like FW and Emilia, while I still think I favor 2017 Nibali in one day races with bigger climbs like Il Lombardia. I'll give it to him on AGR and SB though. That's a mix I don't really fancy many riders for.

As for this year's SB, he was actually there so it was good but not the Bird of last year probably. Also riding SB probably didn't help in Poland if you see how a guy like Alaphilippe imploded in the Dauphine after SB +MSR.
 
Nibali still has a chance for his Olympic Gold next year. Also for WC this year if they find a new route. Gilbert doesn't stand a chance in MSR. Sagan I still think will win it one day.
Valverde is a tricy one. I think we should wait a couple of months to see if he still has it. If he bounces back he can win Lombardia next year.
Valverde has said he's feeling his age more and more and he probably won't race after 2021. I'm not even sure he'll ride another Lombardia. Anyway he's bottled his best chances there. It never had the significance the Worlds did for him. It's probably more similar to winning Liege for Nibali, and I think for him not winning a WC or OG would be the only one that stung.
 
People really understimate Fuglsang because of his crack in Strade and his lost to Evenepoel in Pologne, but his shape is insane at this moment(comparable to the one he had last year in Ardennes) and I'm not sure that many riders could've beat him. Who do you think cand drop him on Civiglio or San Fermo? Probably, no one. Yes, sure he has a worst sprint than the likes of Valverde, Roglic or Pinot but on these climbs he's as good as them and once you're in the final anything can happen.
The problem is that we don't know how really good he is right now. We can't compare him to top guys, cause they're all in France. The only guy apart from Tour guys who was in top shape crashed earlier.
 
I considered that flat. If they'd done 10km extra at 50kmh it would barely make a difference. It would still be under 42 average. Similarly, slow climbing times on Sormano and Civiglio hardly make a difference either. You lose less than 2 minutes total. Probably around a minute max cause riders won't do Sormano records and Civiglio are unlikely to be ridden in the same race.

For reference, Giro del'Emilia (roughly the same field) had a lower average speed than previous years, a shorter race, and okay climbing time for the winner, and huge gaps behind. About 17s slower than Roglic. The overall fitness level of the peloton is really low.

And recovery after 120 kms with 2 cat 3 climbs? Okay.

What's more plausible? A worldwide epidemic, 5 months of no racing and like 6 days of max racing in preperation have led to a lower fitness levels in the peloton

OR

A really poorly prepared peloton has the best performance the race has seen this decade, based on a 0.3km/h difference in average speed which perfectly explains 6 minutes difference between the winner and 10th place. Gaps which are so big half the bottom half of the top 10 have a lower average speed than last year.
Hard to take your arguments seriously like this. It doesn't really fit the narrative so let's pretend it doesn't matter.
It makes an obvious difference, the average would be 41.98 km/h. It's a difference of 0.35km/h on top of the already faster pace compared to previous editions. If you caculate the time difference compared to this year's edition, you would get a time difference of roughly 3 minutes on this year's edition. And over 5 and a half minutes compared to last year.

You also didn't consider that 12k of flat removes nearly 15 minutes of relative recovery. Ah, right, doesn't fit the narrative, a hard pace on cat 3 climbs doesn't matter. You also didn't consider the fact that due to the hard pace before the Sormano, the group this year going into the final, was a lot smaller than last year, meaning either a slower time or more fatigue (or both) in the final.

And we will. Roglic and Valverde from last year were in fantastic shape.
Roglic was in such fantastic shape, that less than two weeks before, he lost 2 minutes in a 50k timetrial on a 19 year old, and finished outside the top 10, in a discipline he had dominated the rest of the year.
 
Roglic was in such fantastic shape, that less than two weeks before, he lost 2 minutes in a 50k timetrial on a 19 year old, and finished outside the top 10, in a discipline he had dominated the rest of the year.
Did you watched Italian fall classics last year? Vuelta ring any bells? Do you think that maybe after his Vuelta win, first thing on Roglic's mind wasn't WC ITT? Maybe he needed some rest before he starts training again, cause obviously that was the case looking at his form in races that comes after.That didn't crossed your mind? I guess logic wasn't your friend back then.. :rolleyes:

If you don't believe me, maybe you will want to listen to this guy:
"If you come out of Vuelta feeling good, you recover, and then you can almost play with your rivals in these last races of the season. I can see that both Valverde and Roglic have that feeling, they're floating and are strong even though it's October."

12.09.2019, Vincenzo Nibali.
 
Did you watched Italian fall classics last year? Vuelta ring any bells? Do you think that maybe after his Vuelta win, first thing on Roglic's mind wasn't WC ITT? Maybe he needed some rest before he starts training again, cause obviously that was the case looking at his form in races that comes after.That didn't crossed your mind? I guess logic wasn't your friend back then.. :rolleyes:

If you don't believe me, maybe you will want to listen to this guy:
"If you come out of Vuelta feeling good, you recover, and then you can almost play with your rivals in these last races of the season. I can see that both Valverde and Roglic have that feeling, they're floating and are strong even though it's October."

12.09.2019, Vincenzo Nibali.
Your form doesn't spike like that on a matter of weeks, whatever you chose to believe. You could argue he took it easy during the WCC, which would make completely no sense, because then you wouldn't even participate as one of the top ITT'ers of the moment and just do some training instead. We are talking about a 1 hour effort, not a 7 hour mountain stage.
 
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It is commonly known that form from the end of La Vuelta to Il Lombardia goes in a straight line and it is physically impossible to simply do a bad ITT in between.
In a timespan of 20 days, he went from winning the Vuelta, to making an ass of himself in the WCC ITT compared to guys who peaked for the WCC, to winning Emilia. But according to you, he simply had a bad day during the WCC. The fact that he even finished behind Campenaerts, who crashed twice and had an extra mechanical on top of that, and whom he beat throughout the entire year, had nothing to do with Campenaerts (and Dennis, Evenepoel...) being more fresh than him? That last sentence ended with a question mark, but no answer needed.
 
In a timespan of 20 days, he went from winning the Vuelta, to making an ass of himself in the WCC ITT compared to guys who peaked for the WCC, to winning Emilia. But according to you, he simply had a bad day during the WCC. The fact that he even finished behind Campenaerts, who crashed twice and had an extra mechanical on top of that, and whom he beat throughout the entire year, had nothing to do with Campenaerts (and Dennis, Evenepoel...) being more fresh than him? That last sentence ended with a question mark, but no answer needed.
Okay.

You think he was worse in Emilia than at the Worlds ITT?
 
Reactions: Blanco
Okay.

You think he was worse in Emilia than at the Worlds ITT?
No, that's not what i said, and that wasn't the point i was making either.

The point i was making was, that the guys riding Lombardia in previous years at the end of the season, are not at the top of their game anymore due to fatigue. Hence the "lesser gods" for whom Lombardia was a real goal this year, and who came in "fresh" with Covid-19 circumstances this year, reached a level that was not lower than that of previous years, when more of the heavy hitters were there. And that a lot of the explanations you have been bringing forth to state the opposite, are simply caused by the fact that DQT put on a killer pace early in the race. Breaking open the race early, wearing everybody down, forming a small group of favorites in the final, time gaps in the top 10. The fact that the race was even faster (instead of slower) regardless of the heat, basically confirms this. My conclusion is that there were less favorites this year, but those that were there, did not perform worse than the likes of Roglic, Bernal etc, last year, for reasons stated above. It also explains MVDP in the top 10... 6 minutes down.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
So i ran some numbers, this is the average speeds I get for the race.
����������
1​
FUGLSANG Jakob
41,63412​
2​
BENNETT George
41,56961​
3​
VLASOV Aleksandr
41,52809​
4​
MOLLEMA Bauke
41,4701​
5​
CICCONE Giulio
41,42672​
6​
NIBALI Vincenzo
41,19891​
7​
SCHACHMANN Maximilian
41,07681​
8​
ULISSI Diego
40,97763​
9​
HERMANS Ben
40,89702​
10​
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
40,84078​
Nibali rode much faster this year than in both editions he won.
 
So i ran some numbers, this is the average speeds I get for the race.
����������
1​
FUGLSANG Jakob
41,63412​
2​
BENNETT George
41,56961​
3​
VLASOV Aleksandr
41,52809​
4​
MOLLEMA Bauke
41,4701​
5​
CICCONE Giulio
41,42672​
6​
NIBALI Vincenzo
41,19891​
7​
SCHACHMANN Maximilian
41,07681​
8​
ULISSI Diego
40,97763​
9​
HERMANS Ben
40,89702​
10​
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
40,84078​
You show great confidence in the timing and/or measurement of the distance of the race if you think speed to 7 significant figures is appropriate. Do you really think the course is accurate to within 10cm, or the time to 1/100 second?
 
Reactions: tobydawq
Huh that links to the interview after last years Lombardia.
Crikey, so it does, sorry about that - I grabbed the first article I could see - !!
Here - from Trek's website:

So - he had cramps last year too it seems.
 
Reactions: Red Rick
This whole debate on how fast the race was, is odd to me, as I do not believe you can compare this years race to any other year in recent memory.

First of all, normally at Il Lombardia, most of the riders are pretty much close to empty after a long season - not in peak condition like in this corona year.

Secondly, as Il Lombardia is normally in the middle of October, it is in significantly colder and wetter conditions, with damp fall leaves all over the roads (on a route with a lot of descending and small windy roads).

Of course this years race was fast.
 
Jan 18, 2020
55
37
230
Good points about the wet potentially slowing down the descents and not being able to compare two races given all the variables. That said, the research/science is very clear that heat (as opposed to cooler temps) is going to slow down performance in endurance sports - and in a bike race you are definitely going to climb slower. Not sure what the temps were at Lombardia, but you're literally looking at 10% less performance/speed in hot temps vs. cooler - especially at the low speeds on very steep climbs.
 
Good points about the wet potentially slowing down the descents and not being able to compare two races given all the variables. That said, the research/science is very clear that heat (as opposed to cooler temps) is going to slow down performance in endurance sports - and in a bike race you are definitely going to climb slower. Not sure what the temps were at Lombardia, but you're literally looking at 10% less performance/speed in hot temps vs. cooler - especially at the low speeds on very steep climbs.
You forgot the first - and most important - argument = Season end vs season peak ;)
 

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