2012 Tour de France - stage 3: Orchies - Boulogne-sur-Mer (197km)

[Logic-is-your-friend]

As far as dark horses go... Devenyns could do well, though i don't think he'd win. Maybe Poels as well?

 

[taiwan]

Okay, he can play too...



Maybe would simply be a matter of needing to survive all the way to Paris...
After all; you can't go in the breakaways everyday. Unless he's going for the Ultimate Fighter Prize.

OT you should have an avatar of the original ginger viking - Vicky

 

[BoxCoppi]

As for dark horses: How about a guy like Julien Simon? Does it have to flatten out a bit more before he can get a top placing, or would he have a shot tomorrow?

 

[Froome19]

As for dark horses: How about a guy like Julien Simon? Does it have to flatten out a bit more before he can get a top placing, or would he have a shot tomorrow?

He was very good on the uphill finishes in Catalunya so I would say he is a very possibly possibility for the stage win.

But yet this

187 Julien Simon (Fra) Saur - Sojasun 0:04:13

Makes me hesitate big time as the finish on stage 1 also suited him, was it a mechanical/crash or has he no form whatsoever?

 

[dabaideschbi]

i hope sagan takes it...

 

[BoxCoppi]

He was very good on the uphill finishes in Catalunya so I would say he is a very possibly possibility for the stage win.

But yet this
Makes me hesitate big time as the finish on stage 1 also suited him, was it a mechanical/crash or has he no form whatsoever?

He had a crash not too far from the finish on stage one. 10-20 km out I think:

http://www.saur-sojasun.com/actualites/304-dure-journee-a-seraing-mais-rien-de-catastrophique.html

Will be interesting to see him on this finish then

 

[Sergy Belgium]

Chavanel takes this no problem. When he smells home soil he wins this 2 fingers in his nose.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Maybe Mollema and Poels can do what they did last Vuelta. Only then win because there is no Jrod (and because I ignore Gilbert, Valverde and Sagan to remain optimistic about the chances of my fellow Dutchmen)

Also, Vanendert might show himself.

 

[Old&slow]

How do you all feel about the chances of Peter Velits, Mollema and Chavanel tomorrow? Is it a good finish for them?

 

[TDF2012]

How do you all feel about the chances of Peter Velits, Mollema and Chavanel tomorrow? Is it a good finish for them?

I think Chavanel has a very good chance tomorrow. With the turns on the final climb it's not exactly Cancellara's bread and butter. And with Chavanel only 7 seconds down he has a great chance to take Yellow if he attacks at the right time. But Cancellara is a warrior if there ever was one. But I still expect Chavanel to give it a go. He has stated his attacking ambitions at this Tour in previous interviews.

I will be cheering him on for the win. Top 3 for Sagan will be good enough but he can't be written off. Some got 9/1 on him earlier when prices were released but the current odds of around 7/4 hold no value. Lastly the Evans/Gilbert duo cannot be ruled out. No chance of Wiggins attacking in my opinion. Only responding to other attacks from GC favourites.

 

[mwallack3]

Is the finishing 700m at 7.4% to steep for Sagan to do what he did in stage 1?

 

[Steady]

Just put one pound on Robert Kiserlovski at 150.00 in odds

We all know he is capable surprising and winning this stage!

 

[roundabout]

I think that the finish is easier than what ASO says.

Also, last 20km seem quite nervous, especially the section with the 2 4th category climbs before Mont Lambert. Hopefully there won't be any serious falls.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Maybe Mollema and Poels can do what they did last Vuelta. Only then win because there is no Jrod (and because I ignore Gilbert, Valverde and Sagan to remain optimistic about the chances of my fellow Dutchmen)

Also, Vanendert might show himself.

Vanendert doesn't seem to be in top shape yet. It also might not be steep enough for him. I'd rather expect Devenyns.

 

[The Barb]

I really like Chavanel's chances today (particularly at 20-1). After his Prologue performance and the attack on the steepest part of the final climb on Stage 1, I think he's in the form of his life.

I also think Cadel will try to put time on Wiggins on the second to last hill. In Stage 4 last year he took 6 seconds from him on the final hill, but that was 2km @ 7.2%. If he wants to get 10 seconds or more he can't leave it until the final 700m @ 7.4% climb. He needs to go with 8km to go, get 5 seconds over the top, then try to extend it with his superior descending skills.

Damn this sets up to be an interesting stage.

 

[c&cfan]

canc à lá strade bianchi or sagan.. a la sagan?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If this comes down to the uphill sprint, I back José Joaquín Rojas to come 5th.

 

[Frosty]

Isn't there the possibility of an anti-climactic breakaway win?

Maybe if the break is only composed of people several minutes down then they might stay away - Radioshack will want to have men left towards the end to defend the yellow jersey against late attacks.

 

[Trofinios]

canc à lá strade bianchi or sagan.. a la sagan?

Stage not tough enough for Canc to attack from outside like in SB. But he might still win in another way. Sagan top 3 for sure.

My money however is on Gilbert. Don't phail me Phil.

 

[BillytheKid]

Maybe if the break is only composed of people several minutes down then they might stay away - Radioshack will want to have men left towards the end to defend the yellow jersey against late attacks.

The Mont Lambert is 8.4% at 1.3K. I am thinking a winning attack will come here. It may be hard for them to defend. It will be a difficult day if they have no help again. Put a man in the break?

There are several rippels from there to the finishing climb.

 

[blaxland]

I predict one of the tour Top GC men will loose time in stage 3?who will it be?Sagan will win the stage"

 

[Frosty]

The Mont Lambert is 8.4% at 1.3K. I am thinking a winning attack will come here. It may be hard for them to defend. It will be a difficult day if they have no help again. Put a man in the break?

There are several rippels from there to the finishing climb.

They did more men (five) in the remains of the peloton on stage 1 than any other team. They should be capable of giving a good chase although if quite a few guys slip off the front and work together then it could be difficult. Wonder if Cancellara may be tempted to mark some guys himself?

 

[greenedge]

I am waiting to see an epic battle between Hoogerland and Morkov.

My picks at the start were Jeremy Roy/ Rui Costa but i doubt that shall now happen, even though i expect both to feature.

I think the stage shall be won by Gilbert but other riders like Sagan, Goss, Chavanel, Mollema, Vanendert, Martin, Cancellara, EBH, Evans, Valverde and others could also win.

I think there is a 50/50 chance that Evans/ Nibali might attack to gain time on Wiggins.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Sagan I think.

Mollema could do good here also.

 

[manafana]

sagan will be involved but this will be bit tactical no doubt, chav is good call maybe albasini again.