2013 Giro D'Italia Field Discussion

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Who will win the 2013 Giro?

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Apr 10, 2011
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Poursuivant said:
All the talk about Wiggins winning the Tour because of his TT ability, yet Nibali took zero time on him in the mountains. If Wiggins is in similar shape it will be tough for Nibali, although I think it will be a lot closer. Should be interesting.
Differences :

- No Froome to close the gap when Nibs attacks and Wiggins's is all by himself when all teammates disperse. That of course depends how strong Henao will be ( should be his last helper ).

- Usually more steep mountains / hills not suited to Wiggo. He can do a lot to improve that trough riding lots of camps in Italy and races like Trentino or Tirreno though, or at least see how he fares and try to improve.

So yeah, it should be quite excting imo.

Not to forget, Samu, Hesjedal, Basso or Scarponi etc. won't make it easy for those 2 ;)
 
Gloin22 said:
Differences :

- No Froome to close the gap when Nibs attacks and Wiggins's is all by himself when all teammates disperse. That of course depends how strong Henao will be ( should be his last helper ).

- Usually more steep mountains / hills not suited to Wiggo. He can do a lot to improve that trough riding lots of camps in Italy and races like Trentino or Tirreno though, or at least see how he fares and try to improve.

So yeah, it should be quite excting imo.

Not to forget, Samu, Hesjedal, Basso or Scarponi etc. won't make it easy for those 2 ;)
this, people really underestimate how much different it makes to have another rider (and a particularly tall one in froome's case) pacing you back to another rider on the shallow climbs used in the tour. la toussuire being the most obvious case as the % rarely goes over 6% and froome closed most of the gap to the nibali group on the flat/downhill section in the middle of the climb. he only closed about 10 seconds on the 7% part and that put wiggins really on the ropes for a little bit (a very little bit ofc)

also let's not forget that while froome appeared to be cracking wiggins was losing time to the nibali group and if not for froome's nitro boost he would have most likely lost a significant amount of time all the way to the top as he would be solo against a group of 4 decent climbers working together for about 7 kilometers on a very shallow climb.

i am not saying nibali has the advantage for the giro but the fight will certainly be much closer then at the tour as wiggins most likely won't have the best climber in the race working for him and the field appears to be very strong.

just imagine a similar situation with wiggins solo against nibali, hesjedal and sanchez 20 seconds up the road and 7 kilometers of climb left. who do you reckon would win? wiggins or the group?
 
Jan 11, 2010
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Parrulo said:
this, people really underestimate how much different it makes to have another rider (and a particularly tall one in froome's case) pacing you back to another rider on the shallow climbs used in the tour. la toussuire being the most obvious case as the % rarely goes over 6% and froome closed most of the gap to the nibali group on the flat/downhill section in the middle of the climb. he only closed about 10 seconds on the 7% part and that put wiggins really on the ropes for a little bit (a very little bit ofc)

also let's not forget that while froome appeared to be cracking wiggins was losing time to the nibali group and if not for froome's nitro boost he would have most likely lost a significant amount of time all the way to the top as he would be solo against a group of 4 decent climbers working together for about 7 kilometers on a very shallow climb.

i am not saying nibali has the advantage for the giro but the fight will certainly be much closer then at the tour as wiggins most likely won't have the best climber in the race working for him and the field appears to be very strong.

just imagine a similar situation with wiggins solo against nibali, hesjedal and sanchez 20 seconds up the road and 7 kilometers of climb left. who do you reckon would win? wiggins or the group?
Like Wiggo said in the Vuelta, if I just ride on the front at 7 w/kg no one will be able to ride away for very long, or whatever it was (a little less probably). It's only on a climb like Zoncolan that this logic doesn't really apply, it's too steep for Wiggo and his very non-climberly climbing style.
 
Parrulo said:
this, people really underestimate how much different it makes to have another rider (and a particularly tall one in froome's case) pacing you back to another rider on the shallow climbs used in the tour. la toussuire being the most obvious case as the % rarely goes over 6% and froome closed most of the gap to the nibali group on the flat/downhill section in the middle of the climb. he only closed about 10 seconds on the 7% part and that put wiggins really on the ropes for a little bit (a very little bit ofc)

also let's not forget that while froome appeared to be cracking wiggins was losing time to the nibali group and if not for froome's nitro boost he would have most likely lost a significant amount of time all the way to the top as he would be solo against a group of 4 decent climbers working together for about 7 kilometers on a very shallow climb.

i am not saying nibali has the advantage for the giro but the fight will certainly be much closer then at the tour as wiggins most likely won't have the best climber in the race working for him and the field appears to be very strong.

just imagine a similar situation with wiggins solo against nibali, hesjedal and sanchez 20 seconds up the road and 7 kilometers of climb left. who do you reckon would win? wiggins or the group?


Its very unlikely that Hejsedal Sanchez and Nibali to all just drop wiggins and fly away into gc podium. Also unlikely that Wiggins would to be left with no helpers if they did.

And if they did I dont see why Nibali would neccesarily win.

Its actually far more likely that the others will be flying away from Nibali and not from Wiggins since Nibali is the gc rider with the most storied history of cracking on mountain stages.
 
Dec 27, 2010
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If Henao is in shape he will be a very valuable helper for Wiggins on the final climbs. A couple of the big mountain days last year he blew his doors off reacting to the first accelerations and then ended up coming a couple of groups behind. He was less impressive for Froome in the Vuelta but I think Henao wasn't quite in his Giro shape there.

Really looking forward to this Giro, right mix of contenders and parcours to hopefully result in a cracking race.
 
Oct 23, 2011
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will10 said:
If Henao is in shape he will be a very valuable helper for Wiggins on the final climbs. A couple of the big mountain days last year he blew his doors off reacting to the first accelerations and then ended up coming a couple of groups behind. He was less impressive for Froome in the Vuelta but I think Henao wasn't quite in his Giro shape there.

Really looking forward to this Giro, right mix of contenders and parcours to hopefully result in a cracking race.
If Henao is in shape Wiggo needs to be careful not to get Froomed by Henao. :p
 
The Hitch said:
Its very unlikely that Hejsedal Sanchez and Nibali to all just drop wiggins and fly away into gc podium. Also unlikely that Wiggins would to be left with no helpers if they did.

And if they did I dont see why Nibali would neccesarily win.

Its actually far more likely that the others will be flying away from Nibali and not from Wiggins since Nibali is the gc rider with the most storied history of cracking on mountain stages.
Yes I don't know why so many people are overrating Nibali that much since his luckily Vuelta win in 2010. Sure he's a very good rider, but no great one at all.

The real big prospects of Italian cycling have been Ricco and Cunego, not Nibali. They're both not able to perform - on that level - anymore due to different reasons (Or maybe just because of the same one). But that Nibali is now the only left big hope as italian grand tour contender says enough about the decreased level of italian cycling.

But maybe anything would now suddenly change since he's as Astana :rolleyes:
 
Maaaaaaaarten said:
If Henao is in shape Wiggo needs to be careful not to get Froomed by Henao. :p
He needs to be careful not to have the best rider in the race slave for him?. Because after the way i saw froome ride his guts out for wiggins while wearing the leaders jersey in the vuelta and then at the tour, the term "froomed"can't possibly mean anything else.
 
staubsauger said:
Yes I don't know why so many people are overrating Nibali that much since his luckily Vuelta win in 2004. Sure he's a very good rider, but no great one at all.
People overrate Nibali? Never been the favourite in any race he's ever been. He's one of the few guys in the pro peloton who can/want to fight for the win in a huge range of races and this makes people like him.

And btw 2004 :confused:
 
The Hitch said:
Its very unlikely that Hejsedal Sanchez and Nibali to all just drop wiggins and fly away into gc podium. Also unlikely that Wiggins would to be left with no helpers if they did.

And if they did I dont see why Nibali would neccesarily win.

Its actually far more likely that the others will be flying away from Nibali and not from Wiggins since Nibali is the gc rider with the most storied history of cracking on mountain stages.
One thing is to have won a Tour that "favored" all Wiggins strengths- There is a big difference to ride a "mountainous GT" where he will be forced to make the most time in the ITTs and literally going on defend mode afterwards-& BTW if Nibali always has that one day when he falters- I do remember clearly Wiggo being dropped in the Angliru- & those are the kind of mountains he'll ride in May-not the Tour's where he could be "TT towed" all the way up......
 
Mar 31, 2010
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Poursuivant said:
All the talk about Wiggins winning the Tour because of his TT ability, yet Nibali took zero time on him in the mountains. If Wiggins is in similar shape it will be tough for Nibali, although I think it will be a lot closer. Should be interesting.
what mountains?
 
Eshnar said:
People overrate Nibali? Never been the favourite in any race he's ever been. He's one of the few guys in the pro peloton who can/want to fight for the win in a huge range of races and this makes people like him.

And btw 2004 :confused:
People on this board overrate him definately. There are people here who think he should go to the Tour de France because barring injuries he will win it.

His tt in particular is very overrated. Perhaps a bit less recently (since the Tour maybe) but until last summer Nibali was constantly being hyped as some sort of Evans or Contador type gt contender who can rely on the tts to eliminate all rivals.

This seems to have stemmed from his good tting at an early age as this post from last year demonstrates -
roundabout said:
I am guessing that it's still 2006 and some people think that Nibali can TT very well.
But not just on here. There was a 2012 TDF preview from some newspaper linked here where the "experts" rated all 2012 TDF contenders by their qualities and gave Nibali the same tt rating as Evans, for example and higher than Sanchez.

His very admirable riding style and fighting spirit is totally seperate from the concept of being overrated - that people think you are far better than you actually are.
 
hfer07 said:
I do remember clearly Wiggo being dropped in the Angliru
Yeah but so was Nibali. Wiggins beat Nibali on Angliru - and neither was on top form there (wiggins was coming back from injury and was a minute back on Froome and martin in the tt whereas this year he made both of them look like weak tters )

One thing is to have won a Tour that "favored" all Wiggins strengths- There is a big difference to ride a "mountainous GT" where he will be forced to make the most time in the ITTs and literally going on defend mode afterwards
And the mountain stages of the Tour show that defending tt leads against Nibali will be an absolute walk in the park for Wiggins.

On Peyresoudes Froome and Wiggins flew away from all the gc contenders -and apparently were just as quick as Rasmussen Contador 2007. I hear all this moaning about how Wiggins had Froome but there was nothing stopping Nibali from staying in Wiggins slipstream when they attacked.


And PDBF. Straight hilltop shootout.

If Nibali had really been a superior climber to Wiggins he would have at the very least outsprinted Wiggins on PDBF- which is essentially a test of who suffered most on the mountain.

Instead Nibali crawled over the line 5 seconds behind. Is that really the sign of a rider who will be putting minutes into Wiggins in the Dolomites?

Nibalis only hope is that Wiggins doesnt care for the Giro as much as he does for the Tour.
 
The Hitch said:
And the mountain stages of the Tour show that defending tt leads against Nibali will be an absolute walk in the park for Wiggins.

If Nibali had really been a superior climber to Wiggins he would have at the very least outsprinted Wiggins on PDBF- which is essentially a test of who suffered most on the mountain.

Instead Nibali crawled over the line 5 seconds behind. Is that really the sign of a rider who will be putting minutes into Wiggins in the Dolomites?
Never said minutes -but in a way that's the problem: You know better the Giro Mountains aren't the Tour Mountains!! that's the biggest mistake Wiggins & Sky will make in trying to "replicate" a Tour formula in Italy & underestimate the competition there. Nibali does ride well in Italy.

The Hitch said:
Nibalis only hope is that Wiggins doesnt care for the Giro as much as he does for the Tour.
The entire world knows Wiggins stands NO chance against Contador, Schleck & Froome-so he better care about Il Giro & Nibali ;)
 

serfla

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Nov 12, 2012
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I have impression that people here are expecting a bit too much from Nibali and the Giro's mountains in general.
While the race itself can (and hopefully will) be exciting, monstrous, epic, devastating attacks aren't so certain, if we can pull some conclusions from last couple of GTs... Racing trend is very conservative.
And Nibali himself isn't exactly the type of aggressive rider who continually attacks and makes huge gains on ascents. Consistency is the key of his success. Having said that, and keeping in mind their recent duels, Nibali's chance is Wiggins' form.
If it's true that Wiggo will target the double, then I see a possible problem for him and the chance for Nibali.
Wiggins will have to peak twice in, roughly, two months span. He'll, also, have to be on, at least, 90% (and that's very optimistic for the Tour demands) of his top form for 4 weeks in 10 weeks span (taken in account dates of stages which should have effect on both GCs). I'm not an expert in sport physiology, but this sounds very difficult, even though he managed to keep high level of form throughout entire 2012 spring (but racing week long races).
Off course, the premise is that Wiggo will ride both races like the champion should ride - to win.
 
The Hitch said:
People on this board overrate him definately. There are people here who think he should go to the Tour de France because barring injuries he will win it.

His tt in particular is very overrated. Perhaps a bit less recently (since the Tour maybe) but until last summer Nibali was constantly being hyped as some sort of Evans or Contador type gt contender who can rely on the tts to eliminate all rivals.

This seems to have stemmed from his good tting at an early age as this post from last year demonstrates -

But not just on here. There was a 2012 TDF preview from some newspaper linked here where the "experts" rated all 2012 TDF contenders by their qualities and gave Nibali the same tt rating as Evans, for example and higher than Sanchez.

His very admirable riding style and fighting spirit is totally seperate from the concept of being overrated - that people think you are far better than you actually are.
Yes Nibali is a solid rider but does not have an edge over the best riders in either the TT or the climbs and does not have an uphill kick at the end of stage like Rodriguez or Evans. So it it hard to see him winning grand tours at the moment. That said, the Giro could still be a good contest especially if Wiggins is not in his best form. Nibali might have to try something more daring to shake off Wiggins and co.
 
hfer07 said:
The entire world knows Wiggins stands NO chance against Contador, Schleck & Froome-so he better care about Il Giro & Nibali ;)
I mean as much as he cared for the tour last year.

This year he knows he won't beat contador and schleck.


Never said minutes -but in a way that's the problem: You know better the Giro Mountains aren't the Tour Mountains!! that's the biggest mistake Wiggins & Sky will make in trying to "replicate" a Tour formula in Italy & underestimate the competition there. Nibali does ride well in Italy.
The mountains in the giro aren't as hard this year. Still harder than the tour of course and far from easy but medium level compared.to.what they could do.They are even including some tour mountains - galibier.

And pdbf where.wiggins beat nibali is actually a pretty explosive.little climb, basically like half of gavia which will be 1 of the mtfs.

But regardless, i don't think nibali has shown he does any better in Italy. Last time round he was worse than scarponi and the same level as gadret and beaten by anton and rujano on half the mountain stages and on a few occasions by kreuziger.

Is that really the type of.climber who will be taking minutes on wiggins ?
 
Ferminal said:
Just like Andy works on his position every winter :eek:
Whenever Andy lines up for a TT, he looks like he doesn't want to be there. His last two final TTs in the Tour were pretty good by his standards but apart from 2010, his standard is a long way from Contador and co. Not sure whether he will ever improve it by much. You would think he would be able to show some improvement at least in the shorter ones. Rodriguez and Sastre showed improvement when the leader's jersey was on the line. His great win on Galibier in 2011 would not have helped him in the TT as he looked flat on the Alpe and the TT. Least he tried something but paid for it in the days after.
 
Dec 28, 2012
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staubsauger said:
For what? No way he'll be able to fight for the maglia azzuro with guys like Garzelli, Rabottini, Chaves/Atapuma/Duarte around.

And a stage win? Well yeah maybe if he's lucky ...
For What??? ermm to do his job that he gets paid for? What should he do, refuse to ride just because you think he wont be ablt to fight for the maglia azzuro?
Hoogerland was 5th in last years Tirreno Addriatico and a capable climber being a number of days in the mountains jersey in the Tour the France in 2011.
 
Last year though Nibali raced a very full schedule, Oman, T-A, Classics (where he had great form) and then the TDF. This year if he did not race the Classics as much he might have better form for his GT the Giro.

That all said Wiggins rode a lot of races to before the TDF but Nibali made more of an effort in each- Wiggins in all but P-N had no real competition.

The reason why i think Nibali or someone else (mainly Gesink) could win is the days Wiggins has a bad day, they will not.
 
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