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2012 Tour de France: Stage 6: Épernay → Metz (207.5km)

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Great post TDF2012 and you should be congratulated for your enthusiasm.
I also enjoy reading longer well thought out posts. I also should congratulate Froome19 whose own well written and though out previews were de-stickied for unknown reasons.

But yeah, paragraphs are your friend:).
 
Jun 27, 2011
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One Eyed Aussie said:
Great post TDF2012 and you should be congratulated for your enthusiasm.
I also enjoy reading longer well thought out posts. I also should congratulate Froome19 whose own well written and though out previews were de-stickied for unknown reasons.

But yeah, paragraphs are your friend:).

I agree it was great because it wasn't a cut and paste. It shows some thought being put into the post instead of a quick lashing out like most. I am more of reader rather than a poster, but do enjoy a thought out perspective.
 
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Wilba 60

If Henderson and Impey peel off at the same time, Greipel wins. Goss isn't fast enough to compete in that way. First sprint, he couldn't move forward against cav at all. Second flat sprint, he was out of position but when in the wind, wasn't moving forward. He just isn't strong enough.

I still saying going early off an Impey lead out is the way to go, exactly like stage 5, but get the timing right. Especially useful on more technical finishes. The other option is to go from Greipel's wheel, any further back and it's definitely not going to work, and as already stated, I don't think he's strong enough to come over the top from there.

This is just Greipel and Goss head to head, throwing Cav in makes it a little more complicated, but I'd say the extra complication lends itself more to the early lead out than any other tactic.
 
Hope this is ok, but here is TDF2012's post again with paragraphs as im somewhat reading challenged. :) Make it easier to read and comment on which I want to do:

---------------------------------
Quote of TDF2012:

So Peter Sagan’s fall in Stage 5 has really opened up the challenge for the Green Jersey. Today I couldn’t believe that Tyler Farrar had the nerve to accuse anyone else of causing todays crash as he stormed towards the Argos Team Bus when he finished the race to confront Tom Veelers. In my view it should be riders like Peter Sagan that should be approaching Tyler Farrar for his ridiculous actions leading up to the crash. He was badly cut and can be ruled out of tomorrows stage win as he has shown very little.

Another rider that I don’t think will feature is Oscar Friere. He actually went for the win in todays stage but could still only manage 7th place and he just clearly doesn’t have the legs to challenge the true out and out sprinters at this years Tour.

We no longer have to consider Marcel Kittel as he finally pulled out of the Tour De France prior to Stage 5 following the illness he has been suffering from virtually the beginning of the race. It’s a shame as the youngster is a very good sprinter and we won’t get to see what he is really made of at this years Tour.

Replacing him for Team Argos is the ever consistent Tom Veelers who has pulled off some very good results thus far. A 5th place finish today, and a 3rd place finish yesterday sees him as being the shock figure in the daily sprints. With virtually no help and the last Kilometre he can shown some respectable grit and determination to get the results he has achieved. I can’t see him getting the win though, although he would be my selection if there was a shock winner in the bunch sprint.

Mark Renshaw crashed again today and throughout the year Matt Goss has had his number in the sprints they have competed in. Heavy pressure on Renshaw though to get a win, although with Rabobank contributing nothing towards his sprinting efforts it’s no wonder he hasn’t featured heavily in the sprints, failing to get close to a Stage Win as of yet.

JJ Haedo finally did something in a sprint finish by coming 3rd, but I cannot see him troubling the likes of Cavendish, Greipel and Goss on the flat/then downhill/then flat finish tomorrow as they will be going extremely fast.

While Edvald Boasson Hagen missed his chance today in my opinion. The finish today suited him a lot more than tomorrows run in so chance gone for me before he has to work for Bradley Wiggins.

Warning:
Tomorrows run in is much more technical than the previous 2 days and look what has happened with them, seeing crashes in both. Three 90 Degree turns in the Final 3k and this is going to be manic. And it will be very hard for a single team to control the final 3k.

Obviously the best chance is Lotto from what we have seen so far. Any stake made risks the chance of watching your selected rider go tumbling down the road.

With Cadel Evans obsessed with being at the front when in my opinion he has no reason being there, all the GC teams just get in the way of Lotto, Orica-Greenedge and any sprinter looking for a Stage Win. Would love to see all the sprinters teams keeping there riders at the front at the bottom of the narrow entries to the mountains to block the way for the GC riders, it would all kick off then.

Other Sprinters:
Matt Goss blew it today, but once again I don’t think he could have done more. While I have said Goss hasn’t done enough in the sprints it is in my honest opinion that he his trying his absolute hardest and cannot offer anymore. He just hasn’t got the beating of Griepel whatsoever, and tomorrows finish suits Greipel more.

I am ruling out Peter Sagan for the Stage Win as he prefers the roads going up to the finish rather than down but I would love to see him show fight tomorrow having missed out on a lot of points at todays finish. He shows over the top respect for Cavendish in the sprints and always seems to be moving out of everyones way trying to stay in the good books. The only fight he has shown was an elbow to Matt Goss in Stage 2. No more of the sitting up tomorrow and I would love him to sprint full speed. Can’t see him having enough again though. He is a great bike handler but has lost out to Cavendish and Matt Goss on getting the position behind Greipel on all opportunities he has had.

The Contenders:
Okay for me there are only 3 contenders for the stage. At outside odds I think Petacchi is worth a mention as he has a habit of coming up with a golden stage win just when everyone has forgotten about his existence in the bunch sprints. I think tomorrows run in suits Petacchi and further to this he has a great knack of positioning himself very well. A concern he couldn’t go around Greipel in Stage 4 when coming 2nd but none the less he is showing respectable form and this possibly represents his greatest chance of a Stage Win in the Tour De France this year. That Stage Win he has come for.

Needs Lampre to get involved as they appear to be offering very little at this Tour.

Then the Big two. We have Mark Cavendish, still the fastest man on two wheels when all is okay. But he looked in pain today. Excuse given was the build up which yes Sky got horribly wrong and on the evidence of todays Stage if I was Mark Cavendish I wouldn’t want any help from the Sky train again.

But look at the problems Greipel had as well. They both had to check their sprints but Greipel found immense power while Cavendish had a face of pain.

A rider doesn’t admit if they are hurting as it shows weakness, take Cadel Evans in few years back when he keep his wrist injury a secret so other GC riders didn’t expose him.

I don’t think he is seriously injured at all, but bruises and cuts wouldn’t be a shock considering the high speed crash he had. He certainly went down a lot harder than Sagan did today. But this finish, being downhill some of the way will suit Cavendish and the Manx Missile has a habit of pulling out desperately needed wins when they matter most.

And Greipel, two stage victories already and in my opinion along with others he is much more suited by tomorrows run in. Last 3k is technical though so Lotto need to bring that break back by about 6k and then sit on the front and control the pace. They need to shoulder BMC back to where they should be and control the finish as they are the only team capable of doing this.

For me Stage 6, barring any crashes and hopefully Tyler Farrar sitting at the back of the peleton would help, is a two rider race between Greipel and Cavendish. And Petacchi would be my outside choice.

Cavendish is best priced at 6/4 with Betfred, while Greipel can be backed at 15/8 with the same bookmaker.

For me I am going for a Greipel hat-trick. While Cavendish is still the fastest man Greipel has everything in his favour. He has the backing of his Team, Lotto. The positioning is great because of his Team’s support, he is in great form and when losing to Cavendish is was only by centimetres. Cav could well do this but my money is with the Greipel. So:

Tip: Andre Greipel To Win Stage 6
Outside Pick: Alessandro Petacchi - Will Relish This Finish

Also Betfred offer a refund of your stake up to £250.00 if your selection comes 2nd which I think is a good little offer.
---------------------------------------------------

Regards

Hugh
 
TDF2012 said:
With Cadel Evans obsessed with being at the front when in my opinion he has no reason being there, all the GC teams just get in the way of Lotto, Orica-Greenedge and any sprinter looking for a Stage Win. Would love to see all the sprinters teams keeping there riders at the front at the bottom of the narrow entries to the mountains to block the way for the GC riders, it would all kick off then.

I completely disagree with this, GC Riders can gain time by staying at the front, if wasnt for the crash the other day and Wiggns hadnt ridden into the crash, he would have lost substantial time.

If you look at all of Evans Tours, he has always been at the front and sprinted to the line. He gained time in Stage One last year attacking. Im sure he was going to attack again the other day, but was slowed when he missed the turn and almost hit the roundabout.

Regards

Hugh
 
Stage 6:
img_858.jpg


Cav FTW.
 
Mar 26, 2011
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I appreciate the detailed read as well TDF2012.. not sure who this Fight The Power dingbat is, but he's been down in the brandy cellar perhaps a bit too much lately?? A bit more formatting is all I ask, wall of text melts my eyes :) I'm guessing it's a copy paste though which explains the formatting..
 
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www.cyclingquotes.com
Btw, could someone start tomorrow stage's topic?

Seeing as it is the first "real" mountain stage (sort of, at least with mountain finish) we could use a bit of time on it.
 
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Fight.The.Power said:
I appreciate that TDF but I don't think people on this forum need such a detailed explanation of your view of the current state of play and maybe not suggestions to visit particular gambling websites ?
Nonetheless you are clearly loving it so that's fine by me :) just perhaps make it a little more concise next time eh ;)

i am new on this site also.made my 1st post and got 1 sarcastic reply.however, received many more great comments.I guess there is one in every circus.Me personally i found your comment tdf2012 insightful and appreciate your efforts.keep it up bro!
 
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TDF2012 said:
You like to create grudges don't you. Forget my original post like I said and just imagine I said "the man on the yellow bike will win".

All I can say is that my original post was posted in good faith and I think your ill intended responses have been unreasonable and bang out of order. You say the whole forum is against you? Maybe you should take note. I don't know anyone on this forum at all as I am new.



Would be nice if you did the same and maybe don't try to slate newcomers on the site for absolutely no reason.

We like detailed pre-and-post stage analysis here. In fact we love it. We also love good faith efforts, especially when they turn out so well. It's this kind of thoughtful analysis that makes the racing interesting. Thanks for doing that.
 
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bucko007 said:
i am new on this site also.made my 1st post and got 1 sarcastic reply.however, received many more great comments.I guess there is one in every circus.Me personally i found your comment tdf2012 insightful and appreciate your efforts.keep it up bro!


That sarcastic remark you refer to appears to have been made by Fetisoff - how very interesting given that he just accused me of being a troll !

I'm waiting for this forum to find a length of rope and a dead tree to give me a full public lynching !

So much fun :(
 

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Fight.The.Power said:
That sarcastic remark you refer to appears to have been made by Fetisoff - how very interesting given that he just accused me of being a troll !

I'm waiting for this forum to find a length of rope and a dead tree to give me a full public lynching !

So much fun :(

We don¨t do that anymore, today we just shoot people... :p
 
WOuld liked to see this stage get an uphill finish, not a fan of downhill the speed they get up is crazy hopefully the pace before final 3km is high enough to stop any non sprinters giving it a go. That bend (sharp right) with 2km go will see some fallers hopefully nothing serious.

Sharp bends in sprint finishes can be sned as good or bad, they help take pace off a little to avoid high speed crashes in a straight but same time they result in low speed crashes.

Looks suited to Greipel today his frame suits the downhill, Cavendish will find this tougher than before. Farrar looks bolloxed now anyway expect him pull out after today.
 
Jun 8, 2011
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Crash in the neutral zone
There has been a little accident in the neutral zone involving a Lampre rider. He is back up and riding again... Richie Porte (SKY) and Jurgen van den Broeck (LTB) were also involved.



Here we go...
 
Today we have 4 in the break

- Davide Malacarne (ITA) EUC - 66th overall at 3'34"

- Romain Zingle (BEL) COF - 129th overall, at 9'57"

- Dave Zabriskie (USA) GRS - 169th overall, at 13'13"

- Karsten Kroon (NED) STB - 171st overall, at 13'43"

Lead up to 1:50 with riders in the peloton having a toilet stop (didn't they go before they started?) so it looks like they will be the break of the day.
 
Frosty said:
Today we have 4 in the break

- Davide Malacarne (ITA) EUC - 66th overall at 3'34"

- Romain Zingle (BEL) COF - 129th overall, at 9'57"

- Dave Zabriskie (USA) GRS - 169th overall, at 13'13"

- Karsten Kroon (NED) STB - 171st overall, at 13'43"

Lead up to 1:50 with riders in the peloton having a toilet stop (didn't they go before they started?) so it looks like they will be the break of the day.
I think it's a shame that we haven't had some "serious" breaks. I know that yesterdays escapees almost held off the peloton, but that must have been due to the peloton sleeping rather than the break being strong.
 
May 19, 2010
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procycling.no:

"12:43: David Zabriskie was the first one to go. Maybe he is going in a break to make the journalists ask about other things than the USADA-case. Two men has joined Dave-Z in the break.

12:45: Four men is now in the break. David Malacarne (Europcar), David Zabriskie (Garmin), Romain Zingle (Cofidis) og Karsten Kroon (Saxo Bank). They have ca. 45 seconds.

12:47: Luckily Lance Armstrong isn't in the race. He has a tendency to join the breaks where his enemies are, with the sole purpose to ruin them."

http://www.procycling.no/article3431457.ece
 
Hugo Koblet said:
I think it's a shame that we haven't had some "serious" breaks. I know that yesterdays escapees almost held off the peloton, but that must have been due to the peloton sleeping rather than the break being strong.

With three sprint stages in a row i had been wondering whether a serious break every day might put off the sprinters' teams from chasing every day, ie if Wednesday had a break full of good tters then another quality break on Thursday might persuade the sprinters to wait for Friday. Obviously all these guys would have to be down on GC though.

I think all the good breakaway guys are waiting for tomorrow and a chance to take yellow. RadioShack will expect to lose it and am not sure if any of the top GC guys will want to commit their team to do the chasing in order to pull back the break and get it. Chavanel will attempt to get into the break tomorrow, sort of like the Saturday in 2010 when they finished in the Jura. Sunday will be a good day for a break, with some of the King of the Mountains candidates perhaps looking to bag a lot of points.
 

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