2012 Tour de France: Stage 4: Abbeville → Rouen (214.5km)

[BillytheKid]

Try 2.7kms out.

Even better to prove my point.

 

[TRDean]

Fighting for wheels, does become more visable as the traffic drops away in the final 500-200 meters, but it also allows for the type of bumping of wheels and risk taking your talking about. If your doing that when the field has some numbers, your going to cause crashes.

People fight for position all the time, but what we see at the very end of a sprint, I would say is not the typical stuff just back up the road of the finish.

I'm not disagreeing with you...not sure what your point is? My original comment was generated because when these crashes happen there is always..."its the same old guys" At 1.5 K left it was the fast men in the general area of the crash. I do disagree in that it was a "sprinters" crash. The guys are going balls out and there was a touch of wheels or whatever. Anyway, it is the nature of sprinting...there will be crashes and of course it will always be the same old fellas...the ones that are setting up for the sprint. Now I would be shocked to have seen that Gesink caused the crash at that point lol.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Looking at the stage finishing times, as opposed to the GC amended classification, is it possible that some of the Dutch lads were down in the crash?

Mollema, Poels and Kruijswijk seem to have come home amongst some of the downed sprinters.

 

[TRDean]

Even better to prove my point.

What is your point? Just want to argue?

 

[Froome19]

The PR talk has been going on for months. Phil and Paul were at it again. Stating the team trains together, has raced together all year. They '"don't even need to speak on the road." No Paul implied they just know where to be and when. Sad thing is I haven't seen that once. Just doesn't add up.
.

Team Sky? Nah, they're helping Froome or Cav. Nice try. Come back to reality. Or better yet tell Sky to drop the PR garbage and be honest. Their house of cards is crumbling.

You say everything is falling apart due to isolating Wiggins then you claim that they are going for Froome and Cav.

And P & P are not part of the Sky PR contrary to popular beliefs.

Oh and one more thing. Cav is very good at praising his team mates for their efforts. But he isn't good at recipricating their efforts to help him on the road. He won't help Wiggins GC at all. Eisel might, but not a lot.

He will because otherwise he wont get any help at the Olympics.

He's calmer now, than he used to be, that's for sure.

Evans or GH?

 

[Galic Ho]

He's calmer now, than he used to be, that's for sure.
I repeat, at this stage, the GC men are all nervous.
No need for GH to start frothing at the mouth, every time
he reads something he doesn't necessarily agree with.
I'm all for healthy debate and disagreement, but with
the tone control set.

Reading? No. Seeing quite clearly on STAGE 1 Bradley Wiggins in foul mood on the first road stage. People can play it however they want, but no team leader should have been in that scenario he was on day one and left alone. Do note, as I stated yesterday, that Sivtsov, the sole support that day, is gone.

Actually Evans looks calm. So too Menchov, you know, the nearly everyone said was past it. Look at Nibali today, cool as a cucumber but a challenge arose. His head is screwed on very well right now. Samu is off the back...ok he did look mad at the neutral service guy. But that is neutral service, not his team. Other GC guys...we'll see in the mountains on Saturday.

Contrast with Wiggins. Yesterdays stuff, day 1, team mate crashing and then add in the not so nice memory he had of not finishing last year. He's arguably the most nervous of the bunch and his body language at the end of the stages shows that. I actually think he is relieved to make it to the end of a stage after last year. His team though, are not making it easy to relax. One person I know was claiming he was crying into his arms after the first stage at the team bus. Can't confirm that of course...alternatively he vould have just been tired, but he was yelling and waving his arms erratically before. All because he was not a happy camper.

Yeah, I get Sky fans and some Brits don't like this being called out. All the Evans die hard fans got upset in 2009 as well. Sh1te happens and it's how you deal with it that makes the biggest difference. Doesn't mean you don't call it out. Does a rider pick themself up and stay collected? Or do they brood and get all shirty with people around them? Evans had tells in all the years he had one or two issues. Years he fell short of where he wanted to be. When he had a major meltdown...it was obvious before hand. Patterns that indicated mental pressure. Stuff he didn't and shouldn't have been doing behaviour wise because it is negative. Things he erased from his manner and the way he raced.

 

[thehog]

The PR talk has been going on for months. Phil and Paul were at it again. Stating the team trains together, has raced together all year. They '"don't even need to speak on the road." No Paul implied they just know where to be and when. Sad thing is I haven't seen that once. Just doesn't add up.

As someone said, the hype is wearing pretty thin right now. They'd have been smarter not to hype Brad. Because as you said, he likes all his ducks lined up in a row and if they don't fall, it will affect him more mentally than physically. The cracks are metaphors for the support not being there. We were told it would be, that the team was super strong. If Sky fails to deliver on a big day, the whole ship will probably implode. BMC on the other hand is playing it cool. Haven't hyped themselves, haven't talked enlessly to the press and also the fans haven't made excessive declarations about them. IMO they have played their cards wrong and I have seen enough to suggest Wiggins will have troubles very soon.

Of course he could turn it around...big IF though. Big IF, because the team and his longheld notions and expectations on what will be given/happen are based on the teams PR talk. Holes have emerged in all this. It's all about looking at the patterns. I can see Wiggins having to do a lot more work than he every imagined and I don't think it will grait well with him psychologically. That's the type of cracks I am implying. Cracking under the pressure. He's the type of guy when that happens, he'll get ****ed. Probably after the crap hits the fan.

Put it this way. I think the GC riders for Liquigas, BMC, Katusha, Lotto, Quickstep, Movistar and RSNT probably feel a lot more secure now and calmer than Wiggins is.

I'll stick by what I said weeks back. Sky will regret bringing Cav and Eisel plus aiming for Wiggins on GC. Something will give. Let's not kid ourselves either. They entered as many people's maillot jaune favourite...they think it's theirs and so does Wiggins. Does anyone really think he'd be happy with a top 5? Or just a podium at best?

Oh and one more thing. Cav is very good at praising his team mates for their efforts. But he isn't good at recipricating their efforts to help him on the road. He won't help Wiggins GC at all. Eisel might, but not a lot.

I agree with you 100%. I would add the longer Cav goes without another win he'll get p1ssed and the friction will grow. Also the more Sagan is seen as the ace stage winner at the Tour the more Cav will get annoyed. It won't be long before Cav will do something dispite his team which will be at detriment to Wiggins.

Reality states Brad has only 4.5 riders working for him. Evans has 8. That will be telling in week 3.

Still it's a weak course. Wiggins just needs to win the time trials and hold on for the rest.

But the last few days we're seeing UK Postal is not really good as they were telling us.

 

[LaFleur]

Apparently TJVG has been struggling to stay with the group for the last 2 days. (according to Taaramäe)

Taaramäe also had told Moncoutie yesterday: "This is your 12th tour, you have won 2 stages, done alot of breakaways in the mountains. Why not try something on the flat." Moncoutie answered: "Interesting..."

Also, Cavendish had blamed Farrar after the crash and Taaramäe said that Cavendish had fallen yesterday too and blamed Cherel then...

 

[cineteq]

agreed.
all but Ryder Hesjedal that man is ice cooooooool

Nothing fazes him, He's from BC

 

[cineteq]

I agree with you 100%. I would add the longer Cav goes without another win he'll get p1ssed and the friction will grow. Also the more Sagan is seen as the ace stage winner at the Tour the more Cav will get annoyed. It won't be long before Cav will do something dispite his team which will be at detriment to Wiggins.

"Saw what happened today?" He says to Wiggins, and pouting he adds "This is your fault, I want my old train back".

 

[BoxCoppi]

I agree with you 100%. I would add the longer Cav goes without another win he'll get p1ssed and the friction will grow. Also the more Sagan is seen as the ace stage winner at the Tour the more Cav will get annoyed. It won't be long before Cav will do something dispite his team which will be at detriment to Wiggins.

Reality states Brad has only 4.5 riders working for him. Evans has 8. That will be telling in week 3.

Still it's a weak course. Wiggins just needs to win the time trials and hold on for the rest.

But the last few days we're seeing UK Postal is not really good as they were telling us.

This.

It's not the Sky I had expected. Doesn't seem 100 % focused and the other guys just seem 10 % sharper than in earlier races this year.
I'm sure that guys like Nibali and Sanchez will take advantages of any holes in the Sky armor in due time. Could be an interesting GC after all.

 

[Galic Ho]

You say everything is falling apart due to isolating Wiggins then you claim that they are going for Froome and Cav.

And P & P are not part of the Sky PR contrary to popular beliefs.

Lies. Once again, get it right. I said previously on a separate thread over a week ago that Froome could arguably be the GC guy if Wiggins has issues. I was not the only one who found it telling that Sky had more guys helping Froome on stage one than Wiggins. I at the time said he was probably feeling insecure and jealous...because the last GC he was beaten by whom? I haven't said Froome is their GC man this race...far too early to tell that. Will be obvious though come the third week.

As for Cav. Nope, another lie or misinterpretation on your behalf. I've quite clearly stated many times Cav is the goods, the winner, the man you can bank on. Again, and again and again. I've mentioned his selection as being that of a bonehead and *** and something even LA and Bruyneel in the Postal days wouldn't have done. Ever. I've been saying that Sky's ambitions of splitting everything is dumb, one rider should have been ignored (IMO Cav and thus Eisel) and this duality objective is unfeasable. In short I've been saying Wiggins has weaknesses and to counter them, more help was needed. Cav isn't weak. But he isn't helpful to Wiggins and should not have been brought to the Tour. Basically, because he has IMO something will give and it won't be on Cav's side.

Worst case scenario. Cav leaves the Tour. Eisel goes and Wiggins is down three support riders HE DOES need. You may not see it, but he does. So when he is isolated, those fears, well they are within reach of him. As I said, when he is isolated on a mountain, left alone, that's when his true colours will show. It's going to happen. Whether he pulls on is debatable. He knows where he needs help. That's the PR part I am refering to. The hype. It does not match reality. What the team have said and leaked to the press isn't realistic. But so many believed the hype. They haven't addressed these issues, heck they've completely avoided them. Not smart and not sensible. I suspect that is already rubbing at Wiggins. Everyone has doubts...those are more than likely some of his and being isolated on the first stage really is a wake up call. They better respond in the mountains...

Oh and for the record. Phil and Paul are the official blabber mouths for many teams. Lance and Bruyneel and not appropriate subject matter this year. Naturally they talk about something else...why not the most hyped topic this Tour? A lot, almost the majority of what they say follows press releases crafted by teams PR guys or what another journalist or publishing firm has written. Occasionally they give their own interpretation, which implies they question. So mostly they don't question, they just repeat team gobbledeegoobeeglock, aka PR talk, which is only ever self serving. Hence most of it is pure BS and why they annoy the bejesus out of most cycling fans. Short story, they are PR guys. FFS it use to be Sherwens role for Motorola. He just does it for many teams these days...guys he excessively favours, one of whom is Wiggins and his team, Sky.

 

[ferryman]

Monday Cav finished 1st, Sagan 6th.

Today Cav crashed, so Sagan finished 5th.

He's found his level anyway.

Very mature. No wait, I could be wrong, we are all obviously missing the point of your rapier like wit. Mr Sideburns would understand no doubt.

 

[Galic Ho]

Wiggins also has the greatest expectations on him, which he helped create by rocketing throught the season. Cadel opted out this year probably probably becasue he knows nerves can overtake you.

That's the a portion of the psychological approach. People make presumptuions, have expectations, do well early on, people talk, hype grows and sadly they sometimes believe too much of it. Then reality hits. Reality is a biatch. She hits hard. Much wiser IMO, to play it cool, avoid the hype, remain calm, but also quietly confident in your abilities. Cadel is doing that. Wiggins should have done that as well...but Sky played their card long ago. We'll see how this folds out. At least it makes for some interesting viewing and hypothesising on what is really going on.

Kind of like the drama at Astana in 2009. Also the Lotto garbage with Evans and Jurgen van den Broecke. I don't think Cadel rocketed as much this season around April because he was sick. BMC actually could have really used him in the Ardennes. Gilbert wasn't 2011 uber awesome Gilbert. But you have a point.

 

[RedheadDane]

agreed.
all but Ryder Hesjedal that man is ice cooooooool

Whadaya mean? Look at what I posted in the Garmin-Sharp thread. Hesjedal is totally cracking under the preassure!

 

[the asian]

What happened to the TGBM and Kruijswik?

 

[Lexman]

Just curious..who actually caused the crash? Gilbert said it is the same riders making dangerous moves??

Well Eisel said on Sporza Hondo and Pettachhi came along which made Goss (who apparently has a reputation if one believes Freire) dive in a space between Eisel and Greipel, except there was no space so Eisel fell and took everyone down ...

http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/Tour/120704_TDF_reacties_buitenlanders

 

[Galic Ho]

Looking at the stage finishing times, as opposed to the GC amended classification, is it possible that some of the Dutch lads were down in the crash?

Mollema, Poels and Kruijswijk seem to have come home amongst some of the downed sprinters.

One went down. But I thought it was Renshaw. Which ever Rabo guy it was they rolled rather heavily. Next worst looking landing after Hunter. I thought Haedon, Cav, Renshaw, Farrar and Hunter were the five guys who went down. Plus Eisel of course.

 

[thehog]

This.

It's not the Sky I had expected. Doesn't seem 100 % focused and the other guys just seem 10 % sharper than in earlier races this year.
I'm sure that guys like Nibali and Sanchez will take advantages of any holes in the Sky armor in due time. Could be an interesting GC after all.

It's so hard to position yourself and team in a peloton of 200 riders. Having Cav, Eisel and EBH manovouring for stage wins puts the team out. Rogers and Porte are not good enough to hold position in a sprint hungry pack. Thus Wiggins gets lost. I still feel Thursday & Friday will be telling before Saturday. The longer Cav loses and the longer Wiggins is out positioned the dynamic of the team will fracture. That will culminate on Saturday when 95% of Sky will be off the back on the first climb.

That overly confident meeting with ASO 3 weeks looks all the more stupid now. They were so confident of the win they wanted to show all their data?

 

[woodenswan]

Whadaya mean? Look at what I posted in the Garmin-Sharp thread. Hesjedal is totally cracking under the preassure!

the man is in pieces, clearly nice one

 

[Galic Ho]

Well Eisel said on Sporza Hondo and Pettachhi came along which made Goss (who apparently has a reputation if one believes Freire) dive in a space between Eisel and Greipel, except there was no space so Eisel fell and took everyone down ...

http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/Tour/120704_TDF_reacties_buitenlanders

Oscar Freire caused yesterdays crash. I don't believe a word he says until it's confirmed by someone else in the peloton. Your description of three riders above sounds exactly like what he and Greipel did yesterday. Two were there one thought he could squeeze through (Freire) and took the one who did nothing wrong out. Thus crash ensues.

 

[RedheadDane]

the man is in pieces, clearly nice one

Stole it off JV's Twitter. That was actually the third such picture.

 

[l.Harm]

Like I thought nothing happened to Kruijswijk and Mollema (and Gesink btw). They were behind the crash, Kruijswijk was the first not to crash he said. Renshaw indeed was the one who crashed.

 

[Galic Ho]

Galic Hopeless once again:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/nervous-evans-relieved-bmcs-fortunes-remain-intact
Please try and keep up, before you launching into usual attack dog mode of reply.

Imo, ALL the GC men have to be nervous, given what tends to happen in the Tour's first week or so.

Funny. Body language says otherwise. Yes, take the liberal interpretation that everyone is nervous. But there are varying levels of nervousness across the peloton and how everyone reacts is different. That's a universal rule. It's naturally implied. Your article proves one thing and it isn't an absolute measurement, but a vague generic interpretation, being that everyone is nervous.

The universal rule is though, how do you react? My point, was that universally, some riders look more nervous and I was giving evidence which suggest this may be the case. Short story, I was measuring their apparent nerves in contrast to another based on patterns. You know, the damn obvious stuff you can find glaringly in the dark. Hence why I mentioned Evans in 2009. Big contrast to last year and this year. It's all part of who he is, who he was and thus what we can reasonably deduce as expected behaviour from him in the near future. Then analyse all the riders to get a better idea on how people are coping and what could be an issue. Menchov is always a clear read. He's either bad or good. No middle ground. He looks good right now, thus I suspect he is in very good form. Sky...yeah not so good. Cav was looking great till he fell. But he always picks himself up well.

Not hard to fathom. What the guy I replied to about Evans he acknowledged had changed in terms of his behaviour and character. Hence why I replied.

 

[Galic Ho]

well to me it is your last paragraph that seems like a fabrication. and yeas, obviously i was also thinking about Evans' diff incidents "off the court", but it is not the main reason why i think he's more of a nervous guy than Wiggins. his facial expressions, his interviews, and yes, his need for a number of domestiques with more or less the sole task of shepherding him during stages. (im a huge fan of his btw. just to make things clear as there's quite a number of jumpy members out there) as for sky, well they have been functioning well all season, so im not sure u should read that much into one mishap. we shall see of course, it's not like we know half of the things that are going on

You stated Evans asks for certain things. Yes, but it's two fold. He asks and knows the help is there and the guys are WILLING to help all the time. That's not nerves, it's confidence. Thus it shows in his riding style, his teams riding style and his demeanor and body language.

Wiggins on the other hand has preconceptions about what is going to happen. he asked for things, the team told him and the world they would be there. That's part of the hype. There is also the fact BMC pulled it off last year. Confidence in a model that has been PROVEN to work. Sky couldn't even last 10 days for Wiggins. They got him to seven days. So he doesn't know. He isn't as assured as he could be. That's one fundamental difference between the two riders. He lack the certainty in a GT as important as Sky have made this Tour. Evans doesn't. That's an element one would be wise to factor in. So when his preconceived ideas don't manifest on the road, it's wise to question how is it affecting him? Is he more nervous? Are there signs? Yes and no it isn't good that a case can be made. Especially given the indicators, the precursory signs are not present around Evans. Thus Evans is not the more nervous of the two. He's the calmer one.