2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 11: Verín - Estación de Montaña Manzaneda 167,0 km (31/8)

[Midnightfright]

On paper it should be a safe climb for Wiggins, but I do worry that all that time away from racing will catch up with him at some point. Maybe it happened in the second half of the TT today.

i think its fairly obvious that Brad took it easy today to save his energy for Chris ' broom broom' Froome.

 

[weekend warrior]

Dan the man for me.

 

[Midnightfright]

Moncoutie or Taaramäe will surely be in the break to get the KOM points (looks like Taaramäe could be aiming for that if Moncoutie fails) and then the other one who didn't get in the break will launch an attack in the climb if the break fails.

Well they will both be desperate to get something from the Vuelta. I would expect at least 1 of them to try something.

 

[lancaster]

euskaltel and katusha need to cause some real problems for people at some stage in the next 10 days.

for the likes of rodriguez, scarponi, sastre and anton it doesn't make much difference if they finish 12th or 20th so i'm hoping they go mental, repeatedly for the next 2 weeks. hammering it on every speed bump, hill and mountain.
i think it's safe to say that it will break them, but it'll also break all of the non-climbers.
if it's brutal enough early enough in the day, and every day we'll see everyone break to (greater or lesser extent).

worth a shot.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I don't know how that climb translates to other climbs this Vuelta. The hard winds and low gradients made it hard and spectacular, but for Rodriguez those are about the worst possible circumstances to climb in, while for Nibali and Wiggins they're perfect. Rodriguez could defenitely take some time back on the others on this climb and (especially) the later climbs this Vuelta.

You could also be right though, perhaps he really doesn't have the form for the longer climbs. However, I don't think we can draw that conclusion just yet, especially coming from a single highly unusual climb.

Low gradients?

The last few kilometers rarely went below 7%, With some stretches of 3/4 kilometesr at 10%

Yes, that's low gradient... but not really. I do think the wind played a role though, you are right about that

 

[virandociclista]

I don't know how that climb translates to other climbs this Vuelta. The hard winds and low gradients made it hard and spectacular, but for Rodriguez those are about the worst possible circumstances to climb in, while for Nibali and Wiggins they're perfect. Rodriguez could defenitely take some time back on the others on this climb and (especially) the later climbs this Vuelta.

You could also be right though, perhaps he really doesn't have the form for the longer climbs. However, I don't think we can draw that conclusion just yet, especially coming from a single highly unusual climb.

another question/observation...

In the climb "La Covatilla", Was Purito dropped in the km 21?

the hardest part of the climb was between the km's 17 and 21 with an average gradient of 10%....

Was purito "destroyed" in the part of the climb that better suits him or he was destroyed in the first 10 km's of the climb (low gradient and a hard wind)?

I'm beggining to think that purito will lost more time in the next days....

excuse for the english!

 

[roundabout]

Rodriguez has done an ok by his standards TT today so the form is still good and yesterday was more likely a bad day than a weakness.

I still don't believe that he will pull time back on someone like Nibali on the climbs though.

 

[icefire]

another question/observation...

In the climb "La Covatilla", Was Purito dropped in the km 21?

the hardest part of the climb was between the km's 17 and 21 with an average gradient of 10%....

Was purito "destroyed" in the part of the climb that better suits him or he was destroyed in the first 10 km's of the climb (low gradient and a hard wind)?

I'm beggining to think that purito will lost more time in the next days....

excuse for the english!

Purito said today that he felt it was a hunger knock because his legs are OK after the mountain yesterday and the ITT today.

 

[Havetts]

Moncoutie to win this from the break, if it were from the peloton I'd see Kruijswijk win this.

 

[luckyboy]

This climb is tough enough if you look closer at the percentages. I see plenty of (small) 10%+ parts

It isn't Angliru but it's not exactly a tempo climb either

From the official profile it looks like it would be 10%+ pretty much all the way.

 

[luckyboy]

Moncoutie to win this from the break, if it were from the peloton I'd see Kruijswijk win this.

I was going to say Moncoutie because I thought the GC guys would be a bit tired after the TT, but then I realised there was a rest day.

Still, hope Moncoutie wins.

 

[Thomsena]

The change of weather should do some damage. Anyone 'famous' for disliking rain out of the top 10 riders?

 

[l.Harm]

Will be interesting who takes responsability in the peloton. Last days Katusha did almost all the work, even when they didn't have the red jersey. I don't think Katusha will do that wednesday (would be stupid) and it's questionable Team Sky is good enough to controll the race. Probably Liquigas will help them.

 

[Greenflame]

Low gradients?

The last few kilometers rarely went below 7%, With some stretches of 3/4 kilometesr at 10%

Yes, that's low gradient... but not really. I do think the wind played a role though, you are right about that

Well, low gradient compared to what's coming. No need to get to that offensive / sarcastic tone again, it's not like I was talking down TGBM or anything.

 

[Ragerod]

I'm interested to see whether Sky try to repeat their tactics from Covatilla, whether they send Froome up the road giving Nibali a dilemma or just hold position.

 

[Jolleh]

I hope Fuglsang can stick to front but he will prolly lose 30 secs or so to nibali etc.

 

[Sasquatch]

Moncoutie hates cold weather.

 

[the asian]

Moncoutie hates cold weather.

Yr. That's why he flops in the Tour and always does well in the Vuelta.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Thats the MTF where Wiggins and Froome have to attack as the other 3 certainly favor the lighter guys.

Not sure I agree. The gradient by the looks of the profile is quite irregular so really it would suit a more punchy climber than a diesel. I could be wrong but that's how I see this climb.

 

[craig1985]

Isn't this the stage that Parrulo is going to? Or maybe it is the following day's stage.

For the stage win, I'm going to call Fuji (Igor Antòn) for the stage win, he's more than 8 minutes down, so he might be able to get away.

 

[python]

i see all diesels including wiggo, nibs, froome, braj... to come under pressure from the little climbers like purito who lost loads of time in yesterday's itt.

my hunch is that one or two diesels will be broken tomorrow beyond a repair.

i doubt it will be nibs...possibly braj as he was visibly tiring in the conclusive part of the itt (btwn km 30 and 47).

btw, and so was wiggo who slowed down considerably in the last 17 km - guys like nimbs, menchov, kessiakoff, sanchez (and even monfort) beat him.

poor pacing by wiggo ? may be. but he also may be tiring...we'll see.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Isn't this the stage that Parrulo is going to? Or maybe it is the following day's stage.

For the stage win, I'm going to call Fuji (Igor Antòn) for the stage win, he's more than 8 minutes down, so he might be able to get away.

I think it's stage 12 Parrulo's going to. That's certainly closer to his hometown iirc.

 

[Tank Engine]

Will be interesting who takes responsability in the peloton. Last days Katusha did almost all the work, even when they didn't have the red jersey. I don't think Katusha will do that wednesday (would be stupid) and it's questionable Team Sky is good enough to controll the race. Probably Liquigas will help them.

It will be interesting to see who really wants to control the break. Sky will be interested in not allowing anybody to get a lot of time, but they will be quite happy to let a non-threatening break stay away (Liquigas probably be the same). Maybe Taaramae or Moncoutie will go for a long break as there are a few climbs up for grabs and then there's a couple of easier days. Sky and maybe Liquigas will set a controlling rather than chasing tempo. The teams of the climbers may well have to decide at some point whether they want to chase down the break. Of these teams, Rabobank would seem to have the most to gain by trying to give TGBM a chance to get bonuses.

 

[H2OUUP2]

Isn't this the stage that Parrulo is going to? Or maybe it is the following day's stage.

For the stage win, I'm going to call Fuji (Igor Antòn) for the stage win, he's more than 8 minutes down, so he might be able to get away.

I gotta go with this. Almost 9 min. back. They'll let him go.

 

[Fergoose]

No idea whatsoever, especially coming off a rest day. With the stages to follow its common sense to take it easy. I think common sense will go out of the window if any of the top 15 overall make an attack (and one of them is bound to) as there will have to be a reaction as the time gaps are so small. I think Menchov & Wiggins need to gain some time here if they want to realise their ambitions. Looking at the detailed profile of the last climb this stage may present a better opportunity than the others for them.

Stagewin
Looking for a guy in decent form, who has shown aggression and is probably far enough down to not trigger a reaction if they attack half way up the climb… I pick Seeldrayers

Prediction Score: 1 out of 11