2010 Giro d'Italia... Who will win?

[Winterfold]

Gibo is not a contender - but if he is in with a shout on the Zoncolan - which riders are too miserly to give him the win?

I guess it depends on if they are a nobody/GC contender/have any class.

I would love to see a canny ride by the eventual pink jersey who works with Gibo on the Zoncolan, gifts the stage, then gets the GC.

But that may be too much to wish for...

On the other hand if Sastra and Gibo go clear early in the climb, I may get my wish...

Dreams. I love the Giro, it is so epic. So what if the field is 'weak' - the parcours is the toughest and it shows who the riders with cojones are, the ones who enter. Alberto knows this, and this is why he will try to win Giro and Tour next year.

 

[Sasquatch]

Top 10

1. Cadel Evans (BMC)
Less than a minute
2. Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team)
A couple of minutes:
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)
A couple of minutes:
4. Stefano Garzelli (Aqua e Sapone)
5. Marzio Bruseghin (Caisse d'Epargne)
6. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas)
7. Ivan Basso (Liquigas)
8. Domenico Pozzovivo (Colnago-CSF Inox)
9. Michele Scarponi (Androni Giocattoli)
10. Eros Capecchi (Footon-Servetto) - watch out for this guy. He's going to have a strong Giro.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Don't understand why Sastre only has 16% of the vote. That maybe due to pellizotti but with his strong climbing team and the course suiting him where will his fall down be for those who have voted for evans or vino?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Don't know why it is, but I'm struggling to raise my usual enthusiasm for the best big one of the year.
I don't think it's so much the contenders, as the support riders and certain teams who are California bound.
There just isn't any strength in depth.
Big mistake to omit ISD, to, IMO.

Still, I'm sure I'll come around, once we can no longer see to the horizon.


Others worth a mention: Arroyo, Uran, Karpets...

 

[Ferminal]

Don't know why it is, but I'm struggling to raise my usual enthusiasm for the best big one of the year.
I don't think it's so much the contenders, as the support riders and certain teams who are California bound.
There just isn't any strength in depth.
Big mistake to omit ISD, to, IMO.

Still, I'm sure I'll come around, once we can no longer see to the horizon.


Others worth a mention: Arroyo, Uran, Karpets...

I give you until this time next week...

 

[Steampunk]

I would love to see a canny ride by the eventual pink jersey who works with Gibo on the Zoncolan, gifts the stage, then gets the GC.

But that may be too much to wish for...

On the other hand if Sastra and Gibo go clear early in the climb, I may get my wish...

That would be very, very cool.

 

[staubsauger]

if you ask me, zomegan could bit himself in his *** now that he didn't invite il cobra. something is missing without ricco

 

[auscyclefan94]

evans $2.70
sastre $5.50
basso $7
Vinokourov $10
Nibali $19

 

[karlboss]

Anyone else notice the participants by nation...14 aussies, 3rd behind the italians and the french, despite there being no aussie team. If only Australians were interested and had a sponsor...pick your 9 from these guys and its a very solid team.

 

[Ferminal]

Anyone else notice the participants by nation...14 aussies, 3rd behind the italians and the french, despite there being no aussie team. If only Australians were interested and had a sponsor...pick your 9 from these guys and its a very solid team.

Evans
Wurf
Meyer
Lloyd
Hansen
Roberts
Porte
McEwen
Goss/Sutton/Hayman

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Hours from the start...

I'm going to agree with auscyclefan94. I think Sastre is the overlooked racer here. The course really suits him, especially if he's within striking distance on Stage 20. That day suits him perfectly. If he really is focused on winning the Giro, of course.

On the flip side, I think that same stage will do Vino in. His Achilles heel has always been big climbs over 2,000m high. And this stage is all about that.

Evans should do well, of course, and I'd be okay to see him win, showing that jersey well.

Would love to see Gibo win on Zoncolon (again!) I think we all would.

Garzelli is indeed a dark horse. Would be fun to see him on the podium.

 

[BroDeal]

I am picking Evans. Although I cannot shake the feeling that he will manage to screw it up somehow.

 

[Anonymous]

I am going with Evans even though when I did the poll, I chose Vino.(a couple of weeks ago) I think Vino will crack when the going gets too steep. Evans won't.

 

[Ferminal]

Hours from the start...

I'm going to agree with auscyclefan94. I think Sastre is the overlooked racer here. The course really suits him, especially if he's within striking distance on Stage 20. That day suits him perfectly. If he really is focused on winning the Giro, of course.

What usually happens on Gavia? You think it could be Evans/Sastre's "Alpe d'Huez"?

 

[Notso Swift]

I agree, I said earlier that I picked Evens from Nationalistic pride, but Sastre has the team and the climbing skills to make up for the lost time in the TT,'s after all, one of those is up hill anyway and one is a team event, so Evans gaining a minute could easily see 5 lost

 

[auscyclefan94]

Hours from the start...

I'm going to agree with auscyclefan94. I think Sastre is the overlooked racer here. The course really suits him, especially if he's within striking distance on Stage 20. That day suits him perfectly. If he really is focused on winning the Giro, of course.

On the flip side, I think that same stage will do Vino in. His Achilles heel has always been big climbs over 2,000m high. And this stage is all about that.

Evans should do well, of course, and I'd be okay to see him win, showing that jersey well.

Would love to see Gibo win on Zoncolon (again!) I think we all would.

Garzelli is indeed a dark horse. Would be fun to see him on the podium.

Thanks, I think evans can win in a tight one but it is a sastre course.
People are comparing he and sastre's duel at 08 tour to the giro but sastre does not have the saxo team card to play to wear evans down. I think evans if he comes 2nd, it won't be by very much. I think he has focused more on climbing because the lack of it in the giro so he has focused more on climbing.

Yes last years ttt is different to this years, liquigas and cervelo only came 8th and 11th which isn't really that impressive. BMC spent a whole day practising over that course and I am thinking (and praying) that they won't lose too much. Sastre may be a bit vulnerable on Monte terminillo as he doesn't have much racing in him so the first week he may be a bit rusty. He also may lose a bit in the opening tt as well. Sastre's strong climbing team is very good though.

On the Cn podcast they made two good points
1/ Sastre can be vulnerable after rest days.
2/ The Monte Grappa stage could be more descisive than everyone thinks as it is like 18km at 8%.

 

[Ferminal]

2/ The Monte Grappa stage could be more descisive than everyone thinks as it is like 18km at 8%.

It will take a brave man to try and get ahead off Grappa and then stay out the front on the descent... Knowing that the next day is Zoncolan.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It will take a brave man to try and get ahead off Grappa and then stay out the front on the descent... Knowing that the next day is Zoncolan.

Yes, but their are other stages where people are going to have to do something as their are other mountain stages that are back to back. The last time the zoncolan was used i think the gaps were nullified. The top 6 where in by less than a minute.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Matt White's interesting comments who supposedly doesn't like evans.

''Cadel can win the Giro as well. The problem for Cadel is that he will lose three minutes in the team time trial. They [BMC] are a pretty average team.

''They are on a short end of a hiding. He is going to be behind the eight ball from the start which is something he is probably used to doing, really. If he loses two or two-and-half minutes to Basso and Vinokourov on stage four, he is going to be playing catch-up.''

There are also two time trials - a 12.9km mountain ride from San Vigilio to Plan de Corones on stage 16, and another one on stage 21 in Verona. ''The climbs decide themselves and teams like Liquigas are predicable in Italy,'' White said. ''If Cadel rides intelligently, even with the team he has here, he can still podium; if not win the Giro.''

 

[Sasquatch]

Evans won't lose as much time in the TTT as people are saying IMO.

BMC will surprise.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Evans won't lose as much time in the TTT as people are saying IMO.

BMC will surprise.

I think they will struggle. Evans will certainly lose time anyhow.
His team will be no where come week 3.

 

[Sasquatch]

Updated and Final Predictions.

1. Carlos Sastre (Cervelo Test Team)
2. Cadel Evans (BMC)
3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)
4. Domenic Pozzovivo (Colnago)
5. Stefano Garzelli (Aqua e Sapone)
6. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas)
7. Ivan Basso (Liquigas)
8. Marzio Bruseghin (Caisse d'Epargne)
9. Michele Scarponi (Adnroni Giocattolli)
10. Vladimir Karpets (Katusha)
11. Eros Capecchi (Footon-Servetto)
12. David Moncoutie (Cofidis)
13. Jose Serpa (Adnroni Giocattolli)
14. Giampaolo Caruso (Katusha)
15. Gilberto Simoni (Lampre)
16. Francesco Masciarelli (Aqua a Sapone)
17. Marco Pinotti (HTC-Columbia)
18. Rigoberto Uran (Caisse d'Epargne)
19. Xavier Tondo (Cervelo Test Team)
20. Daniel Moreno (Omega Pharma-Lotto)

Points Classification: Andre Greipel (HTC-Columbia)
Young Rider Classification: Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas)
Teams Classification: (Liquigas)
King Of the Mountains Classification: Morris Possoni (Sky) or Damiano Cunego (Lampre) or Gilberto Simoni (Lampre) or David Moncoutie (Cofidis)

 

[joy118118]

Young Rider Classification: Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas)

Isnt Nibali too old for Young Rider Classification

 

[joy118118]

Young Rider Classification: Vincenzo Nibali

In 2008 AC didnt win it. He was born in 1982.
Nibali was born in 1984. And now is 2010. has the rules of Young Rider Classification changed?

 

[Francois the Postman]

After losing my pick for the Giro, and far too much potential entertainment with it, I've been trying to convince myself that Garzelli could surprise, so I would have a darker horse to back than one of the obvious 2.

But I just can't make a mental leap that far, ongoing efforts notwithstanding.

Going with

1. Sastre
2. Evans
3. Garzelli

4. Pozzovivo
5. Vino

Think it will be dead close between Sastre and Evans, so I'm giving it to a Sastre who hasn't convinced me over an Evans who has, based on team strength and likely ability to carry reasonable form into week 3, when the stakes will be driven through the hearts.

Still kinda hoping a great escape will catapult one of the less obvious names into the mix, but judge that to be as likely as Vino sailing through very very thin air.

Hours away from the most delicious GT of the year (although I am praying that for once the TdF will run away with that crown this year). With a lesser field than I hoped for, but a wicked parcours to make up for it. Hopefully Vino will set off some fireworks and ride himself into a position where the favourite 2 at least need to worry about him not having a bad day in the really high stuff.

Fridge is stocked, work rescheduled to clear race time slots. Bring it on!