2013 Tour de France, Stage 2: Bastia - Ajaccio 156Km

[Pentacycle]

Kristoff will challenge Cav, Greipel 3rd.

 

[Roderick]

No idea why the last climb is 3rd category and not 4rd. In the Giro this climb woudn't even be categorized

 

[The Hitch]

If Kittel gets dropped how will the graphics work? As they usually show just a difference from front of the race to yellow jersey.

This of course, assuming the situation is

Breakaway
Peloton
Dropped riders incl. Kittel

See breakaway peloton cancellara situation every year. graphic will show gap to mj, but they will show other gaps at bottom of screen more frequently.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

I hate to say it, but while the roads across Corsica are great for a stage, the roads around Ajaccio are TERRIBLE for a stage finish. That being said, based on where they put the stage finish, they probably should have used the Chemin de Saint Antoine rather than the Boulevard Tino Rossi/Route des Sanguimaires for the stage finish.

One note...they have to put the finish seaside somewhere, because that's where the press headquarters are (on a boat). Bad as Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen can be (yes, I'd greatly prefer Matthew Keenan), they'd be even worse (and probably plenty angry about things) if they were forced to commentate from 50-60 km from the finish line! Putting the finish line on the Col de Vizzavona simply is not an option.

 

[melkemugg]

I think SKY wants to show muscles and ride the big climb hard. Maybe Garmin wants to be aggressive as well. Im fairly sure that sprinters will be lost, but maybe catching up again. S strong sprinter like sagan is the obvious choice for the stage tho, but i hope for someone else.

No one believing a break can finish?

 

[hrotha]

No idea why the last climb is 3rd category and not 4rd. In the Giro this climb woudn't even be categorized

Climbs are categorized according to many criteria, one of which is "what will be better to animate the race at this point?"

 

[Dutchsmurf]

I think SKY wants to show muscles and ride the big climb hard. Maybe Garmin wants to be aggressive as well. Im fairly sure that sprinters will be lost, but maybe catching up again. S strong sprinter like sagan is the obvious choice for the stage tho, but i hope for someone else.

No one believing a break can finish?

Why would Sky waste any energy on this stage? Sagan and his team I can understand, but Sky won't do more than keeping Froome out of problem.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

snipped..

No one believing a break can finish?

With everybody on same time, its pretty hard to see a successful break.

 

[Afrank]

With the crash today I think Cav will be more motivated to get a win. Plus he's been climbing very well this year and if Kittel is dropped (very likely considering his history) he should be able to still take yellow. Will be hard with Tony missing from his leadout, but I think he can pull it off. He's survived over harder stages than this before after all.

Sagan and Kristoff to also contend/take the win if Cav isn't there.

 

[burning]

With the crash today I think Cav will be more motivated to get a win. Plus he's been climbing very well this year and if Kittel is dropped (very likely considering his history) he should be able to still take yellow. Will be hard with Tony missing from his leadout, but I think he can pull it off. He's survived over harder stages than this before after all.

Sagan and Kristoff to also contend/take the win if Cav isn't there.

It is pretty much impossible for him to get yellow (He needs to gap whole field by 1 second)
Edit: Actually, Samuel Dumoulin might get yellow jersey, it would be really awesome imo (He was 6th yesterday)

 

[Erik_R]

There will be carnage on the way up the big climb. The peloton will break up and theres going to be a lot of gaps. Over the top an elite group of 30-40 riders will start the ascend.

But 60 clicks downhill will leave opportunity for some riders to get back up the leading group and to contest the sprint.

Among them, i see:
- kristoff (guy is a tough nail - look at his classiv season!)
- Sagan (hes gonna be there, might be part of "elite group")
- Gilbert (suprise surprise!)
- Voeckler
- Chavanel

I see Sagan taking this one. But i hope for Chavanel ! GO GO

 

[manafana]

sagan surely hurting a little today big nassty crash, dont see it for the pure sprinters.

 

[Simply The Best]

Hopefully the race breaks up early so we don't have a mass sprint to the line with yellow still up for grabs though I'm not hopeful.

 

[Erik_R]

Hopefully the race breaks up early so we don't have a mass sprint to the line with yellow still up for grabs though I'm not hopeful.

there will be bigger gaps in stage 3

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Mmmmm

What an interesting Forum!
After being initially shocked by the consensus view that most sprinters are in contention to win the stage, it seems evident that the most important factor is how hard the peloton drives it.
I agree that the big GC teams will probably sit back, although it is very possible that Sky would like to display their Team dominance early on. Is Saxo gonna give Sky a shock by driving themselves? Both these scenarios would undo all Sprinter Teams - except Sagan. If this doesnt unfold then surely Cannondale will push hard tomorrow to undo Cavendish who is realistically the only one who could challenge For The Win.
If Cavendish makes it back to the peloton, and coach incidents aside, then Cav FTW.
Could be a great stage. Will be watching at Vizzavona!

 

[King Boonen]

I hate to say it, but while the roads across Corsica are great for a stage, the roads around Ajaccio are TERRIBLE for a stage finish. That being said, based on where they put the stage finish, they probably should have used the Chemin de Saint Antoine rather than the Boulevard Tino Rossi/Route des Sanguimaires for the stage finish.

Wait, the Bloodthirsty Road? That's a joke right?!

 

[babastooey]

With the crash today affecting certain riders health, wouldn't they need to take it easy tomorrow? And if so, would teams push the pace of Stage 2 in order to take advantage of that, whether it be for the stage win, a later starting position in the TTT, a leader's jersey, or for the overall outcome in Paris?

Does that in any way affect how teams will approach tomorrow?

 

[Alpechraxler]

The climb can only shed the cripples.

 

[Cookster15]

it seems evident that the most important factor is how hard the peloton drives it)

Just catching up on this thread but looking at the profile of stage two what about the rather large lumps in the middle of the stage (Cat 2/3) ? Everone seems to be ignoring this. Any sort of pace in that section will shell all the sprinters I'd have thought? Or is everyone saying it will come back together before the short 1k hill prior to the finish?

 

[DirtyWorks]

...it will come back together before the short 1k hill prior to the finish?

IMHO, that is the likely outcome. The finish might make some gaps that become important later.

 

[blaxland]

Bunch gallop today the catergorized climbs are to far from the finish.Cavendish,then Sagan and Kittel.(goss to finish some obscure 8th or 9th place)

 

[TourOfTexas]

The Cat 3 climb is longer and steeper than the Cat 2? lolwut

 

[The Hitch]

The Cat 3 climb is longer and steeper than the Cat 2? lolwut

I guess in this case it could be seen as the same climb and they are just putting 2 gpm points on the climb, less points at the middle and more right at the top.I do see your point though.

 

[DirtyWorks]

With the crash today affecting certain riders health, wouldn't they need to take it easy tomorrow? And if so, would teams push the pace of Stage 2 in order to take advantage of that, whether it be for the stage win, a later starting position in the TTT, a leader's jersey, or for the overall outcome in Paris?

Does that in any way affect how teams will approach tomorrow?

Haha. Nobody is taking it easy tomorrow. Perhaps strategically losing time over the next few days is a better way to describe it.

The competitions for jerseys will shape the race through the middle of the stage. That long drag after the climbs is perfect for a large group to catch a smaller one.

Remember, the race is three weeks, so pushing the pace tomorrow will definitely hurt week two and definitely week three.

 

[Afrank]

Just catching up on this thread but looking at the profile of stage two what about the rather large lumps in the middle of the stage (Cat 2/3) ? Everone seems to be ignoring this. Any sort of pace in that section will shell all the sprinters I'd have thought? Or is everyone saying it will come back together before the short 1k hill prior to the finish?

Doubt they'll race it hard, too early and too easy a stage for the GC teams to go hard on. Sprinter teams will bring it all back together. 60K of downhill will give any sprinter that does fall back on it plenty of time to get back.