2012 Tour de France: Stage 10: Mácon → Bellegarde-sur-Valserine (195 km)

[BoxCoppi]

The design of this stage is awful. Corlier should have been 3rd cat climb. It single climb stage once again. The worst thing is about Grand Colombier - what is the point of H.C. 43km before the finish? When was the last attack from top3-top5 in a similar stage? In 60ies or 70ies?
I expect no action between top 10 or top 15 riders: at best 2-3 of them will be dropped as a result of MJ group tempo. Some 15-20 riders should be in MJ group at the top of Grand Colombier; if tempo is very high then about 10.

Didn't the Pamplona stage in 1996 end with a long flat part? That was a brilliant stage with large time differences. Those 5-10 riders easily managed to keep the peloton at bay

 

[DominicDecoco]

The design of this stage is awful. Corlier should have been 3rd cat climb. It single climb stage once again. The worst thing is about Grand Colombier - what is the point of H.C. 43km before the finish? When was the last attack from top3-top5 in a similar stage? In 60ies or 70ies?
I expect no action between top 10 or top 15 riders: at best 2-3 of them will be dropped as a result of MJ group tempo. Some 15-20 riders should be in MJ group at the top of Grand Colombier; if tempo is very high then about 10.

The stage is just fine. We will most definitely see better racing than if it had a MTF. And I can see that action coming as soon as at the top of Columbier.

 

[jens_attacks]

Didn't the Pamplona stage in 1996 end with a long flat part? That was a brilliant stage with large time differences. Those 5-10 riders easily managed to keep the peloton at bay

grande festina!
squinzi is in pain even now for that lol

100 km from the last climb of the day with '96 festina even the pau stages would be entertaining


i love to hype my uk postal boys but the tour is not over yet.it's good that all the other are forced to attack
i still have my opinion though that wiggo will attack on toussuire to make a point about the froomy situation.

dr. ferrari is spot on on what should happen for now.

Certainly the superiority hitherto manifested is clear: if their rivals want to have a chance of winning the TdF, they won't have to wait until the last minutes of the final climb, but look for a brave solution from far away, with the purpose of shifting the challenge from power to endurance.



http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=indepth.view&id=131


grand colombier will be fun tomorrow

 

[H2OUUP2]

Um............................Vino ftw!

 

[Poursuivant]

Anyone explain why the bookies make Rolland odds on to finish above Zubeldia tomorrow? The two mountain days before he hasn't!

 

[airstream]

well, i don't want to open a separate thread so i ask here. what do you think about rabobank perfomance in the tour? maybe some of our dutch forum members to comment what's going on and what dutch press say. only crashes can not explain such an awful result. why don't gesink and mollema want to abandon for the Vuelta if it's obvious they are not able to take a stage with this form? i feel so much sorry for them. probably one believed in clean sport after last season and now pays for that...

hopefully, Rabo will show something tomorrow.

 

[guncha]

The last time there even was a similar stage in the TdF is basically never since the Gd Colombier hasn't been raced before in the TdF and there isn't a lot of similar climbs in France (a more or less none at all that have been used in the tour in recent years).

The point of a tough climb and then an easy climb is that somebody wants to take time they will have to go early and not wait for the last 2-3 km mtf sprint like we saw at the giro this year. The point is that Gd Colombier is hard enough for somebody to blow the race to pieces and then wee still have 43 km of racing with all kinds of scenarios that could play out.

Really? What about Aubisque last year in Pau-Lourdes stage? Both are single climb stages. Aubisque is 16.4 at 7.1% while Grand Colombier is 17.4km at 7.1%. Aubisque is located at 1709m, Grand Colombier at 1501m. Aubisque was 42.5km from finish, Grand Colombier is 43km from finish. To remind you MJ group had 53 riders at finish and 30 more finished 15 seconds later... Small climb is bad news for those who will be dropped on Colombier and who are not in form (see Armstrong at Les Gets in TDF 10). For guys who challenge MJ Richemond will be piece of cake.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

predict Nibali to go monkey**** crazy tomorrov lol

 

[airstream]

Something would've happened only if the stage had been the final alpine one. So the big guns basically think about La Toussuire.

 

[its like that]

People building up hope that something exciting will happen from the GC contenders but nothing will

 

[burning]

Yeah, I dont expect major attacks today, but I expect some attacks at Croix de Fer

 

[guncha]

Didn't the Pamplona stage in 1996 end with a long flat part? That was a brilliant stage with large time differences. Those 5-10 riders easily managed to keep the peloton at bay

I didn't follow cycling in 1996. On paper it was monster stage - four 1st cat. or HC climbs. History book says top 8 (both in this stage and in Paris) finished within 20 seconds in that stage.

 

[ferryman]

predict Nibali to go monkey**** crazy tomorrov lol

Oh yes please. I'm hoping for the full on Liqui mad f**k you all keep up if you can mad attack coming down Colombier.

 

[guncha]

We will most definitely see better racing than if it had a MTF.

I like your optimism. Anyway, I won't waste my time to watch Colombier's snooze-fest. Fishing should be more fun!

 

[DominicDecoco]

I like your optimism. Anyway, I won't waste my time to watch Colombier's snooze-fest. Fishing should be more fun!

Your call.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Just watching Avondétappe on Dutch TV... Mart Smeets unaware being hilariously funny, talking about Dutch riders in this TDF with the words "wishful sinking". Yup, that sums it ut nicely Mart.

 

[Havetts]

Just watching Avondétappe on Dutch TV... Mart Smeets unaware being hilariously funny, talking about Dutch riders in this TDF with the words "wishful sinking". Yup, that sums it ut nicely Mart.

Haha.. Sank you very muts!

But they'll have to go on the Colombier to bring Wiggo in trouble. Attack one by one, smoke em up slowly.

 

[Froome19]

It is down to everybody but Sky to make this a stage where they can possibly gain time on Sky because 4 minutes or even 6 minutes in VDB's case is a very tall order to overcome and it can only be achieved if they take every opportunity possibly. The key is to squeeze Sky until they are dry because currently the prospects look very bleak for the other contenders. They can achieve such things by either attacking which will force Sky to chase but doing so is risky as it will leave them vulnerable if Froome drags Wiggins up to them and they will be bereft of any energy to take the fight to Wiggins and he will be able to put time into them. Furthermore though it will mean that they will be vulnerable to losing their GC places to their fellow challengers and this is where the co-operation is so vital because if all the challengers are too concerned about their own GC position and attaining a podium rather than going for a win than they all will be too scared to attack, they need to rather have the guts so just go for it and if they all do that and forget their fellow challengers then they will be able to co-operate effectively and they will have the optimum chance to possible put time into Wiggins.

Comparing this stage to the Dauphine one it is obvious that it will be hard and very possibly unrealistic to get away from Sky on the descent, especially if they have EBH on the front as they did iin the Dauphine.

The key will be to really push the pace on the climb and then pull out a gap before the summit and pull out a gap and then try and maintain it up until the finish. Nibbs and Evans are good enough descenders to pull out a gap on the descent but they wont be able to do it in the same way they did it in the Dauphine with a whole big entourage to help them on the flat because they need to eliminate riders like those on the climb as they need to eliminate EBH and his fellow Sky helpers. Froome and Wiggins versus Nibs and Evans on a descent is very likely to go the way of the latter pair. Yet on the flat leading to the finish I am afraid that the whole stage may be neutralised as everything comes back even if that does transpire at least we would have seen a good stage and the intent of the challengers to Sky supremacy would be unveiled.

That imo is the most important purpose of this stage; revealing the intent and effort to which the challengers are willing to go in order to attack and squeeze Sky dry.

 

[austy37]

Sorry quick question re ettiqutte...if say there is a group of GC contenders up the road but the MJ crashes behind them, should you stop?

 

[cineteq]

But they'll have to go on the Colombier to bring Wiggo in trouble. Attack one by one, smoke em up slowly.

Exactly...although I'm suspecting Sky will start the speed train at the bottom of the Colombier to counteract those potential attacks and get rid of contenders' teammates. This could backfire.

Nibali today:
"We need conviction and to try to separate Wiggins and Froome from their teammates then attack them one on one. I’ll be important to play this game with the head and not just go on instinct."

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...roome-from-their-teammates.aspx#ixzz20GGeORAj

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It is down to everybody but Sky to make this a stage where they can possibly gain time on Sky because 4 minutes or even 6 minutes in VDB's case is a very tall order to overcome and it can only be achieved if they take every opportunity possibly.

A lot of people seem to be expecting great things from Van den Broeck it seems. I'd like to point out first and foremost, that he usually is bad after a rest day (both the first and second rest day are before a mountain stage - bummer). Today he trained twice as long as the rest of his team to try and diminish the restday-effect as much as possible.
Also, just to be clear, he isn't thinking about the podium anymore, let alone winning (which he never did according to himself). His goal now is top 5. So his main concern is trying to drop the likes of Menchov and Zubeldia. So he doesn't have to take 6 minutes on Sky. If he wanted to win, he'd need 10 minutes with the second ITT in mind.

 

[cineteq]

Comparing this stage to the Dauphine one it is obvious that it will be hard and very possibly unrealistic to get away from Sky on the descent, especially if they have EBH on the front as they did iin the Dauphine.

Sorry to give the bad news, but you can't compare a warm-up race with the Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sorry quick question re ettiqutte...if say there is a group of GC contenders up the road but the MJ crashes behind them, should you stop?

Did he stop for Gesink, Sanchez, JVdB etc etc etc?

NO! I don't see why the MJ should get a free pass as opposed to his competition.

 

[Bala Verde]

Exactly...although I'm suspecting Sky will start the speed train at the bottom of the Colombier to counteract those potential attacks and get rid of contenders' teammates. This could backfire.

Nibali today:
"We need conviction and to try to separate Wiggins and Froome from their teammates then attack them one on one. I’ll be important to play this game with the head and not just go on instinct."

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...roome-from-their-teammates.aspx#ixzz20GGeORAj

That means they need to go hard from the start all the way to the foot of the Colombier. And then hard at the foot of the Colombier. First and foremost, they [team leaders of BMC/Lotto/LIQ/RSN] shouldn't be afraid of becoming isolated themselves. They'd have to sacrifice their general purpose domestiques in the first 133Km and then shred their climbers at the bottom of the Colombier. Set a blistering pace to the foot of the climb, which is around 18k long or so, and then some.

If they can drill it so hard that EBH, Rogers, and Porte get in trouble, you have effectively trashed their mountain train. Then, other climbers can set their own pace, but best of all, use accelerations to put the hurt on Wiggins. If he prefers a tempo climb, he'll have to do it himself, without a bunch of hares, which makes it more difficult, and definitely harder on him with the remainder of the TdF. Wiggins has finished how many 3 week GT with a good placing? 2011 Vuelta and the 2009 TdF?

The stage before, to Porrentruy, was only 158Km long, but Froome, the last SKY helper, looked so so up the col de la croix. That one was a pretty short climb, but the hard pace they had set throughout the stage (with many breakaway attempts; same will happen tomorrow), could have somehow sapped Froome's climbing prowess. Afterwards, he was also unable to close the gap to Evans and VDB2.

But then again, do the outsiders and contenders dare to gamble? Do they dare to be isolated themselves?

 

[Panda Claws]

I wonder if we'll get to see how good VDB is in the real mountains.

It is funny how people laughed at me for suggesting he could podium and now everyone is praising him skyhigh.

But enough bragging, I am really looking forward to see how Evans will handle this, he has the experience, the tactics and the improvisation that Wiggins does not.