Flamin said:How does an easier finale give the break a higher chance to succeed? It's quite the opposite, since there's no reason for the sprinter teams to hold back in the final 40k (if their guy is still on board), and they can make up a lot of time there of course.
Stages that are difficult in the middle but easy in the end usually go to breaks, because if the break is strong they can get a lot of time in the middle section. If it's a hard stage throughout, the break might still get it, but there is likely to be more racing from the GC guys.
Off course if the sprinters really want it they can get it tomorrow, sure thing. But they have to get a bit organised, work together, and not let a strong break go away.