2012 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

[El Pistolero]

Your point was (I think) that looking good in a preparation race doesn't mean much regarding form, using Cancellara in E3 as an example... but his form was great, and he proved it the next week.

You have a strange way of moulding facts in your favour, I must say.

Big difference between how he won E3 and how he failed at the Ronde. Let's be honest here, Chavanel wasn't having any problem holding Cancellara's wheel despite having already been in the attack. In interviews after the race he even said Cancellara was going slow the whole time, not just at the Muur.

Though I don't think you can compare one day prep races with prep stage races.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Your point was (I think) that looking good in a preparation race doesn't mean much regarding form, using Cancellara in E3 as an example... but his form was great, and he proved it the next week.

You have a strange way of moulding facts in your favour, I must say.

Sorry, I didn't understand. No, that's not what I meant. Like I said, Gesink was on form, but it's easy to own everyone when the rest either isn't, or are "lesser" riders. Same with Cancellara in E3.

And well, Cancellara didn't own anyone in Flanders. Chavanel and Gilbert were very strong also.

 

[theyoungest]

Big difference between how he won E3 and how he failed at the Ronde. Let's be honest here, Chavanel wasn't having any problem holding Cancellara's wheel despite having already been in the attack. In interviews after the race he even said Cancellara was going slow the whole time, not just at the Muur.

Yeah, you could already see him asking for water long before the Muur, so he probably wasn't feeling too great then either. But before that he rode everyone straight off his wheel... including your friend Tom Boonen. It's not like they just let him go.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Yeah, you could already see him asking for water long before the Muur, so he probably wasn't feeling too great then either. But before that he rode everyone straight off his wheel... including your friend Tom Boonen. It's not like they just let him go.

Gilbert wasn't at the front, though. I doubt he could have dropped him.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Rodriguez was third on Angliru behind another inconsistent climber.

Evans was second on Zoncolan last year and probably climbed it faster than Rodriguez did this year. On a good day he's not bad, but he has so many bad days.

Rodríguez is a pure climber, definitely. He has all the hallmarks of them - right down to the flakiness and inconsistency due to being tiny and having pretty terrible recovery. See also: Igor Antón, José Rujano, Domenico Pozzovivo.

Certainly his best terrain appears to be short, steep walls, hence his quality on climbs like Montelupone, and wins in País Vasco and Tirreno-Adriatico (and in Mende).

But he can do the big mountains too:
2011 Dauphiné - 1st to Collet d'Allevard, 1st to La Toussuire
2010 Vuelta - 3rd to Bola del Mundo, 4th to Cotobello, and 1st to Peña Cabarga (a sort of half-and-half, as it's an MTF not a short wall, but it's a small and steep MTF)
2010 Tour - 3rd to Tourmalet, 1st to Mende (more his terrain)
2009 Vuelta - 7th to Sierra Nevada despite being in the break all day and a domestique
2008 Vuelta - 3rd to Anglirú, 4th to La Rabassa & 5th to Pla de Beret, as a domestique
2008 Giro - 3rd to Pampeago, 3rd to Tirano

He's no mug in the high mountains. He's just one of the flakiest of the pure climbers, and a more consistent guy who won't be forced to expend a bunch of energy attacking because they won't lose 10 minutes in the TT like J-Rod, can afford to ride within themselves and let him burn himself out.

 

[Christian]

Would be a nice change to see Scarponi at the Tour, I hope that will happen!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lampre-isd-open-to-sending-scarponi-to-tour-de-france

 

[greenedge]

JROD is definetly a pure climber, he just fails really bad when he feels bad. I don't consider Pozzovivo a pure climber anymore, because we did not see him once at the Giro. At least Rujano and Anton challenged/ held on for stage wins.

I agree that Scarponi should go to the TDF. He's a good rider, who has not graced the fans around the world with his presence at the TDF for a long time. Also the ITT km will work against him but we saw at this years' Giro he can limit his losses and then gain some time on the mountains ( which is more than Cunego would be able to do ). I think Cunego should go to the Giro, then peak for the WC and Scarponi should do the TDF ( though it would be good to see him win a GT in his career ) and he probably could not win the TDF. ( Top 5 and a stage win for him would be viable in my view )

 

[jens_attacks]

I don't consider Pozzovivo a pure climber anymore, because we did not see him once at the Giro. At least Rujano and Anton challenged/ held on for stage wins.

dropping contador is kind of a climber thing.pozzovivo is the definition of a pure climber.

pozzovivo is one of the reasons i'm afraid rujano will never win il giro.tiny body,low blood sugar,giro is cold and wet,you get sick bye bye general.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

JROD is definetly a pure climber, he just fails really bad when he feels bad. I don't consider Pozzovivo a pure climber anymore, because we did not see him once at the Giro. At least Rujano and Anton challenged/ held on for stage wins.

Pozzovivo is probably the purest climber in the péloton right now. He can't do anything else. Just watch him in Trentino 2010 or the Giro dell'Apennino, where he leaves everybody trailing in his wake, and one by one major climbers approaching their peak fall by the wayside. Pozzovivo is an awesome climber, and he was 9th at the Giro a few years ago, coming 2nd on the queen stage to Passo Fedaia (albeit on a hugely suspicious team).

However, this last couple of years he's shown all the problems a pure climber has. He'd be better off being Spanish - the Giro comes at a time of year when it's still often quite cold, windy and wet, and he gets sick, or gets battered by the crosswinds, loses time and retires before we get to his stomping grounds. But the way he performs in shorter mountainous races, it's really a shame that he's not made it to the real mountains the last 2 years, because he can climb with some of the best.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Pozzovivo is probably the purest climber in the péloton right now. He can't do anything else. Just watch him in Trentino 2010 or the Giro dell'Apennino, where he leaves everybody trailing in his wake, and one by one major climbers approaching their peak fall by the wayside. Pozzovivo is an awesome climber, and he was 9th at the Giro a few years ago, coming 2nd on the queen stage to Passo Fedaia (albeit on a hugely suspicious team).

However, this last couple of years he's shown all the problems a pure climber has. He'd be better off being Spanish - the Giro comes at a time of year when it's still often quite cold, windy and wet, and he gets sick, or gets battered by the crosswinds, loses time and retires before we get to his stomping grounds. But the way he performs in shorter mountainous races, it's really a shame that he's not made it to the real mountains the last 2 years, because he can climb with some of the best.

He's the purest European climber I can think of. Well said.

Would be a nice change to see Scarponi at the Tour, I hope that will happen!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lampre-isd-open-to-sending-scarponi-to-tour-de-france

I don't buy that it was Scarponi's idea. He has a decent chance to win the Giro after all, even if Basso is the favorite and Rujano the best climber.

While I'm confident that he can do some damage in the TDF's medium and perhaps, high mountain stages, the field will be ridiculously strong next year, with many GT contenders who will own him in the TTs. So, what is he trying to accomplish?

 

[jens_attacks]

also if i'm not wrong scarponi is not good in the heat.giro would be the logical choice,you never know,basso and rujano might fail

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

also if i'm not wrong scarponi is not good in the heat.giro would be the logical choice,you never know,basso and rujano might fail

Indeed. Rujano may get ill again, and Basso may not reach his 2009 level again. It could be a huge mistake if Lampre pushes him to ride the Tour.

And you're completely right about the heat. He said so himself in this year's Giro. And later he had heat issues at the Vuelta.

 

[The Hitch]

He's the purest European climber I can think of. Well said.



I don't buy that it was Scarponi's idea. He has a decent chance to win the Giro after all, even if Basso is the favorite and Rujano the best climber.

While I'm confident that he can do some damage in the TDF's medium and perhaps, high mountain stages, the field will be ridiculously strong next year, with many GT contenders who will own him in the TTs. So, what is he trying to accomplish?

Scarponi in the Giro presentation was joking that Nibali and Contador should do the Tour so that its easier for him to win the Giro. I think Giro is what he cares about and if he did Tour it would be like Delfino in 09, Ricco 08 etc, for a stage or maybe KOM.

 

[will10]

Every great performance by Scarponi I can think of was in the cold and rain, which says it all

 

[Ferminal]

What MTF has Evans won?

One must never forget this if they want to hold something against the Dutch Mafia...

 

[Christian]

What MTF has Evans won?

Does Muur de Huy count??

 

[maltiv]

What MTF has Evans won?

Mont Ventoux, after wheelsucking Gesink for the entire climb

 

[auscyclefan94]

One must never forget this if they want to hold something against the Dutch Mafia...

Yes, but there are plenty of other things that I can hold against an extremist organisation.

Mont Ventoux, after wheelsucking Gesink for the entire climb

1. He never wheel sucked like people such as Dekker_Tifosi try to con people into believing.
2. He didn't have to work once Popovych was dropped considering that Popovych was the team's gc candidate. Evans was there to support him in that race. He couldn't keep up with the pace so Evans sat in Gesink's wheel for the final few km's and then sprinted around him quite easily.

 

[greenedge]

If Shleck can target the TDF and be worse than Scarponi in the ITT and have never finished higher than Scarponis' best result in a GT that gives credence to Scarponi. ( making whatever choice he decides to do seem smart as he can challenge ) Besides in my view the first week at the TDF will be tense and fraught which might result in more crashes like this year.

I would like to see Scarponi win the Giro before targeting the TDF but if he wants to focus on it this year, i would not be adverse to his choice.

And sorry for making an ill informed decision about Pozzovivo. I have just not seen the races he has won so much ( and the last year he has accomplished nothing according to you guys )

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Scarponi in the Giro presentation was joking that Nibali and Contador should do the Tour so that its easier for him to win the Giro. I think Giro is what he cares about and if he did Tour it would be like Delfino in 09, Ricco 08 etc, for a stage or maybe KOM.

Yeah, but the riders you mention did the Giro and the Tour, with the Giro being their #1 target. Like Basso next year.

Looks like Scarponi's main focus will be the Tour, however, so I doubt he does the Giro as well. I agree, though, that the Giro is what he cares about, so I think the team may have "convinced" him otherwise.

 

[Ferminal]

Mont Ventoux, after wheelsucking Gesink for the entire climb

Let's just call it 2/3 of the way up the "other" (I think?) side of Ventoux. Save Evans' Ventoux moment as the time his nemesis Piti destroyed him and Alberto pretended he was hurting.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Let's just call it 2/3 of the way up the "other" (I think?) side of Ventoux. Save Evans' Ventoux moment as the time his nemesis Piti destroyed him and Alberto pretended he was hurting.

Correct. Until Mont Serein ski station (1411m) on the other side of Ventoux. 14.9 kilometers at 7.3 percent, as per letour.fr. Not as prestigious as the Chalet Reynard finish they typically use if they don't go all the way to the summit, but still a tough climb. Nothing like this year's Paris-Nice had to offer in terms of Tony Martin-style "climbs," that's for sure.

 

[Christian]

Will Nibali be Liquigas' captain for TdF then if Basso rides the Giro? Has there been news about that yet? Will Sagan be in the Tour team?

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, but there are plenty of other things that I can hold against an extremist organisation.


1. He never wheel sucked like people such as Dekker_Tifosi try to con people into believing.
2. He didn't have to work once Popovych was dropped considering that Popovych was the team's gc candidate. Evans was there to support him in that race. He couldn't keep up with the pace so Evans sat in Gesink's wheel for the final few km's and then sprinted around him quite easily.

And where do you refute the point that Evans was wheel sucking?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Will Nibali be Liquigas' captain for TdF then if Basso rides the Giro? Has there been news about that yet? Will Sagan be in the Tour team?

Basso has implied that Nibali will be the team leader, and that he will ride in support of him, but he will no doubt have his own agenda.

Sagan has stated that he wants to ride the Tour, but it hasn't been confirmed, as far as I know. I'd be surprised if he wasn't selected, though.