2012 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

[Cimber]

I intend to keep it

damn!!!!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

we can say that Gesink handled that much better.

No argument there, though I wouldn't use that climb to gauge GT climbing potential by.

Anyway, I don't agree with you about Schleck either (he's definitely improved a lot since that first Giro, yes he's plateaued now, but that's 4 years along the line).

Andy has gotten more consistent, but his peak performances haven't improved that much from what I can tell, based on his climbing times and TTs in that CERA Giro. Hard to know for sure, though, if you don't have access to his power files from the last 5 years.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He climbed at Gesink's level at the '08 and '09 Vuelta. So yeah.

what does gesink have to do with it? Like I said Mosqeura is nothing special, meanwhile gesink was a up and coming rider at the time. so yeahh.. good point

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

what does gesink have to do with it? Like I said Mosqeura is nothing special, meanwhile gesink was a up and coming rider at the time. so yeahh.. good point

You think Gesink is something special as a future GT contender. That's reason enough for me.

So, I compared them against each other as climbers. Gesink may have been up and coming, but hasn't improved on his climbing since that 2009 Vuelta, IMO.

 

[theyoungest]

You think Gesink is something special as a future GT contender. That's reason enough for me.

So, I compared them against each other as climbers. Gesink may have been up and coming, but hasn't improved on his climbing since that 2009 Vuelta, IMO.

Remember the 2010 Tour de Suisse? The Tour 2010 is hard to use as comparative material, because the general level is just much higher than the Vuelta.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Remember the 2010 Tour de Suisse?

Yes, I remember.

It was a prep race with just one tough stage and he was already on peak form, while the Schlecks and others were clearly not. The average level wasn't as high as in the 2009 Vuelta, IMO. Great performance, though, but he was obviously still "fresh" like in those one-day races where he owned everyone.

The Tour 2010 is hard to use as comparative material, because the general level is just much higher than the Vuelta.

Yes, recovery is a bigger issue there. He doesn't recover as good as some other GC contenders, IMO. Kinda like Valverde, who is, IMO, underrated as a climber.

Maybe he'll improve with age.

 

[El Pistolero]

Tour de Suisse is a bad example lol.

Otherwise Joaquim Rodriguez is a better climber than Cadel Evans

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

he is


.....

 

[maltiv]

Tour de Suisse is a bad example lol.

Otherwise Joaquim Rodriguez is a better climber than Cadel Evans

Yes, he is. Less consistent, yes, but a better climber nonetheless...

 

[roundabout]

Huh?

......

 

[JRanton]

Wiggins:

Algarve - Paris-Nice - Catalunya - Romandie - Dauphine - Tour - Olympic Road Race - Olympic Time Trial

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...-Bradley-Wiggins-at-London-Olympic-Games.aspx

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, I remember.

It was a prep race with just one tough stage and he was already on peak form, while the Schlecks and others were clearly not. The average level wasn't as high as in the 2009 Vuelta, IMO. Great performance, though, but he was obviously still "fresh" like in those one-day races where he owned everyone.

He obviously was in great form, and it's hard to gauge his performance, but he built up such a gap, and could stand on the pedals for so long, that I'm pretty confident I've never seen him climbing better.

Yes, recovery is a bigger issue there. He doesn't recover as good as some other GC contenders, IMO. Kinda like Valverde, who is, IMO, underrated as a climber.

Maybe he'll improve with age.

Of course riding around injured didn't bother him in the slightest... look at Evans in the Tour 2008, he was probably in his best form ever there but still didn't have that extra edge due to a crash.

 

[Netserk]

(Ruta Del Sol) - Murcia - T-A - Catalunya (/Critérium International) - Vuelta al Pais Vasco - Vuelta a Castilla y Leon - (Tour de Romandie) - Critérium du Dauphiné - Spanish RR and TT - TdF - Olympic RR and TT - VaE - Worlds RR and TT.

This is the program I think/wish Contador will ride next year, with wishes in parentheses

 

[Parrulo]

when will contador start to take the ardennes seriously?

i get this year seems to be all about the tour vuelta double but still . . .

btw he won't race nearly as much before the tour as you say Netserk.

he will do that race in argentina then prolly murcia then T-A, rest till pais vasco and asturias and then big rest till the dauphine.

he may not even race asturias as he seems to be planning a busy last part of the year with 2 GT's worlds and olympics

 

[will10]

Doesn't normally do Asturias, can't see him there.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He obviously was in great form, and it's hard to gauge his performance, but he built up such a gap, and could stand on the pedals for so long, that I'm pretty confident I've never seen him climbing better.

Yeah, that's what people said about Cancellara in E3, too. It always looks much more impressive when the competition is weak.

Gesinks power data wasn't out of this world, either. It pales in comparison to Sastre's win on Alpe d'Huez, for example.


Albulapass, 13,5 km @7,1 %


Robert Gesink (NED / Rabobank) | 37.28, 21,62 km/h, VAM 1534 m/h, 5,66 W/kg

Rigoberto Uran (COL / Caisse d'Epargne) | 38.20, 21,13 km/h, VAM 1499 m/h, 5,53 W/kg
Joaquim Rodriguez (ESP / Katusha) | 38.20, 21,13 km/h, VAM 1499 m/h, 5,53 W/kg
Olivier Zaugg (SUI / Liquigas) | 38.20, 21,13 km/h, VAM 1499 m/h, 5,53 W/kg
Steve Morabito (SUI / BMC) | 38.20, 21,13 km/h, VAM 1499 m/h, 5,53 W/kg

Lance Armstrong (USA / The Shack) | 38.25, 21,08 km/h, VAM 1496 m/h, 5,52 W/kg
Frank Schleck (LUX / Saxo Bank) | 38.25, 21,08 km/h, VAM 1496 m/h, 5,52 W/kg

Matteo Carrara (ITA / Vacansoleil) | 38.34, 21,00 km/h, VAM 1490 m/h, 5,50 W/kg
Roman Kreuziger (CZE / Liquigas) | 38.34, 21,00 km/h, VAM 1490 m/h, 5,50 W/kg

look at Evans in the Tour 2008, he was probably in his best form ever there

I disagree about that, too.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Mosquera was only in his 3rd GT at the 2009 Vuelta. His first was the 2007 one, where he finished 5th.

He did have some experience of two week racing from Portugal, however, and had shown plenty of good results in the few climbing races there, and in 2005 with Kaiku. And because Mosquera can't descend, time trial or ride in a bunch comfortably, he has to go on the attack. In the 2009 Vuelta Mosquera was affected more than any other GC contender by the crash in Liège (he was helped across the line by two teammates and nearly pulled out), and as a result lost beaucoup time in the first week, which meant he had to be the one to initiate attacks in the climbs; Gesink had to attack, and did, but could afford to pick his moments.

Comparing the two in the race is fraught with inadequacy, because Mosquera was injured at the start and had to fight for time whether he felt good or not later on, and Gesink was injured at the end and lost a bunch of time he otherwise wouldn't have done. And we can't really use the 2008 race either since Mosquera had a team behind him and Gesink was debuting.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes, he is. Less consistent, yes, but a better climber nonetheless...

Rodriguez is a very bad climber. For every good day he has 3 bad days. He constantly bonked this year at the Giro and Vuelta. It was laughable. His only good climbing performance this year came from the Dauphiné where he was one of the few who was peaking.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, that's what people said about Cancellara in E3, too. It always looks much more impressive when the competition is weak.

I don't see the comparison... Cancellara bonked on the Muur, what does that have to do with his form, which was quite obviously excellent? (he even recoverd slightly and got 2nd)

 

[maltiv]

Rodriguez is a very bad climber. For every good day he has 3 bad days.

In the Vuelta this year yes, but he wasn't in shape, much like anyone else who did the Giro, a race where he placed 5th overall. I think Evans is heavily overrated as a climber here just because of TDF where he mostly finished together with 10 man groups (which included "amazing" climbers like Peraud and Voeckler). Evans has won what, 1 MTF in his entire career? Rodriguez won two just in dauphine this year in a spectacular fashion. That being said, Evans is a much better GC rider and has a superior recovery, but he's not a better climber in the purest sense of the word.

 

[El Pistolero]

In the Vuelta this year yes, but he wasn't in shape, much like anyone else who did the Giro, a race where he placed 5th overall. I think Evans is heavily overrated as a climber here just because of TDF where he mostly finished together with 10 man groups (which included "amazing" climbers like Peraud and Voeckler). Evans has won what, 1 MTF in his entire career? Rodriguez won two just in dauphine this year in a spectacular fashion. That being said, Evans is a much better GC rider and has a superior recovery, but he's not a better climber in the purest sense of the word.

Rodriguez climbing at the Giro sucked as well. Rodriguez has won nothing of note in his entire career, so not sure if you want to compare victories here... Most of his uphill wins come from steep uphill finishes that can't really be called mountains. Dauphiné is a prep race where he was the only one peaking. I don't hold much value to that.

I find Rodriguez to be too inconsistent to be actually called a climber. He often loses minutes to non-climbers on mountains. He's good at the steep stuff and that's pretty much it as far as his climbing goes.

I don't see why his inconsistency shouldn't count. Where do you climb mountains? In stage races. There aren't any mountain one day races...

 

[The Hitch]

I don't see the comparison... Cancellara bonked on the Muur, what does that have to do with his form, which was quite obviously excellent? (he even recoverd slightly and got 2nd)

3rd. He got 2nd in MSR and PR.

In the Vuelta this year yes, but he wasn't in shape, much like anyone else who did the Giro, a race where he placed 5th overall. I think Evans is heavily overrated as a climber here just because of TDF where he mostly finished together with 10 man groups (which included "amazing" climbers like Peraud and Voeckler). Evans has won what, 1 MTF in his entire career? Rodriguez won two just in dauphine this year in a spectacular fashion. That being said, Evans is a much better GC rider and has a superior recovery, but he's not a better climber in the purest sense of the word.

What MTF has Evans won?

Rodriguez climbing at the Giro sucked as well. Rodriguez has won nothing of note in his entire career, so not sure if you want to compare victories here... Most of his uphill wins come from steep uphill finishes that can't really be called mountains. Dauphiné is a prep race where he was the only one peaking. I don't hold much value to that.

I find Rodriguez to be too inconsistent to be actually called a climber. He often loses minutes to non-climbers on mountains. He's good at the steep stuff and that's pretty much it as far as his climbing goes.

I don't see why his inconsistency shouldn't count. Where do you climb mountains? In stage races. There aren't any mountain one day races...

2nd on Angiliru behind the best climber in the world.

3rd on Tourmalet behind the 2 best climbers in the world.

Hes not bad on mountains.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Mosquera was only in his 3rd GT at the 2009 Vuelta. His first was the 2007 one, where he finished 5th.

He did have some experience of two week racing from Portugal, however, and had shown plenty of good results in the few climbing races there, and in 2005 with Kaiku. And because Mosquera can't descend, time trial or ride in a bunch comfortably, he has to go on the attack. In the 2009 Vuelta Mosquera was affected more than any other GC contender by the crash in Liège (he was helped across the line by two teammates and nearly pulled out), and as a result lost beaucoup time in the first week, which meant he had to be the one to initiate attacks in the climbs; Gesink had to attack, and did, but could afford to pick his moments.

Comparing the two in the race is fraught with inadequacy, because Mosquera was injured at the start and had to fight for time whether he felt good or not later on, and Gesink was injured at the end and lost a bunch of time he otherwise wouldn't have done.

I didn't consider those stages and mentioned that specifically. I wasn't aware that Mosquera was injured. But that seems to point to Mosquera being a better climber than Gesink in that Vuelta, even though he "had to" initiate attacks, as you put it. If Gesink didn't have to initiate those attacks, he could have followed him, if he 'd been able to, but Mosquera dropped him two stages in a row, just as Gesink had done with Mosquera earlier on in the race, when Mosquera presumably suffered more from his injuries.

I don't see the comparison... Cancellara bonked on the Muur, what does that have to do with his form, which was quite obviously excellent? (he even recoverd slightly and got 2nd)

I was clearly talking about E3, not Flanders. Never mind.

 

[theyoungest]

I was clearly talking about E3, not Flanders. Never mind.

Your point was (I think) that looking good in a preparation race doesn't mean much regarding form, using Cancellara in E3 as an example... but his form was great, and he proved it the next week.

You have a strange way of moulding facts in your favour, I must say.

 

[El Pistolero]

3rd. He got 2nd in MSR and PR.




What MTF has Evans won?



2nd on Angiliru behind the best climber in the world.

3rd on Tourmalet behind the 2 best climbers in the world.

Hes not bad on mountains.

Rodriguez was third on Angliru behind another inconsistent climber.

Evans was second on Zoncolan last year and probably climbed it faster than Rodriguez did this year. On a good day he's not bad, but he has so many bad days.