2010 Vuelta a Murcia 3rd-7th March

[Mellow Velo]

Got a friend who was in the finishing town.
Apparently, the place was crawling with garda; far more than were present for La Vuelta, even though its a small stager, with a tight budget.
Money for extra policing means no money for flying and therefore getting a live race feed.

Now, why would they require all this extra policing?

 

[kurtinsc]

What would be more revealing...

Wiggins finishing ahead of Lance in the TT...

Or the opposite?

Wiggins was solidly better then Lance against the clock last year... but Lance did better then Wiggins on average in the mountains (Wiggins better on Verbier, Lance better on Grand Bornand and Ventoux). Lance was 18 seconds slower then Wiggins in the 15.5 km stage 1 and 47 seconds slower in the 40.5 km stage 18.

I think Lance is hoping to improve his TT... but I bet he'd be pretty happy if he cut the time down to a half a second per KM instead of over a second per KM loss. If he only loses 10 seconds to Wiggins, he'll be pretty happy about the results I bet... because he probably feels he'll easily take what he might lose back in a big mountain stage to Wiggo.

 

[Frosty]

So there was a 5 second split at the front, though I didn't see any overall contenders in the front group.

Frantisek Rabon could be a contender if hes on the form he showed in the criterium international. Dont think he did that well in a race he was in last week though

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road.php?id=road/2009/mar09/critint09/critint093

But I did notice something about the main bunch, starting at position 23:



1) Wiggins isolated (no one from Sky in the front at all - next guy from Sky is at 3:39)
2) Armstrong right behind him, with two protectors, three if you count Zubeldia
3) Menchov in there, but with only one guy with him, though there were other Rabobanks in the front group and around.

Significant?

As far as I know, Wiggins had a wheel change, and the riders that where with him worked to get him back about 10k or so before the end and then dropped off.

Possoni finished by himself rather than with a group which suggests he did drop off the back late on. The next rider was 18 minutes down which is a lot of time to lose in 10k or so but maybe it was a bit further out.

 

[issoisso]

What would be more revealing...

Wiggins finishing ahead of Lance in the TT...

Or the opposite?

Wiggins was solidly better then Lance against the clock last year... but Lance did better then Wiggins on average in the mountains (Wiggins better on Verbier, Lance better on Grand Bornand and Ventoux). Lance was 18 seconds slower then Wiggins in the 15.5 km stage 1 and 47 seconds slower in the 40.5 km stage 18.

I think Lance is hoping to improve his TT... but I bet he'd be pretty happy if he cut the time down to a half a second per KM instead of over a second per KM loss. If he only loses 10 seconds to Wiggins, he'll be pretty happy about the results I bet... because he probably feels he'll easily take what he might lose back in a big mountain stage to Wiggo.

It's March and Wiggins' first race of the season. Either way the result won't mean a thing.

 

[Anonymous]

Possoni finished by himself rather than with a group which suggests he did drop off the back late on. The next rider was 18 minutes down which is a lot of time to lose in 10k or so but maybe it was a bit further out.

May have been only Possoni was with him, Russ was apparently still in the group until at least a third of the way up the final climb, SKy where working their butts off on the front of the peloton between the two climbs. My guess is the bulk of the team dropped off on the climb, and possoni dropped off after pacing brad.

 

[Moondance]

It's March and Wiggins' first race of the season. Either way the result won't mean a thing.

Wiggins rode in Quatar and Ruta del Sol

 

[Ninety5rpm]

May have been only Possoni was with him, Russ was apparently still in the group until at least a third of the way up the final climb, SKy where working their butts off on the front of the peloton between the two climbs. My guess is the bulk of the team dropped off on the climb, and possoni dropped off after pacing brad.

Shouldn't a strong/smart team be able to stay with the peloton even after an effort like that? I can't imagine all of Postal, Discovery, Astana or Shack drop back from the peloton (not an elite lead group) after delivering Lance after a mechanical.

 

[Andy99]

So there was a 5 second split at the front, though I didn't see any overall contenders in the front group. But I did notice something about the main bunch, starting at position 23:



1) Wiggins isolated (no one from Sky in the front at all - next guy from Sky is at 3:39)
2) Armstrong right behind him, with two protectors, three if you count Zubeldia
3) Menchov in there, but with only one guy with him, though there were other Rabobanks in the front group and around.

Significant?

Possibly. Team Tandy certainly appear strong.

Should be an interesting last few stages. As Dim stated though, as far as I know SKY were preoccupied with towing Brad up following a puncture - so probably can't read too much into it.

 

[Andy99]

Shouldn't a strong/smart team be able to stay with the peloton even after an effort like that? I can't imagine all of Postal, Discovery, Astana or Shack drop back from the peloton (not an elite lead group) after delivering Lance after a mechanical.

Probably so. Though who says they couldn't? it's not inconceiveble that they sat up out of choice to save themselves for the following days.

 

[Mellow Velo]

It's March and Wiggins' first race of the season. Either way the result won't mean a thing.

Exactly.
We all know that Armstrong in the Spring, don't mean a thing.
He always comes back for the Summer, refreshed from his very lengthy break from riding competitively.
Amazing what a good break can do for the body and I'm sure many of us hope he has a better break, than last year.

 

[Anonymous]

Probably so. Though who says they couldn't? it's not inconceiveble that they sat up out of choice to save themselves for the following days.

They also did a lot of the work in bringing back the breakaway.

Of course, Brad may have said on the climb, I feel good guys, send one guy with me (possoni) the rest of you rest up and save yourself.

Not every team leader lacks confidence and feels the need to be surrounded by eight of his team mates. Ive actually started to notice over the last few races, Sky do an awful lot of riding in pairs. Flecha with Hayman (think it was hayman) on saturday, Stannard and Downing were initially together on sunday before Stan made the break.

 

[van nelle]

Frantisek Rabon could be a contender if hes on the form he showed in the criterium international. Dont think he did that well in a race he was in last week thoughout.

Very good point about Rabon I did't see him there. He was strong in Algarve, 7. in GC I think.

 

[python]

andy99 fix your quotes

i noticed something strange. andy 99 is answering his own posts whilst quoting 95rpm with exactly the text he wrote in the previous post. no biggy but does not look good.

 

[ErmOkk]

If LA's position improved and he can put down power close to his younger years, he has a very good chance of beating Wiggins in the ITT. Maybe not now, but at the tour. He was dominant in the ITT's in his years, so my bets are that his performace will improve pretty well, again IF his position is a lot better than last year. Because come on, last year his position on the bike was pretty ****ed up :s.

A lot of big if's in my post though, because I don't know what those old bones will do.

 

[Andy99]

i noticed something strange. andy 99 is answering his own posts whilst quoting 95rpm with exactly the text he wrote in the previous post. no biggy but does not look good.

Are you seeing something different to me?

 

[python]

removed. visual mistake on my part. apologies to andy.

 

[Andy99]

i am seeing your posts 132 and 133 exactly the way i described - you confused quotes intentionally or not - but it appears you are talking with yourself there.

I can see what you're saying! Purely coincidence. Each post refers to the relevent quote from Ninety5rpm.

Sorry for any confusion caused

 

[Andy99]

removed. visual mistake on my part. apologies to andy.

no need to apologise - it's only a forum

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Probably so. Though who says they couldn't? it's not inconceiveble that they sat up out of choice to save themselves for the following days.

Not every team leader lacks confidence and feels the need to be surrounded by eight of his team mates.

Confidence in the uncontrollable is folly. Anything can happen in a bike race. It's a risk to leave the leader isolated. We'll see if they saved anything purposefully for tomorrow,

but I predict Wiggins will be isolated quickly there too, and may ultimately lose because of it.

 

[karlboss]

If LA's position improved and he can put down power close to his younger years, he has a very good chance of beating Wiggins in the ITT. Maybe not now, but at the tour. He was dominant in the ITT's in his years, so my bets are that his performace will improve pretty well, again IF his position is a lot better than last year. Because come on, last year his position on the bike was pretty ****ed up :s.

A lot of big if's in my post though, because I don't know what those old bones will do.

Lance always works hard on his position, he has tried being more aero and couldn't get the power down, then he started sacrificing his aero position for power. As near as I can tell, he always rode about the same pace, so maybe its just about being comortable.

 

[thehog]

Lance always works hard on his position, he has tried being more aero and couldn't get the power down, then he started sacrificing his aero position for power. As near as I can tell, he always rode about the same pace, so maybe its just about being comortable.

Thanks for that. That explains everything.

 

[stefrees]

Confidence in the uncontrollable is folly. Anything can happen in a bike race. It's a risk to leave the leader isolated. We'll see if they saved anything purposefully for tomorrow,

but I predict Wiggins will be isolated quickly there too, and may ultimately lose because of it.

i dont think its a case of wiggo being isolated, on the first climb a break of 11 went clear, with a garmin, rabo and 2 radioshack, sky missed out and had to bring it back, used up a lot of energy, and then there was also the puncture.

time will tell

 

[karlboss]

Thanks for that. That explains everything.

was a bit of a nothing post I'll admit, but then so is saying if lance can do what he could he would win, or ripping off a foreign language news article and claiming a scoop.

2005 position : http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/photos/2005/tour05/?id=tour051/cycling-tdf2005-itt-arms-62

compared to the winner that day http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/photos/2005/tour05/?id=tour051/JD05tdfstg1_zabriskie

Just to show he has always been high, though I note he has moved his arms further away from his body now

 

[thehog]

.....I note he has moved his arms further away from his body now

...to compensate for his expanding waistline.

 

[Winterfold]

here is a twitter update on the race http://twitter.com/raceticker

(apologies if that has already been posted)

Wiggins has been having a dig