BillytheKid said:
The run-up climb to Big Bear is different than the series of mohills in 2010. I had not really looked at it closely before, but tell me if I am wrong. Marking from 28-29 Ks in your looking 15 to 16 Ks at 9.3-9.5 % to the top of Angles Crest. That will be a good test for your climbing theory.
Good news for Nibali if the GC climbers decided to attack Sagan there. Nibali sits on, Sagan cases. Either way though to beat on the day.
Not sure where you get your numbers from but from the Strava map.
From 40.37km until 50.08km, roughly constant from 934 to 1137. about 2%
then a decent, I think we can disregard this
from 52.08 to 57.24, constant from 1083 to 1233, roughly 4%
no decent
then 57.24 to 62.95 constant from 1233 to 1585, about 7%
total 10.87km at 4.6%
small flat 500m or so
then 63.56 to 69.95 from 1585 to 1884 about 5%
then a decent and the top is 2.9km at 7%.
My thoughts, if it were the final climb of the day it would be telling, but as it is fairly shallow, and a long way from the finish, we can reasonably expect a tempo ride, hopefully a duarte break and nothing telling about Sagan's climbing.
We know from experience the final climb is nothing for Sagan.