2013 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

[Maaaaaaaarten]

TT is a bit too short to balance Alto de Mahlaho MTF. 5km more would ahve bee appropriate.
Anyway, should offer Tony a decent shot at top 3 GC finish.

Yeah now Westra will win the Malhão stage and do a good TT and win Algarve.
It's last years PN all over again, only with Martin instead of Wiggins and Westra will win this time, because the TT is five km too short.

 

[Bavarianrider]

By the way, are theres till no news on Paris-Nice

 

[the asian]

By the way, are theres till no news on Paris-Nice

Nobody is bothered about it as it's become a joke of a race

 

[Pentacycle]

Nobody is bothered about it as it's become a joke of a race

A joke of a race? At least it had some suspense last year. Whereas TA was decided by a MTF long before the final TT, PN still had two or three possible winners on the last day.

 

[the asian]

A joke of a race? At least it had some suspense last year. Whereas TA was decided by a MTF long before the final TT, PN still had two or three possible winners on the last day.

Most of the top riders aren't riding it this year either. So i guess they too agree with me.

 

[Gloin22]

Most of the top riders aren't riding it this year either. So i guess they too agree with me.

Which should make the race more interesting ? ...

Most of the time no top favourite makes it much better to watch than a race laid with starts looking over their shoulders.

 

[the asian]

Which should make the race more interesting ? ...

Most of the time no top favourite makes it much better to watch than a race laid with starts looking over their shoulders.

Might make the result tighter, but not sure we'll get interesting racing.

 

[Red Rick]

TT is a bit too short to balance Alto de Mahlaho MTF. 5km more would ahve bee appropriate.
Anyway, should offer Tony a decent shot at top 3 GC finish.

Bavarianrider strikes again. It may be balanced if you cut the length down to 1/3 of it's original

 

[Eshnar]

Whereas TA was decided by a MTF long before the final TT,

that's some nice trolling

 

[The Hitch]

The funny thing is that bv calls that climb hard. Remember his great argument was that gradient don't matter. 2% is as hard as 25%

So.is a 3k climb really hard? its barely any more difficult than box hill.

 

[Der Effe]

Does anyone know what Rabo/Blanco's Flemish classic specialists (Boom, Vanmarcke, Wynants) racing schedule will be? Can't seem to find any info...

 

[Bavarianrider]

The funny thing is that bv calls that climb hard. Remember his great argument was that gradient don't matter. 2% is as hard as 25%

So.is a 3k climb really hard? its barely any more difficult than box hill.

No that is not what i said
Of course it depends of the lenght of the effort.
3km @ 5% are easier cause you are riding shorter then on 9% gradient of 3km.
Going all out for 10 minutes on a 5% climb is just as hard as 10minutes all out ona a 9% gradient, no difference there.

However, the steeper climbs are, the more difficult it gets for riders to reach their normal watt/kilo ratio. The heavier a rider is, the more heavier it gets to reach the flat line watt/Kilo ratio. Hence lighter riders have an increasing advantage the longer and steeper a climb is.
This does not mean that the climb gets harder, though. You still push at 100% but your power output production is going down. Hence you go slower, but it doesn'T feel harder then psuhing 100% in the flat.
You can't push more then 100%. Neither at 0% or ad 100% gradient.

 

[burning]

So, Sestriere is harder than Zoncolan by your logic?

 

[Eshnar]

No that is not what i said
Of course it depends of the lenght of the effort.
3km @ 5% are easier cause you are riding shorter then on 9% gradient of 3km.
Going all out for 10 minutes on a 5% climb is just as hard as 10minutes all out ona a 9% gradient, no difference there.

However, the steeper climbs are, the more difficult it gets for riders to reach their normal watt/kilo ratio. The heavier a rider is, the more heavier it gets to reach the flat line watt/Kilo ratio. Hence lighter riders have an increasing advantage the longer and steeper a climb is.
This does not mean that the climb gets harder, though. You still push at 100% but your power output production is going down. Hence you go slower, but it doesn'T feel harder then psuhing 100% in the flat.
You can't push more then 100%. Neither at 0% or ad 100% gradient.

maybe you should mention that this reasoning is valid only in a ITT. when you're alone.

 

[Bavarianrider]

So, Sestriere is harder than Zoncolan by your logic?

I doubt Sestriere takes longer as Zoncolan.

However, in General you a right.
50 minutes on 6% gradient are harder then 40 minutes on a 12% gradient.

 

[Bavarianrider]

maybe you should mention that this reasoning is valid only in a ITT. when you're alone.

Not only in TTes, though. When you are alone, no drafting and so on, it's true for mass start races, too.

 

[Eshnar]

Not only in TTes, though. When you are alone, no drafting and so on, it's true for mass start races, too.

yes. Even though in mass start races is very unlikely to climb a whole mountain all alone today
In any case, it's a strict condition and someone had to mention it

 

[burning]

I doubt Sestriere takes longer as Zoncolan.

However, in General you a right.
50 minutes on 6% gradient are harder then 40 minutes on a 12% gradient.

38 km at %4 must be longer than around 50 minutes, but I'd take Sestriere at any day over Zoncolan

 

[Bavarianrider]

38 km at %4 must be longer than around 50 minutes, but I'd take Sestriere at any day over Zoncolan

Didn't realise it was 34km.

If so, it indeed is a harder climed compared to Zoncolan.

 

[Red Rick]

It's not the time it takes that defines the difficulty, it's the effort it takes to at least make it to the top. Any dude with 2 legs can get his @ss up to sestriere but if you're sending random people up to Zoncolan, 99% will not make it through the first steep km.

 

[Ferminal]

Nah, Tony's brother is correct in that a gradual climb takes longer than a steeper climb of equal vertical gain (or uses more energy). But he fails to detail the fact that it is far easier to stick with a group on easier gradients due to the drafting bonuses. This is the whole reason why 5% gradients at the end of an easy stage are pointless. It's far more difficult for a climbing order to be established. The finishing order on a climb like Zoncolan is pretty much determined by W/kg. In this sense the Giro MTT is very good and a tougher exercise than had they just done 10km @ 10%.

Anyway, what time is the T-A announcement?

 

[Eshnar]

Anyway, what time is the T-A announcement?

no idea...

 

[Ferminal]

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/2011/it/dettaglio_percorso.shtml

Can't say I'm impressed, the change to the Chieti run in means 15km along the highway before the finish. Looks like a tough one for the attackers. The bonus ASO loop at the end of Stage 6 makes me sad too.

 

[Afrank]

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/2011/it/dettaglio_percorso.shtml

From Ferminal's link

Wed 06/03/2013 16.9 km St. Vincent - Donoratico (Team time trial)
Thurs 07/03/2013 230 km San Vincenzo - Indicator (Arezzo)
Fri 08/03/2013 198 km Indicator (Arezzo) - Narni Scalo
Sat 03/09/2013 165 km Narni - Prati di Tivo
Sun 3/10/2013 224 km Ortona - Chieti
Mon 3/11/2013 208 km Porto Sant 'Elpidio - Porto Sant' Elpidio
Tues 03/12/2013 9.3 km San Benedetto del Tronto (Individual Time Trial)

 

[Parrulo]

well it could be worse to be honest

we get prati di tivo instead of rocca di cambio so that's good.

and chieti comes after prato di tivo which could be good as some may need to try and gain time back and attack from further away, also isn't the profile from chieti the same as what was supposed to be done last year?