2013 Road World Championships: Men's Road Race, Lucca-Firenze 272.2 km

[Roderick]

I know your joking, but seriously, this will actually be quite hard for Cancellara.

There are examples of where he won such races but there are also plenty where he has lost them and usually he isn't up against Valverde, Murito, Nibali etc.

If there were cobbles here, of course, but he's a bit out of his zone here in the climbers course to start with.

People say all he needs is a gap and then hell beat them and that the 10% climb offers that. Well dropping Murito for example on 10% is hardly going to be a walk in the park for Cancellara.

With no team either he could be royally screwed at the end vs Spain with say 4 riders maybe.

Gilbert is being too easily forgotten too. He will be there at the end no question.

Contador, if last year is any guide he will be Spains attack guy with 3 laps to go. A lot less flat though this time. Depending who is out front and how the other riders react, that could be the moment the race explodes.

Actually I wasn't joking at all. Ofcourse I exaggerated it a bit, but for me he is by far the biggest favourite. The false flat after the via Salviati fits him like a glove. There are only two guys who can follow him on such a road: Sagan and Gilbert '11. I think Gilbert is quite close at his WC-form of last year but I don't think it will be enough and Sagan is gonna crack at the very end like he did in the RvV.

Last year Gilbert was an easy pick after his two victories in Spain and the course that fitted him like a glove, but now I don't think there won't be anybody able to drop Cance.

Ofcourse I could be completely wrong, and the Via Salviati proves to be a tat too hard for Cance and Murito takes it, but I don't see it happening

 

[orangerider]

Stybar takes it. Far less marked than Fabian on an already unsuited course for him. Sagan is the leading favorite but his typical late season form is questionable.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Stybar a good guess...seems like it may be a surprise move that sneaks out front for the win in the final k's...

 

[royalpig180]

Does anyone know what the approximate finish time is?

 

[jflemaire]

Does anyone know what the approximate finish time is?

Finish at around 5:05pm CET (11:05am U.S. Eastern)

 

[greenedge]

These are my ratings (basically everyone )- with no 1 star.
Sagan, Valverde, Cancellara, Nibali

JROD, Moreno, Quintana, Uran, Gesink, Mollema, Talansky (he has a good sprint/ i cannot imagine TJVG being a great leader), Stybar, Kwiatowski, Martin, Costa, Gilbert

Visconti, Pozzato, Ulissi, Henao, Betancur, Barguil, Voeckler, Evans, Porte, Huzasrski, Degenkolb, Kolobnev, Fuglsang, Inglinsky, EBH, Samu, GVA, Bakelants, Vichot

Froome, Horner, Scarponi, Slagter, Weening, Nordhaug, Bardet, Clarke, Majka, Roche, Albasini, Zaugg, Bozic, Zoidl, Kessiakoff, Hushovd, Durasek, Impey, Kangert, Bennet, Amador, Navardauskas, Jungels, Contador, Rubiano, Acevedo, Hoogerland, Niemiec, Geschke, Bennett, Grivko, Frank

 

[greenedge]

The French U23 men did a good job making the race exciting. Is Chavanel racing? He'd be my pick. Voeckler...yeah, I still don't get why people are throwing Tommy's name around. Maybe 2011 Tommy, but not 2013 lil Tommy. Chavanel I like based on this year. He throws his hand in, then yeah. Pinot? Maybe...I haven't checked the French team roster. I honestly just planned on watching and seeing who is on the road apart from the favourites.

Voeckler has ridden well in races like AGR- Pinot i think will be screwed by the descending.

 

[michaeldaddow]

This is what 5 laps of the course looks like on strava, uploaded by some junior after the junior RR. http://www.strava.com/activities/85465097#

Therefore my favourites are:
***** Canc, Gilbert, Kolobnev, Albasini, EBH.
**** Sagan, Evans, Valverde, Nibs, Gesink.
*** GVA, Moreno, Betancur, Samu, Horner.

Obviously I think a faster guy will win it or a small/lone breakaway as seen in the road races so far.

 

[ILovecycling]

Hopefuly there will be a lot of action in last 3 rounds,my top favourite is Nibali but Vamos Colombia!

Btw.still wonder in what kind of form Betancur is

 

[Bakhjulet]

Very curious about Kwiatkovski today. Course should suit him quiet well. He is a good climber, good descender, strong on the flat and has a decent sprint. He also seems to handle long distances ok, 4th in AGR and quiet strong in RVV this year.

Only thing that worries me is his build up for the Worlds. He did not finish in GP Quebec and crashed in GP Montreal.

 

[Galic Ho]

Voeckler has ridden well in races like AGR- Pinot i think will be screwed by the descending.

Good point. His descending in the Vuelta was better however the winner needs to be able to descend like a monster.

That rules out most guys. Not sure how Valverde will take to the rain.

This is going to be AWESOME!!!

 

[Bakhjulet]

Damn, it's pouring down.

 

[tomorrow]

Damn, it's pouring down.

ok, so sagan, cancellara and nibali on their own 3 laps to finish then?

 

[SafeBet]

Damn, it's pouring down.

via @cyclingpro

 

[SafeBet]

Race just started.

 

[forkboy84]

Yeah, looks pretty unpleasant in Italy right now.

I'm impressed that the BBC have the whole thing live, albeit on their website.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

Team GB hit the front.

 

[Netserk]

Huzarski already up the road. I thought he'd be one of the stronger Poles today

Edit: he's with TUN 197 CHTIOUI Rafaa

and CZE 83 BARTA Jan

 

[EnacheV]

can someone link the youtube stream thanks, i can't find it

found it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9_YbtPUgXY

 

[SafeBet]

The youngest rider in the race is in the break now: Yonder Godoy from Venezuela.

 

[Netserk]

Yonder Godoy (155) VEN
Jan Barta (83) CZE
Rafaa Chitioui (197) TUN
Bartosz Huzarski (100) POL
Matthias Brandle (129) AUT

In the break

 

[Netserk]

Cav leading the bunch.

Decent BotD IMO

 

[SafeBet]

Martinello saying it hasn't been raining for more than on hour in Firenze now.

 

[spalco]

Love seeing Cavendish do the work in the wind, too bad he didn't make it into the break.

 

[Netserk]

Yonder Godoy (155) VEN
Jan Barta (83) CZE
Rafaa Chitioui (197) TUN
Bartosz Huzarski (100) POL
Matthias Brandle (129) AUT

3'20

Cav leading the bunch.