2013 Tour of Oman (11th-16th February), 2.HC

[Maaaaaaaarten]

whats a direct translation? googles offering doesnt make a lot of sense to me

It's a reference to a Flemish TV show (also watched a lot in the Netherlands) for kids.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPtTN5Jw3mM

 

[El Pistolero]

whats a direct translation? googles offering doesnt make a lot of sense to me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPtTN5Jw3mM

 

[GazelleFormula]

https://twitter.com/NikiTerpstra/status/301348219848364032

Haha, nice one Niki ;-)

 

[theyoungest]

https://twitter.com/NikiTerpstra/status/301348219848364032

Haha that's genius.

Indeed, if you're not Flemish or Dutch there's no point in translating.

 

[Miburo]

So if i got it right: Contador attacked the sky train multiple times and was ahead but got taken in the descent.

Well i called it that he was gonna do it but that's not really hard since Contador always does it

Already my favorite moment despite not seeing it: Contador attacking the sky train

The seconds he lost isn't an issue, besides we all know Contador sucks at sprinting.

Green mountain should be awesome.

 

[del1962]

So if i got it right: Contador attacked the sky train multiple times and was ahead but got taken in the descent.

Well i called it that he was gonna do it but that's not really hard since Contador always does it

Already my favorite moment despite not seeing it: Contador attacking the sky train

The seconds he lost isn't an issue, besides we all know Contador sucks at sprinting.

Green mountain should be awesome.

How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.

 

[pdluz7]

So if i got it right: Contador attacked the sky train multiple times and was ahead but got taken in the descent.

Well i called it that he was gonna do it but that's not really hard since Contador always does it

Already my favorite moment despite not seeing it: Contador attacking the sky train

The seconds he lost isn't an issue, besides we all know Contador sucks at sprinting.

Green mountain should be awesome.

Yes
Nibal: Alberto Contador "ha sido el mejor en el ascenso" http://www.esciclismo.com/ampliada.asp?Id=24820&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[barmaher]

But what is the clinic comment he makes?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.

You're not allowed to use logic about Contador; everything is a sign of his strength.

 

[theyoungest]

But what is the clinic comment he makes?

He's just joking around a bit with the cero cero cero cero cinco remark. It's a multi-layered joke

 

[LaFlorecita]

But what is the clinic comment he makes?

The 0.00005 thing so nothing really clinic-y.

How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.

Where can you see who were over the climb first?

 

[MADRAZO]

ok can we put this to bed now. i'm not going to go through every bookmaker.

The biggest online bookmaker is Paddy Power. It has 3 Australian affiliates. In all of those 4, in Stage 1, Peter Sagan and Matt Goss were historic favorite, Kittel was 8/1 4th favourite.

After some gambling by us all, Kittel was made favourite.

exactly the same for stage 2 check the price history. Kittel ws 13/8 favourite at 6.15 GMT last evening, Sagan was 3rd favourite at 10/1 behind Goss.

If you doubt me, by all means then go and check as to when they opened their markets. BET365 made their market quite late last night as did Sporting Bet.

I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.

Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.

 

[HiCadence]

What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?

 

[Lanark]

What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?

Very slim.

 

[wheelie1977]

I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.

Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.

How can I trust you

Look this was all a timing issue. Paddy Power & its brother and its sister priced up very early. They got taken to the cleaners. I wholeheardedly agree that they are not the best when looking at prices as to who the favourite is but no one is debating who the REAL favourite should have been. So everything that is argued here after that point is irrelevant. The earlier poster simply stated that Sagan was the favourite in BET365. There is no doubt he was. But BET365 didn't put their market online for about 4 hours after Paddy Power had offered theirs. Regardless of whether they had their own pricing or not, BET365 must have laughed a little and saw the price of Sagan plummet between 6.15 and 7 o clock GMT last night. Paddy power then pulled the plug. BET365 and others then come rolling into the night sky with their market which, shock horror disbelief!, has Sagan as favourite Totally unconnected to all the betting that had gone on in the Paddy Power markets, i'm sure....

anyway, this is a cycling forum, not a bookies forum. we were all lucky to get 10/1 about today's win with the Irish bookmaker. It should be dropped.

Who for tomorrow? I'd imagine Sagan will wheelie his way to the finish but Green Edge could have a few spoilers for the minor placings.

Could Contador attack a la Velits 2012 and repel the chasers this time ? Nibali and co lost seconds to Sagan here last year. Could be a chance for one of the climbers to take a chance.

 

[maltiv]

What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?

Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.

 

[the asian]

Milan-San Remo is a lottery race, he doesn't want to build his season around it because of that.

He should try and win it soon. No point trying to win the same monument over and over again, once you've won it.

 

[The Hitch]

Very slim.

Ebh and visconti did well before, though field was crapper then, and i don't think sagan would bother.

Funnily though kirby said about sagan today "gts will soon start falling his way". And until then i thought he was looking more.knowledgeable than usual.

 

[theyoungest]

Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.

He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.

 

[LaFlorecita]

He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.

30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic

 

[Miburo]

How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.

Well Saxo site says otherwise but ok you might think that's subjective.

But then Nibali, a guy who was there at the climb, said Contador was the strongest on the climb.

So yeah

 

[theyoungest]

30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic

He already has 21 seconds to Contador. He'll win tomorrow's stage as well, maybe once again with a small gap.

 

[maltiv]

He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.

Not really. EBH and Visconti's results on Green Mountain were mainly caused by the split in the crosswinds. That's unlikely to happen again. Also, EBH is a lot more of a diesel than Sagan is. Sagan is of course far superior on short hills, but on long climbs EBH is probably better (although it's hard to judge since Sagan often seems to give up rather than try).

But yeah, there's no evidence than Sagan is better than last year, when he was dropped easily. And the field is much stronger this year. So there's no hope.

 

[theyoungest]

Not really. EBH and Visconti's results on Green Mountain were mainly caused by the split in the crosswinds. That's unlikely to happen again. Also, EBH is a lot more of a diesel than Sagan is. Sagan is of course far superior on short hills, but on long climbs EBH is probably better (although it's hard to judge since Sagan often seems to give up rather than try).

But yeah, there's no evidence than Sagan is better than last year, when he was dropped easily. And the field is much stronger this year. So there's no hope.

Last year Tony Gallopin finished within 40 secs from Nibali. Okay, Nibali is no Contador, but who knows what a motivated Sagan might be able to do.

But he'll probably once again start softpedaling in the first k of climbing

 

[Lance Armstrong]

He won't even try and save his legs for the next stage.

Stage victory > 15-th place in GC.