2012 Tour de France: Stage 7: Tomblaine → La Planche des Belles Filles (199km)

[its like that]

1st and 3rd favourite for the Tour are 40-1 and 80-1 to win the first MTF.

Better get to it then

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Why ever not?

An even pace is much more efficient than an attack.

To make an attack work you have to be much better, or destroy the rhythm of the chasers.

I don't see anyone sufficiently seperated from the competition in this race.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Valverde's a very short price for a man who's climbing performances since his ban consist of beating Gerrans, and failing to drop Wiggins on the steep stuff.

 

[BillytheKid]

This is not going to be a climb where people have significant pace in reserve, either to attack, or to choose to not go with something.

Being part of the choo choo train will be the quickest way to the top.

I just don't see Cadel or Wiggo wanting the jersey, but someone like Sanchez might and he's within reach. Horner's just enough back on time to be the RSNT guy to follow. RSNT will want to drop the jersey as well. This going to come down to the last ITT. Cadel, I think will wait unless it's obvious that he can take serious time on Wiggins. Nibali will strike here.

 

[hfer07]

Rolland is called upon to do great - I'm also throwing Schleck to do something there too-perhaps with Horner in a breakaway. As far as team work - Id like to see what liquigas is going to do for Nibbs in the mountains with basso & szmyd against the uk postal

 

[BillytheKid]

Rolland is called upon to do great - I'm also throwing Schleck to do something there too-perhaps with Horner in a breakaway. As far as team work - Id like to see what liquigas is going to do for Nibbs in the mountains with basso & szmit against the uk postal

Frank is the one who needs the long break...possilbe if Cancellara can find a section to split the field. It would have to be sizable with Sagan and Liqui on board.

 

[maxmartin]

we should be able to see some very aggressive riding for this stage, some people lost time today have to attack , they have nothing to lose why not try something crazy

Hello Robo, Astana, Moviestar

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I just don't see Cadel or Wiggo wanting the jersey, but someone like Sanchez might and he's within reach. Horner's just enough back on time to be the RSNT guy to follow. RSNT will want to drop the jersey as well. This going to come down to the last ITT. Cadel, I think will wait unless it's obvious that he can take serious time on Wiggins. Nibali will strike here.

I don't see anyone strong enough to be able to play games choosing when they take their time.

Wiggins is not going to ride easy to avoid yellow because he'll be rightly scared of someone threatening taking time. He needs to ride a hard pace and prevent attacks. If he's that worried by yellow he can let someone go for 10 seconds on the last ramp, but it would be a pretty pointless gesture with the TT on Monday, where he certainly won't be holding back.

Evans is not in a position to give up changes to take time - he's tried a few times and the cards havent fallen yet - he is not going to pass this up, and Wiggins is not just going to blithely watch whilst he tries.

 

[Bala Verde]

From the little preview I saw:

relatively short climb, gradients are irregular but generally really steep, there are short sections that flatten a little; right before the finish almost 20% ramp.

This looks ideal for someone like Pozzovivo; i.e. a lightweight small climber who can dance on the pedals.

Attacks seem unnecessary. The steepness of the climb probably causes the selection. If they are aggressive from the start of the climb, I predict we'll see small groups of 2-3 riders and riders solo. Otherwise it might be a grind with the group of GC guys.

Time differences can't get too big 30s between major contenders?

 

[maxmartin]

From the little preview I saw:

relatively short climb, gradients are irregular but generally really steep, there are short sections that flatten a little; right before the finish almost 20% ramp.

This looks ideal for someone like Pozzovivo.

Attacks seem unnecessary. The steepness of the climb probably causes the selection. If they are aggressive from the start of the climb, I predict we'll see small groups of 2-3 riders and riders solo.

Time differences can't get too big 30s between major contenders?

30s is a huge gap for this stage, if Geisink, Vervlder, Brajovic... can get 30s back, their GC dream will be live again

 

[Arnout]

From the little preview I saw:

relatively short climb, gradients are irregular but generally really steep, there are short sections that flatten a little; right before the finish almost 20% ramp.

This looks ideal for someone like Pozzovivo; i.e. a lightweight small climber who can dance on the pedals.

Attacks seem unnecessary. The steepness of the climb probably causes the selection. If they are aggressive from the start of the climb, I predict we'll see small groups of 2-3 riders and riders solo.

Time differences can't get too big 30s between major contenders?

Will be interesting to see who aren't strong. I don't think there will be big differences at the front, maybe a few seconds in the last kilometer.

But I do think we will see some riders losing contender status. Will be interesting to see which.

 

[Bala Verde]

30s is a huge gap for this stage, if Geisink, Vervlder, Brajovic... can get 30s back, their GC dream will be live again

Sorry. Perhaps I was not entirely clear. When I said 30s I implied that all major contenders should be trickling in within a 30s time frame; not each and every one will be separated 30s.

 

[maxmartin]

Sorry. Perhaps I was not entirely clear. When I said 30s I implied that all major contenders should be trickling in within a 30s time frame; not each and every one will be separated 30s.

sure but if Valverde, Gesink can gap Wiggins, Evans 30s, their GC ambition will be live again. Those GC contenders who crashed today have nothing to lose on any mountain stages they have to try something crazy to salvage their GC hope. I am looking forward to seeing some fireworks in the future stages including tomorrow.

 

[Dr.Sahl]

I hope VDB and Nibali shows some good form... I also hope that we will see some crazy breakaways...

But it seems like the only thing thats certain, is the same thing I have perdicted all week long..

We will see crashes.

 

[profff]

most of the gc contender who were involved in the fall today tomorrow will be in bad condition, they have no time to recover.
so , gesink, rolland and the others with the worst consequences will probably lose more time tomorrow instead of attacking.

it looks like brajkovic, scarponi and mollema are in good condition , valverde i do not know, gesink and rolland in bad conditions and probably they will just try to limit the gap.
the info are too uncertain to guess who will be able to fight without too much handicaps

 

[The Barb]

Think there's a very good chance the breakaway wins this.

Dan Martin for me.

Pretty much the only uninjured Garmin rider ... has said he's targetting KOTM ... is 18:48 back in the GC so no problem with giving him free rein.

 

[the vagabond]

Will Sagan ride for Nibali and Basso or will he be allowed to try to limit his own losses, to stay at least in shouting distance of yellow (not to mention white)through the time trial? Could he conceivably stay close to TJVG on the final climb if there is a large enough group?

 

[Bala Verde]

From the video posted by the OP, the course ridden by Daniel Lloyd, this profile came up.

He compared it to the Mont Faron used in the Tour Méditerranéen. Short and steep. Although that mountain seems to be much more exposed to the wind and the road surface is in much poorer condition.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgcwBoDuCgU

skip to 1:08.

Moncoutie won on that mountain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lfnhdIc0Rk&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFysAJ0TOlA&feature=related

 

[maxmartin]

most of the gc contender who were involved in the fall today tomorrow will be in bad condition, they have no time to recover.
so , gesink, rolland and the others with the worst consequences will probably lose more time tomorrow instead of attacking.

it looks like brajkovic, scarponi and mollema are in good condition , valverde i do not know, gesink and rolland in bad conditions and probably they will just try to limit the gap.
the info are too uncertain to guess who will be able to fight without too much handicaps

Gesink said he was not hurt, hope that is true

 

[Chap01]

Top 8 for tomorrow?

My Guess:

1.Schleck
2.Evans
3.Wiggings
4.Sanchez
5.Horner
6.Nibali
7.Velits
8.Menchov

Help!!! am I too lost?

 

[Bala Verde]

Here's the whole climb in 10 minutes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQqIUa1R2ko

[edit: it looks easier than the official profile suggests, irregular it is; some short down hill/flat sections; especially the last ramp up to the finish is a place where you could take some seconds, a la fleche wallone]

 

[maxmartin]

Top 8 for tomorrow?

My Guess:

1.Schleck
2.Evans
3.Wiggings
4.Sanchez
5.Horner
6.Nibali
7.Velits
8.Menchov

Help!!! am I too lost?

horner ahead of Nibali
No F*** Hell way

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

30s is a huge gap for this stage, if Geisink, Vervlder, Brajovic... can get 30s back, their GC dream will be live again

I have no idea who that is supposed to be... Devolder isn't riding, so... Valverde?

 

[Netserk]

The Pope to finish ahead of Evans

 

[markov111]

Sanchez
Schleck
Gesink
Evans
Nibali
Van Den Broeck
Menchov
Velits
Brajkovic
Wiggins


My rough top 10.....what you think?