2012 Tour de France: Stage 4: Abbeville → Rouen (214.5km)

[King Of The Wolds]

Generally the poor job is due to positioning which he got right this year

Not quite...

2009 - won his first
2010 - his form improved throughout, was horrible to start with and unstoppable by the end
2011 - got Feillu'd

In the Giro, he's been outsmarted by Petacchi a couple of times early. Won his first this year though.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Cav is indeed still the favourite but I dont think he will win..

Well, quite. Cav may have a 40% chance of winning, Greipel 30%, and the rest 30% combined. That would mean Cav's favourite, but you would say you don't think he'll win because he's less than 50% chance of winning. To say you think somebody else has a better chance of winning, as you did, is a bit silly, given Cav's Tour record.

 

[Froome19]

Well, quite. Cav may have a 40% chance of winning, Greipel 30%, and the rest 30% combined. That would mean Cav's favourite, but you would say you don't think he'll win because he's less than 50% chance of winning. To say you think somebody else has a better chance of winning, as you did, is a bit silly, given Cav's Tour record.

It is ot a random prediction it takes into account the sprinters' and their leadouts' perfomances on stage 2 and the form which has been demonstrated so far and the Olympics amongst other things.

 

[WinterRider]

Well, quite. Cav may have a 40% chance of winning, Greipel 30%, and the rest 30% combined. That would mean Cav's favourite, but you would say you don't think he'll win because he's less than 50% chance of winning. To say you think somebody else has a better chance of winning, as you did, is a bit silly, given Cav's Tour record.

Those are some optimistic numbers. Based on past performance Cav is 70-80% to win, and Greipel 10%. But I'll give you that it's maybe Cav 60% to Greipel's 20% given the relative differences of their leadouts compared to last year.

 

[The Sheep]

What are these percentages based on? Some peer-reviewed research would be good.

 

[Ney the Viking]

With the weather forecast for tomorrow im with Greipel for a chance. If the weather lets up, it has cavendish all over it

 

[DominicDecoco]

Hopefully tommorrows recipe will consist of:

Ingredients
Large amount of rain
Plenty of crosswinds
Great amount of punctures and mechanicals
Great scenery
196 underweight bike riders
Cold temperatures
Thousands of spectators
And finally 1/4 cup of tomato sauce

Warning! - do not add crashes into this meal. If crashes occur they could potentially ruin the meal.

Along a large stretch of french road, stir together the rain, crosswinds, 196 bike riders, thousands of spectators and tomato sauce. - If preferred add a couple of hills and technical descents -. Add panic and chaos to the french road. Stirring for 30 minutes will result in puntures, gaps and grumpy sportif directeurs. Warning!: Stirring for too long and with an overuse of written ingredients can result in crashes.

Served as mass sprint or breakaway win at cold temperetures in great sceneries.

Ready in: 5-6 hours.

 

[Old&slow]

What are these percentages based on? Some peer-reviewed research would be good.

I think his numbers are fairly accurate in the last 3 Tours there were 7 sprint stages each Tour Cav won 6, 5 and 5. 2 of those sprints he was not involved in because of either crash or the steepness of the uphill finish. Including stage 2 of this years Tour that is 17 wins in 22 sprints or 17 wins in 20 sprints he was involved in. Pretty close to what the previous poster was arguing.

 

[taiwan]

TBH seeing as the finish is slightly technical, I fancy Cav and Goss to cope with that better. Petacchi's (and Hondo's) experience may be useful also.

 

[asdfgh101]

The bump is ~ 2.1km @ 3.9%

The false flat that follows soon after is ~ 2.5km @ 1.2%

 

[williamp78]

What are these percentages based on? Some peer-reviewed research would be good.

Perhaps we should organise a regional ethics committee approved double blind randomised controlled trial?

 

[richtea]

What are these percentages based on? Some peer-reviewed research would be good.

I ran a quick Monte Carlo analysis in a spare moment at work that reinforces those conclusions. I'll fax you the results.

 

[TDF2012]

See the talk is all about Cavendish and Greipel. Virtually everyone seeing this as a 2 biker race.

I would have to throw Matt Goss in to the mix. He has to get a result from tomorrows stage. He has spoken out about his desire to win the green Jersey. Well current standings for Sagan, Cavendish and Goss:

Peter Sagan: 116 Points
Mark Cavendish: 73 Points
Matt Goss: 55 Points

Goss cannot afford to keep letting the points slide not that he could have done much more than he has so far in this Tour. It's almost getting to that all or nothing stage for Goss. He has to get Top 3 at least and really needs to somehow pull off that illusive Grand Tour win over Cavendish although I won't hold my breath.

Either way I am on Goss for Top 3 tomorrow at nice odds. But the weather could turn this stage in to a complete disaster run.

 

[Fetisoff]

Sagan to fall off the bike while performing another *** celebration, with EBH taking the stage.

But seriously though, Greipel to take the stage, Morkov to take another 3-4 mountain points. Maybe a Vino attack on the last bump before the finish

 

[Froome19]

I think his numbers are fairly accurate in the last 3 Tours there were 7 sprint stages each Tour Cav won 6, 5 and 5. 2 of those sprints he was not involved in because of either crash or the steepness of the uphill finish. Including stage 2 of this years Tour that is 17 wins in 22 sprints or 17 wins in 20 sprints he was involved in. Pretty close to what the previous poster was arguing.

If only this was last years Tour, unfortunately we are playing a whole different ball game now.

 

[Gloin22]

 

[WinterRider]

I think his numbers are fairly accurate in the last 3 Tours there were 7 sprint stages each Tour Cav won 6, 5 and 5. 2 of those sprints he was not involved in because of either crash or the steepness of the uphill finish. Including stage 2 of this years Tour that is 17 wins in 22 sprints or 17 wins in 20 sprints he was involved in. Pretty close to what the previous poster was arguing.

I was just guestimating Cav's success rate in sprint stages at Tour over the past 3 years, couldn't be bothered to do the math, but thanks to Old&slow for backing me up.

I did the same for Greipel who had 1 win last year in 8ish sprint stages, but I chose 10% since its a nice round number.

 

[WinterRider]

If only this was last years Tour, unfortunately we are playing a whole different ball game now.

Cav is still the overwhelming favourite in any flat stage. Yesterday was the proof of this. He worked his way up through the field with no help, and still outsprinted Greipel who had the perfect leadout.

Non only that, he said afterwards that he started too late, and if he'd gone a bit earlier he would have won much more comfortably. As mouthy as he is, I believe that to be a genuine comment. I think he's got quite a bit to show us still in this Tour.

 

[cineteq]

Hopefully tommorrows receipe will consist of:

Ingredients
Large amount of rain
Plenty of crosswinds
Great amount of punctures and mechanicals
Great scenery
196 underweight bike riders
Cold temperatures
Thousands of spectators
And finally 1/4 cup of tomato sauce

Warning! - do not add crashes into this meal. If crashes occur they could potentially ruin the meal.

Along a large stretch of french road, stir together the rain, crosswinds, 196 bike riders, thousands of spectators and tomato sauce. - If preferred add a couple of hills and technical descents -. Add panic and chaos to the french road. Stirring for 30 minutes will result in puntures, gaps and grumpy sportif directeurs. Warning!: Stirring for too long and with an overuse of written ingredients can result in crashes.

Served as mass sprint or breakaway win at cold temperetures in great sceneries.

Ready in: 5-6 hours.

Love your recipe!

 

[Chap01]

So, What could be the top 10 for tomorrow?

 

[H2OUUP2]

Ah, I'll go with Farrar. Maybe he can tie Sagan with 2 career TDF Stage wins.
4th of July as well. Garmin may go hard for it.

 

[Steady]

So, What could be the top 10 for tomorrow?

1.Cav
2.Goss
3.Greipel
4.Kittel
5.Petacchi
6.Sagan
7.Farrar
8.Renshaw
9.Hutarovich
10.J.J Haedo

 

[TDF2012]

Ah, I'll go with Farrar. Maybe he can tie Sagan with 2 career TDF Stage wins

Didn't Farrar crash twice today? Carried some cuts and bruises as well.

 

[manafana]

farrar prob felling todays falls in my view,

goss to keep up with cav, greipel isnt that cofident so rain wouldnt help him.

 

[H2OUUP2]

Didn't Farrar crash twice today? Carried some cuts and bruises as well.

I don't know. Watching when I get home from work. I know who won and that's it.