2012 Tour de France: Stage 10: Mácon → Bellegarde-sur-Valserine (195 km)

[vcampbell]

Because Froome outclimbed Wiggins in the Vuelta. Froome lost the Vuelta because he had to work and wait for Wiggins.

It's just half true, because Froome prepared only for the Vuelta, and Wiggins came back from a serious injury, but I also think that Froome could be stronger in the moutains, but we will see.

 

[barmaher]

Really? What about Aubisque last year in Pau-Lourdes stage? Both are single climb stages. Aubisque is 16.4 at 7.1% while Grand Colombier is 17.4km at 7.1%. Aubisque is located at 1709m, Grand Colombier at 1501m. Aubisque was 42.5km from finish, Grand Colombier is 43km from finish. To remind you MJ group had 53 riders at finish and 30 more finished 15 seconds later... Small climb is bad news for those who will be dropped on Colombier and who are not in form (see Armstrong at Les Gets in TDF 10). For guys who challenge MJ Richemond will be piece of cake.

I see four key differences between this stage and the stage last year.

1. The Aubisque descent was longer and less steep, meaning it was more difficult to get away.
2. There is a climb after the monster in today's stage, there was none in the Aubisque stage.
3. The last 13km was flat in the Aubisque stage, meaning that even time pinched or maintained on the descent would be difficult to maintain. This stage has a descent and a rise in the last 10km. Virtually no flat roads.
4. The GC situation meant that it was too risky to attack, given the challenges ahead. The big favourites were all in the mix. Today's GC situation means that Evans, Nibali et al really need to start picking up time.

I predict a riot.

 

[Kwibus]

It's just half true, because Froome prepared only for the Vuelta, and Wiggins came back from a serious injury, but I also think that Froome could be stronger in the moutains, but we will see.

Fair point.
I must say that I had the idea that Froome was in trouble on the Col de la Croix on sunday. He had to close a small gap during the climb, but it's mostly a wild guess.

 

[vcampbell]

Fair point.
I must say that I had the idea that Froome was in trouble on the Col de la Croix on sunday. He had to close a small gap during the climb, but it's mostly a wild guess.

I have seen that too, but who knows? Maybe it was just a bad moment, or a bad day. Almost everyone has got at least one. One day before he looked like the strongest. If he is not strong enough, than we will see that today or tomorrow.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Sagan trying to get in the break. Help for Nibali up the road, or just going for the sprint points?

 

[Pharazon]

Sagan in the break is REDICILOUSLY dangerous for sky

 

[wirral]

realistically they will just fall off SKY rocket

Monfort and Gallopin same team, so unlikely.

 

[cineteq]

Sagan trying to get in the break. Help for Nibali up the road, or just going for the sprint points?

Both Is Gilbert with him by any chance?

 

[Alex76]

Sagan in the break is REDICILOUSLY dangerous for sky

actually could force Sky into action:

- to protect Cav's bid for Green (if that's still something they are going after)
- to ensure that if Sagan is being used for Nibs later on, he doesnt get too far ahead, otr they can reel him back.

hopefully signs that today might be animated.....

 

[ahpAJ888]

Orica greenedge won't let never Sagan in a breakaway today...

 

[ahpAJ888]

Millar is trying to catch sagan, lemoine and grivko...

 

[The Hitch]

At 7km to the top of the Col de Grand Colombier the gradient is about 12%.

Let's say Nibali and Evans attack and Wiggins is struggling but Froome isn't.

What do Sky do?

They ttt him and limit his losses. Lets not forget nibali and Evans need about 5 minutes by Saturday week so sky have plenty of.time to play with.

 

[maltiv]

Sagan in the break is REDICILOUSLY dangerous for sky

It's ridiculous indeed! No way GreenEdge or Lotto will let Sagan get in a breakaway. Waste of energy really.

 

[RedZone]

Orica greenedge won't let never Sagan in a breakaway today...

Yeah I think its a pretty stupid move from Leakygas. Surely you want to force sky to do all the work, not give incentive for another team to help them?

 

[ahpAJ888]

Interesting factor is maybe that Nibali will satisfy with a podium whereas Evans want only the victory...Anyways, I think both are waiting pyrennees to try something.I personnaly think that Wiggins will crack in the Pyrennes .He will have a bad day and maybe Evans make the same bet...For me froome is currently huge value; he's the stronger in climb and if Wiggins fails, he ll win and maybe 2 mn will be enough because Froome could win the last ITT(form will be crucial)

 

[ahpAJ888]

Yeah I think its a pretty stupid move from Leakygas. Surely you want to force sky to do all the work, not give incentive for another team to help them?

Yes stupîd move from liquigas the race is blocked neither sky or Greenedge want to let Sagan in the breakaway .20 second gap and I doubt this gap will increase...

 

[SetonHallPirate]

I suspect Sagan is trying to get to the sprint point at 131 km. After that, presumably he'll either just sit on or sit up.

 

[Magnus]

IMHO, top3-top5 selection is a stage where significant time gaps occurs between riders who finished in top3-top5 in Paris.

So if Wiggins totally bonks today and ends out of top 5 in Paris the stage today isn't a top3-top5 stage?
I think that's a quite unnatural and backwards way to think about things.

You cannot compare multiple climb stage with MTF with the one we'll have today.

Of course you can compare them. I did and I said that I think the stage today is better suited to long range attacks.

 

[iZnoGouD]

This is a pretty good stage for Costa but i don't think he will try because he is high on GC, Valverde may give it a go

 

[dlwssonic]

Don't see sky getting dropped here....
Actually I find it hard to see where wiggins or froome will lose massive amounts of time.
But it will be great to see the other contenders try anyway. Hope for some aggressive racing, not like the UK postal train in stage 7.

 

[iZnoGouD]

strong counter-attack, Casar, Voeckler, Voigt, Zabriskie, Millar -.-

 

[Dedelou]

This is a pretty good stage for Costa but i don't think he will try because he is high on GC, Valverde may give it a go

I would want to see a breakaway attempt that include Cobo and Costa. But I don't think Sky will ever allow Cobo in a break, even if he is not a danger in GC. Matter of pride for both Froom and Wiggins

 

[cineteq]

I suspect Sagan is trying to get to the sprint point at 131 km. After that, presumably he'll either just sit on or sit up.

Sagan is NOT in the breakaway for points...he doesn't need them.

 

[dlwssonic]

I suspect sky are on the front to chase sagan down?

 

[Panda Claws]

I wonder why BMC does not send anyone in the break: Gilbert or so.