2012 Tour de France - stage 3: Orchies - Boulogne-sur-Mer (197km)

[DominicDecoco]

I WILL harass a nearby ant farm if we don't get proper racing in the last 25 km.

To big of a mess with hills and stuff in the final to make a decent prediction. Probably something with Sagan, Evans and Fabian, though.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Obvious Wiggins win is obvious.

 

[Froome19]

Key stage for Sagan's green ambitions.

45-35-30-26-22-20-18-16-
14-12-10-8-6-4-2 is the points drop off, so a top 3 is vital.

Are you sure?

Is it not 30 points for the winner tomorow?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Good shout, it's a Cat 2 stage tomorrow so -

30-25-22-
19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2

Less of a drop off, but less to start with anyway.

 

[Caruut]

I doubt Riis let Mørkøv go for another breakaway, but he might send out Lund or Nicki instead.

Why not? With a new sponsor in tow, and a difficulty in securing funding over the last couple of years, why wouldn't Riis want a man hogging the cameras on a lovely jersey in the break?

 

[Opalius]

what are you top 15?



What do you guys think?

Heh. Getting suggestions for tv2 manager?

 

[Panda Claws]

Gilbert ftw, he showed on stage one that he finally has the form to win on uphill sprints by winning the bunch sprint. I wonder if we might see Cancellara making another breakaway attempt, if so then he has a good chance.

Doubt it. The finish is tougher which means Fabian's extra weight slows him down a lot more. He still has a chance of winning but he won't be as good as he was on stage 1.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Doubt it. The finish is tougher which means Fabian's extra weight slows him down a lot more. He still has a chance of winning but he won't be as good as he was on stage 1.

Not sure how it is that much tougher, at least for the finish itself.

I;d rather ride 700m at 7% than 300m at 15%, then false flat, then a few 7% ramps, then a 5% finish straight.

But he didn't win their either.

 

[gustienordic]

Sagan, EBH, etc obvious... what about the darkhorses?

Rui Costa, Ryder, Dan Martin, Mollema, etc? Or is the climb not steep enough for these guys.

 

[Panda Claws]

Not sure how it is that much tougher, at least for the finish itself.

I;d rather ride 700m at 7% than 300m at 15%, then false flat, then a few 7% ramps, then a 5% finish straight.

But he didn't win their either.

Yes but the steeper you go, the more your weight counts as we all know. I doubt Fabian, but then again I'll be glad to be proven wrong.

 

[Froome19]

Good shout, it's a Cat 2 stage tomorrow so -

30-25-22-
19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2

Less of a drop off, but less to start with anyway.

Sagan will be looking for wins on stages 8, 12, 14 and 18, possibly

of those (4, 13 and 15)stages only 18 is a 45 pointer so it will be difficult for Sagan to get enough points to challenge.

He has 3 advantages though he worry be worrying as much about the Olympics and he can go for the intermediates and if he has any sense he will not be outside of the time limit on Stages 11 and 17.

 

[rghysens]

Doubt it. The finish is tougher which means Fabian's extra weight slows him down a lot more. He still has a chance of winning but he won't be as good as he was on stage 1.

Fabian Cancellara on a 20% ramp

Fabian Cancellara on a 15% ramp

Do you really think he has problems with 700m @ 7%?

 

[saosinfangirl]

Sagan 1st
Peter Velits top10

 

[Panda Claws]

Fabian Cancellara on a 20% ramp

Fabian Cancellara on a 15% ramp

Do you really think he has problems with 700m @ 7%?

God, I hate those examples: especially the RVV one.

Yeah, Cancellara did beat some guys on steep ramps.

But do you really think Boonen compares to Sagan, Gilbert, Valverde on a steep ramp????

The other one is better but still not exactly a top field on steep climbs if you ask me.

 

[burning]

God, I hate those examples: especially the RVV one.

Yeah, Cancellara did beat some guys on steep ramps.

But do you really think Boonen compares to Sagan, Gilbert, Valverde on a steep ramp????

The other one is better but still not exactly a top field on steep climbs if you ask me.

If Gilbert has his 2011 and Valverde pre-doping form, we wouldnt be talking about anybody but these two guys, I guess this stage is impossible to predict (There is a big array of riders who can win from Nibali to Freire imo)

 

[Panda Claws]

If Gilbert has his 2011 and Valverde pre-doping form, we wouldnt be talking about anybody but these two guys, I guess this stage is impossible to predict (There is a big array of riders who can win from Nibali to Freire imo)

True. I'll hand it to Fabian that he seems to be in better form than a lot of other contenders.

 

[Winnen]

I hope a surprise, maybe Mollema of VDB2. But I think it is Sagan all over again.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

What exactly does the last km look like? Is there a profile of the last few ks?

Sagan is a flat sprinter who can make it over the hills, as opposed to the more traditional classics types that sprint uphill. If there is enough flat after the slope tomorrow, Sagan will do it again. But, without that bit of respite, he won't be able to come around guys like Evans, Valverde, Gerrans, Canc (there are a bunch in this climber-y category).

 

[FF'Wilco]

Looks like im the only one who think that Sagan wont survive and wont fight for the win. The climb is short but very steep. His sprinting abilities and explosiveness might still not be enough for Gilbert, Valverde or Mollema.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Looks like im the only one who think that Sagan wont survive and wont fight for the win. The climb is short but very steep. His sprinting abilities and explosiveness might still not be enough for Gilbert, Valverde or Mollema.

I hope you're right, but I don't really believe it.

 

[jens_attacks]

vino i think will be in the break of the day,going for polka dots and maybe the stage win

astana will attack hard tomorrow,watch out for max and kash !!

otherwise valverde will beat phil in the sprint

oh almost forgot,voeckler will certainly go ballistic in the last 20 km,

 

[theyoungest]

Looks like im the only one who think that Sagan wont survive and wont fight for the win. The climb is short but very steep. His sprinting abilities and explosiveness might still not be enough for Gilbert, Valverde or Mollema.

Did you see that Tirreno stage he won? That climb was much steeper than this one.

One thing in favour of your argument could be that it seemed like Sagan couldn't follow Chavanel up the steepest part of the climb yesterday. But maybe he didn't think that move would stick.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

vino i think will be in the break of the day,going for polka dots and maybe the stage win

astana will attack hard tomorrow,watch out for max and kash !!

otherwise valverde will beat phil in the sprint

oh almost forgot,voeckler will certainly go ballistic in the last 20 km,

What a nice and positive post.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

One thing in favour of your argument could be that it seemed like Sagan couldn't follow Chavanel up the steepest part of the climb yesterday. But maybe he didn't think that move would stick.

But the steepest part yesterday was 17%.

Not sure how steep this climb is though, but if it's a consistent 7,4% for 700m Sagan should handle it easily I think, considering TA.

 

[phanatic]

Does have good form again? He might have a shot at this stage.

Edit: jens_attacks beat me to it