2011 Tour de France Stage 18 - Pinerolo - Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km

[downtubeshifter]

I'm sure that anyone in the States relying on the Versus coverage is tired of the "Tommy Voeckler" song (Insurance commercial):

"I just want to be Ok, be Ok, be Ok. I just want to be Ok today.
I just want another day, another day, another day.
Another day and I will be Ok".

I think a break will stay away for the win, since we have not seen the desire of any of the top GC teams to toughen-up the early part of the stages. Leopard-Trek, BMC, Saxo and Liquigas have been content to let EuropCar assume control. If they wanted to push the fatigue, then the climb up Sestriere today should have been ridden at a higher tempo.

Break contenders: Hoogerland, Casar, Chavenel, Leipheimer, Van Garderen, Heysjadal, LL Sanchez, Roche, Paulhino, Flecha, anon. Euskatel, and anon. Saur. (Roy will be too tired). I'll go with Leipheimer for the win, for RS to salvage something from this tour. Also, Garmin will be trying to get 2 riders in the break for the team classification.

I don't think we'll see separation of the GC contenders until the Galibier.

Among the GC contenders, I'll guess:
1) Andy Schleck
2) Alberto Contador (only true champion in the bunch) +0:20
3) Group of Basso, Evans, and Frank Schleck. +0:45
4) Samu +1:20
5) Cunego, Danielson +2:30
6) Voeckler +3:50

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Okay, I'll ask you all to channel your inner Bjarne. Where does Contador attack to make time on this stage? (Assuming no major GC shake-ups in Stage 17... which is perhaps a big assumption after the action of Stage 16 earlier today).

Both Col Agnel and Col d'Izoard look tailor-made for one of Contador's patented blistering attacks when it starts ramping up 7-8k from the summit. Galibier, however, looks like a long slog more suited for the diesels, until it kicks up a bit in the last 4k or so.

Will Contador be able to wait for that last section of Galibier to attack, or will he have a go on one of the earlier climbs? If he goes early and gets a gap, he risks getting caught on the descent (Evans/Sanchez) or having the diesels (Evans/Basso) gradually reel him in on the long ascent of Galibier. If he waits until that last 4k, he risks making only minimal time gains on his rivals and perhaps leaving too much to regain in the last two stages.

I'm sure that Contador would prefer the order of the climbs were reversed on this stage, but as it is... where would you recommend he attack if you were his DS?

bjarne has no say. well, he does. but he doesn't. when conti feels like going, he will go.

i personally would love to see him ride off, floyd style on the agnel, taking only andy with him. then to watch them duke it out on the galibier. that would be the definition of epic.

 

[2wheels]

I look forward to seeing whether or not a break is allowed to go free before the sprint tomorrow. Lots of GC guys would love to have a helper up the road, but if the green jersey guys are controlling the first hour then it might not happen. One way or another, I see Voigt getting himself sent on ahead up the road-- and I hope he takes someone more useful than Gerley-mann with him this time!

 

[spanky wanderlust]

I really, really, really hate to say this, but Cadel is going to lose big time in tomorow's stage 18. The reason: Phil Liggett picked Cadel to do well over AC and AS. And we all know how well Phil picks 'em.

+1. cadel will lose big time here. but not because of anything phil said.

 

[Tuarts]

Nice intro but like the GC riders on the slopes.. you played cat and mouse with the pretenders avoiding giving us your prognostic for the winner among them tomorrow. So .. come on .. what's your favorite Tuarts? (and thanks for the intro BTW)

Haha, well you have to be as objective as possible when previewing/analysing. Can't exclude anyone.

Probably going for Cadel myself, being Aussie but don't really mind who wins, providing they dont act like Andy to win it and we see a good race

 

[Dedelou]

Haha, well you have to be as objective as possible when previewing/analysing. Can't exclude anyone.

Probably going for Cadel myself, being Aussie but don't really mind who wins, providing they dont act like Andy to win it and we see a good race

well, objectivity aside, I can respect a Cadel's pick. He is the one in front of all the others, (sorry but i don't see voekler hanging on after the first Agneli). All he has to do is follow the 5 others and he is good at doing that. My heart is for Contador. Not only because he is often the best but because having crashed the first day he was the underdog along with Samu

 

[rhubroma]

The profile suggests this could be an epic stage. The racing so far suggests otherwise. Let's hope the profile wins the battle this time!

Very well said. I share your sentiments, both in regards to the profile and the racing, though would only add that each wins out today.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I'm sure that anyone in the States relying on the Versus coverage is tired of the "Tommy Voeckler" song (Insurance commercial):

"I just want to be Ok, be Ok, be Ok. I just want to be Ok today.
I just want another day, another day, another day.
Another day and I will be Ok".

You (and me) been watching too much Versus. It gets annoying doesn't it.

2 MTFs so far, and both have been business as usual for the Tour. I don't know why I let myself get excited over days like this, knowing that I will probably be let down..

The profile suggests this could be an epic stage. The racing so far suggests otherwise. Let's hope the profile wins the battle this time!

Yeah, I have felt like Fermi says, but hope like Kjetil it does not become a DDSS (different day same sh**) stage. I'm thinking after tomorrow's stage the crystal ball will become much clearer.

 

[SirLes]

Further to my earlier prediction. I fully expect Jens and Canc to be hammering away at the front of the main group as they go up the Lautaret.

When I first heard they were finishing on the Galibier I assumed they would be going up the other side. That really would be cool. They could then have done the classic Briancon alpd'huez via galibier, croix de fer or glandon

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

skeptical to how decisive this will be.
so far the tour has been disappointing in the mountains.
Hopefully AC has good legs I guess.

--

Reagdring leopard, they have failed in the mountains so far, often having no team left at the start of the final climbs. Would be good if the race is ridden very hard tho.

Hopefully some of the super dom. can deliver.

 

[just some guy]

the most important person in the race today..............

which Szmyd will we get ?

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I too think this stage won't be that epic. As I said a few pages ago, I really think we'll see some 40 riders heading into the Galibier at the base. And the serious attacks won't start until less than 10km to go. Splits could be seconds, not minutes.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to see several riders attack on the Izoard and shatter the entire peloton, Hinault style, but I just don't see it.

 

[just some guy]

I too think this stage won't be that epic. As I said a few pages ago, I really think we'll see some 40 riders heading into the Galibier at the base. And the serious attacks won't start until less than 10km to go. Splits could be seconds, not minutes.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to see several riders attack on the Izoard and shatter the entire peloton, Hinault style, but I just don't see it.

I agree the run into Galiber is too long and if the man above your post is still there then he will turn screws for 10 km until there are the 6 left.

Contador, Evans, Fränk, Andy, Basso,Sammy

 

[rainman]

Me too. But I'm really worried the Schlecks are going to figure out a way to make it boring.

Its ok, I reprogrammed them last night - dont be boring, make a big mistake!

 

[Wallace]

the most important person in the race today..............

which Szmyd will we get ?

I really hope he's on form. As one of the many people who feel strongly that Y isn't really a vowel, the pleasure of seeing one of the very few athletes with an all-consonant last name lead the peloton in some way makes up for the very vowel-heavy names of his Italian squad.

 

[metya77]

Great Preview Tuarts!!! Thanks!!!
I can't wait this stage
This stage will be Superb!!

 

[NickBVK]

As one of the many people who feel strongly that Y isn't really a vowel, the pleasure of seeing one of the very few athletes with an all-consonant last name lead the peloton in some way makes up for the very vowel-heavy names of his Italian squad.

I am so glad I read this far into the thread just for this amazing post.

 

[Tuarts]

I really hope he's on form. As one of the many people who feel strongly that Y isn't really a vowel, the pleasure of seeing one of the very few athletes with an all-consonant last name lead the peloton in some way makes up for the very vowel-heavy names of his Italian squad.

Not to mention how similar it sounds to a certain English word.

"Oh Szymd! Slyvester's driving pace!"

 

[Cycling the Alps]

Col d'Agnel (2734m) Amazing!!

Direct link for 3D Tour:
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dagnel-tour-reverse
Direct link for Profile:
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dagnel-profile
Direct link for Streetview
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dagnel-streetview-reverse
Direct link for Game
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dagnel-game

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans to finish the stage with Contador today and everyone who continue to doubt how good a form he is in this tour to look more stupid than they already are.

That would be nice...

The thing is I'm not sure he will hang on. Looking through some of the photos from the stage, I can't help but start to see the fatigue creeping in on his face. Maybe it was just the heat of the day, but it look like he wasn't enjoying the final climb. I guess we will have a sense of things early tomorrow.

I expect fire works . . . early. The Schlecks don't have the luxury to wait until the final climb. Heck, neither does Alberto, Basso or Samu, or anyone else who desires to win the TdF. There is a going to be a ton of pressure on Cadel tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday. Surviving tomorrow is no guarantee that he will survive Friday. Or Saturday. But that's why we race the races. Anything can and will happen.

I didn't see that tbh. He looked like he normally does. He said he took it easy on the descent because he didn't want to risk things to muc and because he got caught behind Voeckler on the descent who went off the road twice.

 

[Cycling the Alps]

Col d'Izoard (2360m)

Direct link for 3D Tour:
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dizoard-tour-reverse
Direct link for Profile:
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dizoard-profile
Direct link for Streetview
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dizoard-streetview-reverse
Direct link for Streetview
http://www.cyclingthealps.com/#col-dizoard-game

 

[MartinGT]

Im excited and nervous as hell!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Im excited and nervous as hell!

That's my feelings! Watching the tour can make me a nervous wreck sometimes!

 

[Carstenbf]

After watching the last couple of days, you'd think it'd be inevitable that we'll see an early attack from AC, but from what I'm able to gather there will be a rather strong headwind on the Galibier. That could put a dampener on things I'm afraid. I fear we'll have to wait for the final 4-5 km's for the decisive attack.

But then again, AC and the Schlecks will have to put some time into Evans the next couple of days, and waiting for l'alpe seems a bit risky really. Perhaps we'll see a bunch of Trek and Saxo helpers go up the road early?

 

[MartinGT]

I think Bertie will wait until the final climb today. Unless he can get some allies for the penultimate climb to help him?