2012 Tour de France: Stage 10: Mácon → Bellegarde-sur-Valserine (195 km)

[maxmartin]

I wonder if we'll get to see how good VDB is in the real mountains.

It is funny how people laughed at me for suggesting he could podium and now everyone is praising him skyhigh.

But enough bragging, I am really looking forward to see how Evans will handle this, he has the experience, the tactics and the improvisation that Wiggins does not.

because without people attacking, this tour will be boring as hell under SKY total control, nobody wants to see that. Plus everyone like to cheer on underdogs

 

[etymology]

But then again, do the outsiders and contenders dare to gamble? Do they dare to be isolated themselves?

yes, they will gamble.

evans will not "dare" to be isolated -based on his last three tdf's , evans is accustomed to being isolated in the mountains.

speaking of evans and attacking in the mountains, the following is from today's (wednesday) sydney morning herald

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/chef-stops-evanss-tour-going-up-in-smoke-20120711-21uu7.html

though wiggins is certainly looking mighty good for yellow in paris on the first rest day, it is wayyyyyyyyyyy to early to write off evans. i am far from convinced wiggans and the skytrain are invincible. i will not be amazed if cadel wins the tour as i beleive he will be in yellow in paris.

 

[Andre.J]

nah .tomorrow it's your big day jurgen looks very strong to me,he might even win the stage.i'll cheer for him because he impressed me on col de la croix

Thank you for the encouraging words...I hope you're right


On the edge,

Andre

 

[cineteq]

yes, they will gamble.
it is wayyyyyyyyyyy to early to write off evans. i am far from convinced wiggans and the skytrain are invincible.

I think Evans will wait so see what the others do today/tomorrow. I don't think he'll be the initial agressor. Wiggins/Sky is most likely to let Nibali go than Evans.

So If Nibali is going to do something is has to be at some point of the Colombier climb and try to get maximum gain to the finish, otherwise the gains will be minimal doing the descent starting all together from Richemond.

Which brings me to:
- Will Sagan/Gilbert be allowed to go with the BOTD?
- Will Basso go solo on the Colombier climb and wait for Nibali later on?

The key is to really put the stress on Wiggins and see if he breaks down, as Sean Kelly believes it could happen.

 

[movingtarget]

A lot of people seem to be expecting great things from Van den Broeck it seems. I'd like to point out first and foremost, that he usually is bad after a rest day (both the first and second rest day are before a mountain stage - bummer). Today he trained twice as long as the rest of his team to try and diminish the restday-effect as much as possible.
Also, just to be clear, he isn't thinking about the podium anymore, let alone winning (which he never did according to himself). His goal now is top 5. So his main concern is trying to drop the likes of Menchov and Zubeldia. So he doesn't have to take 6 minutes on Sky. If he wanted to win, he'd need 10 minutes with the second ITT in mind.

Sure he was outclassed in the TT but I agree that top 5 probably looks best. He is riding well and will lose any gains, again in the next TT as will most of the others. Should be a good battle for the podium spots with Menchov, Froome, Evans, Nibali all pretty close on GC. Be good to see Frank try something in the mountains and maybe look for a stage win as well as possibly taking some other GC riders along with him to put pressure on Sky. Menchov won't attack but Nibali and Evans will and probably VDB.

 

[Andre.J]

Interesting little fight between Zubeldia and Monfort....both going for the right to be the new leader of their team. I thought they were before the Tour started.


Andre

 

[maxmartin]

Interesting little fight between Zubeldia and Monfort....both going for the right to be the new leader of their team. I thought they were before the Tour started.


Andre

i don't think Monfort is 100% gunning for GC, he said he wanted a more freelance role, maybe go for stage win or jersey hunt or maybe GC hunt. Guess he is also the type of person don't want too much pressure

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Interesting little fight between Zubeldia and Monfort....both going for the right to be the new leader of their team. I thought they were before the Tour started.


Andre

If i understand correctly, neither were leader beforehand. I think only Klöden was undisputed leader, with Frank not in top shape. The team decided to wait for the rest day to see how the situation was. Monfort asked for a free role. Not as leader, but without having to work for the others. From the looks of it, he got his wish.

i don't think Monfort is 100% gunning for GC, he said he wanted a more freelance role, maybe go for stage win or jersey hunt or maybe GC hunt. Guess he is also the type of person don't want too much pressure

Monfort is going for GC. He's not a natural climber and they won't give him any room to go in a break. And as a TT he also won't win a stage.

 

[Random Direction]

I'll go for Liquigas to split the field with Evans.

 

[maxmartin]

Monfort is going for GC. He's not a natural climber and they won't give him any room to go in a break. And as a TT he also won't win a stage.

that is his team wanted him to do, in the interview he said he was not sure he would be 100% committed for that, he wants a free role.

 

[maxmartin]

I'll go for Liquigas to split the field with Evans.

i would very much like to see some one shaking off sky train, but i also know that would be very difficult

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

that is his team wanted him to do, in the interview he said he was not sure he would be 100% committed for that, he wants a free role.

I know what he said, lol, he's been saying it all week, he wants a free role so he can go for GC. But he doesn't need anyone working for him in order to ride top 10 (his words). He was angry with himself to be too far back when Van den Broeck ripped the peloton apart, so he missed the GC group.

He's going for GC (or at least unless he loses a lot of time in the mountains), if there ever was a TDF fit for him to do so, it would be this one.

 

[maxmartin]

He was angry with himself to be too far back when Van den Broeck ripped the peloton apart, so he missed the GC group.

that was a pity, really hoped he could make that split

 

[its like that]

Nibali will attack today. IMO Evans is targeting Thursday but will follow if Nibali goes

 

[Warhawk]

that was a pity, really hoped he could make that split

I'm surprised he wasn't able to hitch himself to the RSNT train that bridged the gap. Those last few guys who got dropped lost a boatload on the descent.

 

[maxmartin]

Nibali will attack today. IMO Evans is targeting Thursday but will follow if Nibali goes

Liqui has to send some very capable men into breakaway, then Nibali either attack on Colombier or downhill, then join his helper to ride as hard as possible to get over Richemond, then drive home downhill

 

[greenedge]

I am hoping for Wiggins to crack- if only to make the TDF exciting before the last ITT.

I do not expect the break to survive as the pace on the climbs/ descents will probably tell them back in.

I expect Nibali, Evans, JVDB and RSNT to put the hurt on Wiggins.
If I was BMC/ RSNT i would put TJVG and Gallopin in the break ( they are both high up in GC and can therefore threaten Sky ). That way Monfort/ Zubeldia and Evans will have hopefully cast off the Sky train quite early- hopefully leaving a vulnerable Wiggins exposed to *** attacks on the climbs and descents.

 

[Andre.J]

If i understand correctly, neither were leader beforehand. I think only Klöden was undisputed leader, with Frank not in top shape. The team decided to wait for the rest day to see how the situation was. Monfort asked for a free role. Not as leader, but without having to work for the others. From the looks of it, he got his wish.




Monfort is going for GC. He's not a natural climber and they won't give him any room to go in a break. And as a TT he also won't win a stage.

I wasnt certain of many things before this Tour, but one thing I was certain on was that Frank and Kloden were not going to do much....I therefore predicted Monfort should be made leader from the start.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Szmyd and basso will set an infernal pace and will split the field.

 

[Warhawk]

Ah, hell, why not. Lets have Basso, Monfort, TJVG, Rein, and Gallopin all attack together. Great fun will be had by all.

 

[maxmartin]

Ah, hell, why not. Lets have Basso, Monfort, TJVG, Rein, and Gallopin all attack together. Great fun will be had by all.

realistically they will just fall off SKY rocket

 

[maxmartin]

"I think [our tactics] will be the same as all the other teams we're going to attack now. They [Team Sky] have a gap and we need to attack," he told reporters. "When I put in the attack it's going to be full gas.

Carry on Van Den Broeck

 

[Magnus]

I didn't follow cycling in 1996. On paper it was monster stage - four 1st cat. or HC climbs. History book says top 8 (both in this stage and in Paris) finished within 20 seconds in that stage.

Yes 8 guys finished within 20 secs on the stage to Pamplona. But I think a better indication of what happened is to say that Indurain, Rominger and Olano lost 8'30".

 

[Magnus]

Really? What about Aubisque last year in Pau-Lourdes stage? Both are single climb stages. Aubisque is 16.4 at 7.1% while Grand Colombier is 17.4km at 7.1%. Aubisque is located at 1709m, Grand Colombier at 1501m. Aubisque was 42.5km from finish, Grand Colombier is 43km from finish. To remind you MJ group had 53 riders at finish and 30 more finished 15 seconds later... Small climb is bad news for those who will be dropped on Colombier and who are not in form (see Armstrong at Les Gets in TDF 10). For guys who challenge MJ Richemond will be piece of cake.

In terms of average gradient Aubisque and Gd Colombier sure is similar. But Gd Colombier has some 12-13% parts which makes all the difference (hopefully).

While Richemond might be piece of cake for contenders on form it's still useful terrain in the case that something happens on Gd Colombier.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Besides stage 16, today is probably the best chance to take time on Wiggins. However, I fear that the GC contenders don't feel the same way. They'll probably try a few half hearted attacks but dare not go all out in the fear of losing their place in the GC, not realising that continuously attacking is the only way to beat Wiggins and thinking "we'll wait till tomorrow, that's a better stage".