2013 World Championships Firenze. Who will win?

[SafeBet]

I think it'll be an everyone-against-Canc race. He is brutally strong.

Maybe too strong for his own vood at the moment. Everybody now knows this and will ride against him. We've seen in the past it can hurt his chances.

 

[murali]

i think this is going to be a 3-way battle between canc, sagan, and one more rider.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

i think this is going to be a 3-way battle between canc, sagan, and one more rider.

Nibali will definitely be there.

 

[Oliver]

Andy isn't riding...

I expect Cancellara/Sagan/Nibali/Kwiatkowski.

Voted 4 Nibali but it will be difficult!

4 the Colombians, I think Uran will be the best.

 

[ElDepo]

This will be a great race and should have a worthy winner. 3 big favorites Nibali, Sagan, and Cancellara. My outside pick is Chris Horner. My main pick is Sagan. He can climb and time trial and sprint better than the rest. I would like Cancellara to win, but in a two up sprint he will be second to Sagan. I think if a gap happens for Cancellara on the descent he will be gone. With Horner he can get caught on that descent. This is a course that favors a rider who can win solo, not a lot of pros can do that. Here's a video preview of the course.

http://www.worldscourse.com/

 

[Eshnar]

Imho Nibali is the biggest favourite for a podium spot. And the least favourite for the win

 

[Netserk]

Imho Nibali is the biggest favourite for a podium spot. And the least favourite for the win

With Canc being so strong, there could occur a Mendrisio like scenario, where everyone will expect Canc to close the gaps, and Nibali could win it like Evans.

 

[Red Rick]

Imho Nibali is the biggest favourite for a podium spot. And the least favourite for the win

Yeah, If Canc isn't totally dropped on the hills I can't possibly see Nibali finishing before him

 

[Eshnar]

With Canc being so strong, there could occur a Mendrisio like scenario, where everyone will expect Canc to close the gaps, and Nibali could win it like Evans.

do you believe Nibs is underrated to this extent by the peloton?

 

[Netserk]

do you believe Nibs is underrated to this extent by the peloton?

No, but I do expect all the Spaniards to look at Canc to close any gap. Afterall they have practised that discipline a lot in the Vuelta

 

[Eshnar]

No, but I do expect all the Spaniards to look at Canc to close any gap. Afterall they have practised that discipline a lot in the Vuelta

the Spaniards will certainly do that, but the rest of the peloton no

 

[Gugashwill]

I wonder if Cancellara will fool anybody with this hesitation of declaring his WC goal?

 

[Alpechraxler]

This world course vids make me wanna book cycling holidays in italy.

 

[SKSemtex]

This world course vids make me wanna book cycling holidays in italy.

Toscany in September is "place to be" even without WC. WC just make it "must be". Fiesole houses will have golden season

 

[Shardi]

Making a Worlds / LBL comparison

* Worlds course slightly longer.

* Discounting that lone hill on the run-in to the circuit, there are 10 (+10) hills in the last 166 km, 16.6km apart. Liege has 10 hills in the last 100km. But the LBL course is never flat, not even on the first part, while the Worlds course has a flat 100km intro.

* The position of the 2nd worlds hill, makes the truly flat part only 5km per lap. This little lump makes the fiesole and lbl courses more similar, than a course with only the big hill present. All in all, hill density is pretty similar but the stretch with marked climbs starts earlier at the worlds.

* The worlds main hill looks like Col du Rosier with the hill profile reversed. The second hill is a 600m 8% springboard.

In general, the fiesole course favours an aerobic climber (nibali, valverde, rodriguez, colombians) slightly more than a punchy unaerobic classics rider (gilbert, cancellara), compared to LBL. The course length makes it a brutally tough race in terms of endurance. Its truly for riders who can handle the monument type of race.
In genral, I think that the endurance part (classics pedigree) plays a bigger role than general 4km climb ability or whatever.

Cancellara, Gilbert, Valverde, Rodriguez, Gerrans have all won in the toughest races. Nibali, Dan Martin, Gasparotto, Iglinsky has been up there in LBL. The colombians betancour, uran, quintana are ideally suited to these kinds of climbs.

Hard call. However, the general rule says: Look for the worlds winner within the vuelta field. If thats the case, then its between:

Valverde, Nibali, Rodriguez, Gilbert, Cancellara, Moreno if he holds form.

 

[del1962]

From the Vuelta field you have missed out Eddie

 

[Shardi]

From the Vuelta field you have missed out Eddie

True, considering his hill pedigree last worlds as well as decent shape right now. If he can hold on to attacks then he is very likely
a winner in a small group sprint in the flat run-in to the line.

 

[del1962]

True, considering his hill pedigree last worlds as well as decent shape right now. If he can hold on to attacks then he is very likely
a winner in a small group sprint in the flat run-in to the line.

It is a shame Norway only have 3 riders, will be interesting which one collects the bottles.

 

[fraserhughes]

True, considering his hill pedigree last worlds as well as decent shape right now. If he can hold on to attacks then he is very likely
a winner in a small group sprint in the flat run-in to the line.

The problem EBH has (actually in many races not just the worlds) is that any small group finish he's in is also likely to contain Sagan who will outsprint him 9 times out of 10.

 

[The Hitch]

Good post shardi.

Though I would like to add 2 or 3 more differences between lbl and the worlds.

1 - the worlds is the worlds. Raced differently even in this era of conservative racing, on that 1 day in September / October, they are willing to go from further.

2- multiple leaders on 1 team e.g. spain and Colombia. Ssmu, Contador Moreno might not the type of domestiques who are willing to drag back breaks till la redoute.

3-The quality of riders will be higher. Sagan and cancellara for 1 who don't usually do lbl. Also gt riders who don't always do lbl will be here. Gt riders who never do it. Gt riders who do lbl but don't really peak for it. Etc


As for your small list of favourites selected from the vuelta, I would add 1 name and 1 name only - Rigoberto Uran.

To me he has shown, especially with the Olympics last year, and he hadn't even done the tour, as well as of course his lombardia performances and the occasional lbl one, that he can be an absolute superheavyweight in races like this.

 

[Shardi]

Good post shardi.

Though I would like to add 2 or 3 more differences between lbl and the worlds.

1 - the worlds is the worlds. Raced differently even in this era of conservative racing, on that 1 day in September / October, they are willing to go from further.

2- multiple leaders on 1 team e.g. spain and Colombia. Ssmu, Contador Moreno might not the type of domestiques who are willing to drag back breaks till la redoute.

3-The quality of riders will be higher. Sagan and cancellara for 1 who don't usually do lbl. Also gt riders who don't always do lbl will be here. Gt riders who never do it. Gt riders who do lbl but don't really peak for it. Etc


As for your small list of favourites selected from the vuelta, I would add 1 name and 1 name only - Rigoberto Uran.

To me he has shown, especially with the Olympics last year, and he hadn't even done the tour, as well as of course his lombardia performances and the occasional lbl one, that he can be an absolute superheavyweight in races like this.

Defo agree with you. Who takes the lead in each team is more complex here. Team tactics with respect to the course, are not as cemented as in LBL. Definitely makes the outcome harder to predict.

Uran has the pedigree for sure. He is 13th in the vuelta at the moment. Is his form on the rise you reckon?

 

[barmaher]

Good post shardi.

Agreed....but what is the altitude gain in LBL? Significantly less than in this year's WC, I wager.

 

[tomorrow]

hard to tell the actual winner, but it surely could be cancellara or sagan, or gc guys like nibali, quintana, valverde and betancur might do well too. What I am looking forward to is that with the non zero possibility of a puncher winning, the gc guys will have to start the action sooner then on the last fiesole, which would mean fast pace and the peloton size getting smaller and smaller sooner than on the monuments.

 

[The Hitch]

Defo agree with you. Who takes the lead in each team is more complex here. Team tactics with respect to the course, are not as cemented as in LBL. Definitely makes the outcome harder to predict.

Uran has the pedigree for sure. He is 13th in the vuelta at the moment. Is his form on the rise you reckon?

I don't know, but he does have another 3 weeks to perfect it.

But also with Uran his best performances do seem to come from nowhere. He did absolutely nothing before the Giro this year for example and came 2nd.

Olympics last year is an even better example, with only a meh TDP between the giro and that.

He then didnt do much for anothr 2 months before 1st Piedmonte and 3rd Lombardia. His original Lombardia podium also came with no prior backup.

 

[Shardi]

On the shorter uphill finishes so far this vuelta, Uran has been there with valverde & co. Seems to be doing good in this terrain at the moment. Should be a contender.