2010 Giro d'Italia... Who will win?

[sportzchick]

why is that the case, has the Giro lost the ablitly to attract the best riders or is it more than that?

 

[Jamsque]

I honestly don't get what you guys are complaining about. Three former Giro winners, a former Vuelta winner, a former Tour de France winner, and a world champion isn't enough? Honestly I am ecstatic that AC is not racing, it means me might have a race with more than one person competing for the victory, and besides him the only major international stage race contenders who are missing are Schleck Major and Schleck Minor.

OK, it's a little light on sprinters (no Hushovd, no Cav, no Friere, no Boonen), but there are still some world class fast men going.

[edit]I forgot Garzelli, that's four former Giro winners.

 

[ak-zaaf]

I honestly don't get what you guys are complaining about. Three former Giro winners, a former Vuelta winner, a former Tour de France winner, and a world champion isn't enough? Honestly I am ecstatic that AC is not racing, it means me might have a race with more than one person competing for the victory, and besides him the only major international stage race contenders who are missing are Schleck Major and Schleck Minor.

OK, it's a little light on sprinters, but there are still some world class fast men going.

We miss the best sprinter, last years TDF podium, last years initial Giro podium, F Schleck, Valverde, Sammie Sanchez, Gesink, Wiggins is just training, Nibali wasn't expecting to race....

I'm not complaining cause it will prolly give an exciting race and Vino counts for 10, but there are a lot of good guys missing.

 

[Jamsque]

We can't have every stage racer at every grand tour. The field for the race is plenty strong, I think it's going to be an exciting race, probably more exciting than the TdF unless Contador gets hit by a meteorite between now and then.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Apart from 6/7 guys the field really is not that strong, but hey, it might make for interesting racing yes. I'm just rather seen some more top riders here. We've been spoilt the last few years with big names riding the Giro, now i'ts a bit less.

 

[Escarabajo]

We miss the best sprinter, last years TDF podium, last years initial Giro podium, F Schleck, Valverde, Sammie Sanchez, Gesink, Wiggins is just training, Nibali wasn't expecting to race....

I'm not complaining cause it will prolly give an exciting race and Vino counts for 10, but there are a lot of good guys missing.

-1.

Apart from Contador and Schleck, that's it. Maybe Menchov also but can not give you anymore. Di Luca and Pellizotti are out on doping related issues. Valverde is banned on Italy. Gesink and Samuel Sanchez, let's get real.

 

[jaylew]

We miss the best sprinter, last years TDF podium, last years initial Giro podium, F Schleck, Valverde, Sammie Sanchez, Gesink, Wiggins is just training, Nibali wasn't expecting to race....

I'm not complaining cause it will prolly give an exciting race and Vino counts for 10, but there are a lot of good guys missing.

And that's not even including the RS crew, Ricco and an interesting wildcard like Soler, Sella, Rujano, or Mosquera (maybe Pozzo or an Androni rider will play that role)
When this thread first started I looked at the poll list and just couldn't get excited about it - Basso, Garzelli, Simoni, Cunego....I don't know, just seems a little stale to me. At least Evans has decided to give it a go and Vino's suspension has ended. Otherwise it would be a really "eh" lineup. Glad to see Nibali added as well, though it was at the cost of another GC guy.

It's still a GT though, so it will be fun and I bet the racing will turn out to be really exciting.

 

[theyoungest]

-1.

Apart from Contador and Schleck, that's it. Maybe Menchov also but can not give you anymore. Di Luca and Pellizotti are out on doping related issues. Valverde is banned on Italy. Gesink and Samuel Sanchez, let's get real.

What? The field wouldn't have been stronger with them being there? Of course it would.

 

[ludwig]

Hard Call.....

Yikes guys, I'm having a heck of a time choosing between Evans and Basso.... Evans is looking hella good but this course seems perfect for Basso.

Anybody who's been following the results closely got some insight on who is more likely to win?

Gonna check out the latest odds see what the oddsmakers are thinking.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Yikes guys, I'm having a heck of a time choosing between Evans and Basso.... Evans is looking hella good but this course seems perfect for Basso.

Anybody who's been following the results closely got some insight on who is more likely to win?

Gonna check out the latest odds see what the oddsmakers are thinking.

Sastre

At least they all look excited

 

[ludwig]

Ok i found these....

2.50 Cadel Evans 6/4 13/8 11/8 17/10 11/8 28/17 13/8 6/4 33/20
5.75 Ivan Basso Ivan Basso 19/4 5/2 4 10/3 4 5/2 3 3 41/10
6.50 Carlos Sastre Carlos Sastre 17/4 5 9/2 5 9/2 11/2 11/2 5 11/2
10.00 Alexandre Vinokourov Alexandre Vinokourov 15/2 8 9 15/2 9 9 9 8 9
26.00 Michele Scarponi Michele Scarponi 18 20 22 17 22 13 18 25 81/5
34.00 Bradley Wiggins Bradley Wiggins 25 25 33 25 33 29 25 20 19
34.00 Stefano Garzelli Stefano Garzelli 28 28 33 25 33 24 28 25 31
34.00 Damiano Cunego Damiano Cunego 33 18 25 20 25 24 22 13 33
51.00 Xavier Tondo Xavier Tondo 50 40 40 45 40 29 40 25 94
67.00 Domenico Pozzovivo Domenico Pozzovivo 33 50 66 45 66 49 50 25 389/100
67.00 Christian Vandevelde Christian Vandevelde 50 66 66 55 66 49 66 50 51

Once again Evans the heavy favorite....

I'm inclined to name Evans the favorite, but SUCH a heavy favorite over Basso and Vino....not sure i see why. I must not be aware of something. Will Basso hold back to protect his team or something?

 

[Barrus]

Nibali has no odds at all?

 

[syringelessss]

Who Will Win the Giro???

Ricco - never mind, not invited
Valverde - never mind, soon to be suspended internationally and intergalactically
Rasmussen - never mind, still banned

That leaves Vinokourov or Astana Rider X.

Recent performances suggest the entire Astana squad is on what I will call Ricco-Juice, or perhaps El Pistolero Elixir, so any one of the Astana riders could win.

But I'll lay my devaluing Euros on Vinokourov, who last week at Liege-Bastogne-Liege (aka EPO-CERA-EPO) rode away from a weak, second class, almost amateur chaser group that included Phillipe Gilbert, Valverde and Evans......

 

[Escarabajo]

Found this in Unibet.

Win (1-3)
Evans, C 2.50 1.35
Basso, I 6.00 2.20
Sastre, C 6.00 2.20
Vinokourov, A 7.00 2.30
Nibali, V 18.00 4.75
Scarponi, M 20.00 5.25
Pozzovivo, D 22.00 5.50
Cunego, D 25.00 6.00
Wiggins, B 28.00 7.00
Tondo, X 30.00 8.00
Garzelli, S 30.00 8.00
Rujano, J 35.00 9.25
Bruseghin, M 45.00 11.00
Karpets, V 55.00 12.00
Vandevelde, C 55.00 12.00
Monfort, M 65.00 16.00
Caruso, G 65.00 16.00
Gerdemann, L 65.00 16.00
Kiserlovski, R 80.00 18.00
Simoni, G 80.00 18.00
Arroyo Duran, D 100.0 25.00
Serpa, J 150.0 35.00
Szmyd, S 150.0 35.00
Uran, R 150.0 35.00
Masciarelli, F 150.0 35.00
Tiralongo, P 200.0 45.00
Millar, D 250.0 55.00
Gadret, J 250.0 55.00
Bertagnolli, L 250.0 55.00
Martin, Daniel 250.0 55.00
Efimkin, A 300.0 65.00

Is Rujano racing?

Why is Wiggans so high?

 

[Jamsque]

Wiggin's isn't that high, he's well behind all the real favourites.

 

[tgsgirl]

That's some odds they have for Monfort, who isn't racing.

 

[luckyboy]

Why is Millar even on there?

 

[staubsauger]

now as pelli is gone away i really think garzelli could win this. in last years form he has perfect chances if he's not going to lose to much time to basso or sastre in the ttt. evans sastre and basso are not the powerful attackers that could bring him into big problems in the mountains if he's in perfect form and after last year i think he might be the favourite to win the plan de corones tt.

the big question for me is in which form gibo is. he has shown nothing at trentino , but so did pellizotti and sastre hasn't done much more racing than he, too. evans and vino form was very very early just remember how di luca struggeled after his perfect spring 2005 in the last week or cunego after his perfect tdr in the same year. if gibo suprisingly is able to come back in his 2008 form without this ****ing one bad day, than but only than he will beat sastre and evans. but i don't think he would be able to wouldn't he?

but otherwise, this could become giro 2003 revival party just without popo^^

 

[ludwig]

Yeah, everyone assumes Garzelli is past his prime etc (and he likely is), but hell he's been riding great all year. He won Tirenno, and his recent form is excellent too. And he was Top 5 last year. With this year's field, Garzelli is a serious dark horse. Bruseghin is another old guy who might make an impact, but he's at a disadvantage without a long TT.

Gibo on the other hand is not a contender...this is just a last hurrah for the fans. Or so it seems.

So Basso is claiming his form isn't quite there...not sure I buy that tbh. Besides, being not quite ready at this point is not necessarily a disaster...it could also be argued that winning Fleche demonstrated Evans' form peaked too early and he may not be able to hold it through to early June.

 

[issoisso]

Why is Millar even on there?

Don't know where those odds are from, but I'd say....


The same reason a lot of british betting houses took bets on Cavendish last year:

People who don't know the sport, but know a certain name and therefore will bet on that name.
And the betting houses will rake in the cash for bets that will never in a million years cash in

 

[Mellow Velo]

They all look like Pat is telling them the results of their latest bio passports tests.

 

[The Sheep]

They all look like Pat is telling them the results of their latest bio passports tests.

Evans has eyed the journo that stepped on his dog.

 

[auscyclefan94]

damn I was just about to post the pics...
anyway if anyone is interested in naked dudes they could just go on chatroulette.

on topic, man what a lousy start field this giro.

Yes it may be a "lesser" of a field than other years but wouldn't this cause riders to take a chance and go for glory a bit more? Wouldn't it cause more attacking racing?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeah, everyone assumes Garzelli is past his prime etc (and he likely is), but hell he's been riding great all year. He won Tirenno, and his recent form is excellent too. And he was Top 5 last year. With this year's field, Garzelli is a serious dark horse. Bruseghin is another old guy who might make an impact, but he's at a disadvantage without a long TT.

Gibo on the other hand is not a contender...this is just a last hurrah for the fans. Or so it seems.

So Basso is claiming his form isn't quite there...not sure I buy that tbh. Besides, being not quite ready at this point is not necessarily a disaster...it could also be argued that winning Fleche demonstrated Evans' form peaked too early and he may not be able to hold it through to early June.

ON the recent Cn article evans says

"Doing two Grand Tours in 2007 and 2009 worked for me," he said, hinting at his second place in the Tour de France and fourth in the Vuelta Espana and overall victory in the UCI ProTour in 2007 as well as his strong end of season in 2009.

"I'm not going to the Giro to train, I think racing at the front is as good as training. I'm going to try and do as good a Giro as I can.

"I can hold my form for a long period of time and I know I can recover from one and build up for a second one. It might not work but looking at things logically, there's no reason why I can’t peak again at the Tour de France, even if it goes against more conventional thinking."

I do agree that Garzeli could be a thereat. What will his team be like for the ttt?

 

[frankdstrack]

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